EU coordination in Greece: "forced" Europeanization under the MoU? / Calliope Spanou -- EU coordination in Ireland : centralization to master the crisis / Brigid Laffan -- EU coordination in Portugal : continuity and flexibility in a Troika Regime / José M. Magone -- EU coordination in Cyprus : the limits of Europeanization in times of crisis / Adonis Pegasiou -- EU coordination in Italy : (predominantly) internally driven changes in times of crisis / Sabrina Ragone
Le secteur sucrier européen a subit une réforme en profondeur en 2006. Les conséquences de cette réforme risquent d'être très importantes. En effet, l'UE pourrait devenir importateur de sucre, alors qu'elle était encore le deuxième exportateur mondial il y a quelques années. Des modifications importantes du secteur sucrier ont été réalisées depuis 18 mois. Elles sont cependant plus le résultat d'une délocalisation de la production que d'un réel abandon des quotas de production. La réduction de la production n'est pas suffisante pour répondre aux engagements de l'Union européennes concernant de nouvelles importations, conformément aux accords préférentiels, ni à la réduction des exportations subventionnées imposés par le panel de l'OMC de 2005. Les auteurs présentent ici les réformes récentes de l'Union européenne ainsi que des simulations de modification du secteur sucrier européen, dans le cadre d'un accord à l'OMC et d'un respect des objectifs d'incorporation de biocarburants dans les carburants utilisés dans le transport.
Im Artikel werden die ökonomischen Effekte der Agrarpolitik in Slowenien, vor allem in der Tierproduktion, in der Vorbereitungsperiode des Anschlusses an die Europäischen Union erörtert. Zwei unterschiedliche Modelle wurden ausgesucht: Der Agricultural Policy Analysis Simulator (APAS) und die Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM), mit denen die Markttendenzen (Angebot und Nachfrage), die Außenhandelsströme (Selbstversorgung), die Einkommenssituation sowie die Konkurrenzindikatoren und die Wohlfahrtseffektefür fünf verschiedene Umstände zwischen 1997 (als Ausgangslage) und 2003 eingeschätztwerden. Das CEFTA Handelsabkommen könnte die wirtschaftliche Situation des slowenischen Agrarsektors deutlich verschlechtern, der Brutto-Rohertrag könnte um etwa 16% fallen und das Einkommen um zwei Drittel im Vergleich zur Basissituation (die Fortsetzung der bisherigen Politik) sinken. Der Reformvorschlag der slowenischen Agrarpolitik könnte diese Verluste im allgemeinen ausgleichen, allerdings nur dann, wenn sich die Preis- und Einkommenslage zwischen den Produkten signifikant verändern sollte. Die Rinder-, Geflügel und Weizenproduktion und im allgemeinen auch die Tierproduktion können deutlich reduziert werden. Eine Ãœbernahme der im Rahmen der Agenda 2000 beschlossenen Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) der Europäischen Union könnte die wirtschaftliche Situation im Agrarsektor Sloweniens verbessern, was besonders den Rindersektor betrifft. Die Ergebnisse sind von der Zahlung der Ausgleichszahlungen abhängig. Die GAP könnte auch den Schweine- und Geflügelmarkt insoweit liberalisieren, dass sich die Lage der Produzenten in diesen zwei Sektoren, die in Slowenien noch immer relativ geschützt sind, signifikant veschlechtert. (Schlüsselwörter: Slowenien, Agrarpolitik, EU, CEFTA, Integrationseffekte) ; Objective of the paper is to estimate the economic effects of possible pre-accession agricultural policy scenarios for Slovene agriculture with special emphasis on livestock production. Agricultural Policy Analysis Simulator (APAS) and Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) methodology has been applied to estimate likely market (supply and demand changes), trade flow (self-sufficiency and international trade) and income trends as well as competitiveness and welfare effects of five policy scenarios for period 1997 (base year) till 2003. CEFTA Agreement proved to be poor solution for Slovene agriculture, reducing agricultural output by 16% and income to one third in comparison with baseline. Proposed reform of national agricultural policy would bring producers ' losses back, however, situation in comparison with baseline scenario (continuation of current policy) will be quite different, discouraging still beef, poultry and wheat sector, and lowering production in all livestock sectors. Complete adoption of reformed EU CAP according to Agenda 2000 would improve general picture of Slovene agriculture, among livestock foremost cattle production. Beef producers woidd benefit the most, followed by dairy farmers. EU policy with almost complete liberalised pork and poultry market proved as bad prospect for intensive industrialised farming, far from being competitive on open market. ; Objective of the paper is to estimate the economic effects of possible pre-accession agricultural policy scenarios for Slovene agriculture with special emphasis on livestock production. Agricultural Policy Analysis Simulator (APAS) and Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) methodology has been applied to estimate likely market (supply and demand changes), trade flow (self-sufficiency and international trade) and income trends as well as competitiveness and welfare effects of five policy scenarios for period 1997 (base year) till 2003. CEFTA Agreement proved to be poor solution for Slovene agriculture, reducing agricultural output by 16% and income to one third in comparison with baseline. Proposed reform of national agricultural policy would bring producers ' losses back, however, situation in comparison with baseline scenario (continuation of current policy) will be quite different, discouraging still beef, poultry and wheat sector, and lowering production in all livestock sectors. Complete adoption of reformed EU CAP according to Agenda 2000 would improve general picture of Slovene agriculture, among livestock foremost cattle production. Beef producers woidd benefit the most, followed by dairy farmers. EU policy with almost complete liberalised pork and poultry market proved as bad prospect for intensive industrialised farming, far from being competitive on open market.
In this article, we explain why the current climate policy mix of the European Union (EU), consisting of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and overlapping policies, is incoherent with respect to emission abatement and cost-effectiveness. The concept of policy coherence guides our analysis in identifying the EU ETS' current dynamic supply adjustment mechanism, the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), to be at the heart of the shortcomings of current market design. Incoherence emerges due to the MSR's quantity-based indicator for scarcity. It only works well for current and past demand fluctuations, but not for anticipated changes in demand, e.g., caused by a member state's fossil-fuel phase-out. As a result, instead of fostering synergies as intended, the MSR undermines coherence by creating backfiring interactions and making precise predictions of overlapping policies' impacts close to impossible. Considering the European Commission's reform proposal of July 2021, we argue that a change in the MSR's parametrisation leaves the fundamental cause of incoherence unaddressed. Based on recent findings in the economics literature, we propose introducing a price-based indicator for scarcity as a solution to substantially reduce the current incoherence of the policy mix.
Similar to other countries in the European periphery, Kosovo lacks competitiveness, has adopted the euro as its national currency and started an integration process with the EU. The next milestone in this process is the signing of an FTA with the EU. We simulate full trade liberalization vis-à-vis the EU, using the Global Simulation Model. Our results suggest a slight output loss in almost all industries in Kosovo due to a drop in prices. Moreover the government budget is expected to lose about 5% of its revenues due to the tariff cut. A shift towards more direct taxation and measures aimed at improving the investment climate in Kosovo are recommended.
The economic theory of international trade has changed dramatically over the last decade by admitting into its mainstream a body of literature that focuses on the implications of monopolistic and oligopolistic elements in international markets. By applying the tools of the "new" industrial organization in an international context, two new classes of models have emerged: models of intra-industry trade and models of strategic trade policy. The policy implications of models of strategic trade policy were quite disturbing for the economics profession, since these models demonstrated that the classical harmony between national and cosmopolitan welfare maximization does not exist if one assumes opportunities for strategic manipulation of oligopolistic international industries. This article reviews two prominent models of strategic trade policy—the Brander-Spencer model and the Krugman model—and relates them to more familiar earlier concepts, such as Stackelberg's asymmetrical duopoly solution and the venerable infant-industry argument for government intervention. The primary purpose of this article, however, is to provide a synopsis of the large literature addressing the question of whether models of strategic trade policy can give guidance for government policy.
There is increasing evidence suggesting that climate change will negatively impact agricultural production in South Asia. Decreased domestic production may make South Asian countries more dependent on imports. The extent to which South Asia will need to increase its imports as a result of climate change will presumably depend on the degree to which the latter will affect domestic output. The effects of climate change on agriculture may well differ substantially for individual South Asian countries and indeed for regions within a given country which can be approximated by food production units. This calls for an analysis of climate change effects on trade flows under alternative trade policy regimes both for agriculture and non-agricultural sectors. The specific objectives of the paper include the following: analyze the extent to which agricultural production in South Asia and elsewhere in the world may be affected by different scenarios regarding climate change; analyze the extent to which changes in domestic production in South Asia resulting from climate change will lead to increased demand for imports by South Asian countries; analyze the effects of increased import demand in South Asia and changing exportable surpluses elsewhere on world market prices of major agricultural commodities consumed in South Asia; to the extent that South Asian governments allow transmission of changes in world market prices to domestic prices, analyze the potential welfare effects of changes in the latter; analyze if, and to what extent, worldwide trade liberalization and implementation of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) will dampen the effects of climate change on domestic agricultural prices in South Asia. In this context, the report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two describes the methodology used - with particular attention to how different models and modeling techniques are linked to produce an as accurate as possible assessment based on state-of-the-art knowledge. Chapter three provides an up-to-date analysis of trade flows and policies, and production patterns for key food products in South Asia to explain the context in which climate change is taking place. Chapter four describes the climate change scenarios and illustrates their consequences for crop yields at a global level and for South Asia - and in particular shows the vulnerability of the region to these changes. Baseline design, simulations, and results are discussed in chapter five. The final chapter six provides a short summary, discusses the limitations of the analysis, and derives suggestions and guidelines for future research.
AbstractWe examine the effects of multilateral trade reform on South Korean agriculture and its economy. We first measure agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and its components (technological and technical efficiency change) by estimating a production function and stochastic frontier using data from Korean Statistical Information Service during 1970‐2009. We then examine the sources of South Korean agricultural TFP with an emphasis on trade openness, and agricultural research and extension. We find that TFP elasticity with respect to trade openness is significantly larger after 1994 relative to the pre‐reform period. Further, Korean farmers have passed on productivity gains from trade reform to consumers in the form of lower prices.
