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AN EXAMPLE OF THE USE OF ANALOGIES,THE AUTHOR INDICATES THAT THEY MAY BE EITHER USEFUL,NECESSARY OR HARMFUL. THE DEGREE OF CORRECPONDENCE BETWEENTHE MODEL AND THE REAL WORLD DEPENDS ESSENTIALLY ON THE TRUTH OF THE THEORY THAT UNDERLYIES THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE MODEL. A SIMULATION IS A LONG CALCULATION AND A COMPARISON BETWEEN CALCULATED RESULTS AND REAL RESULTS.

AS A MEANS OF BEING ABLE TO DESCRIBE SITUATION IN TERMS OF POWER AND CONFLICT, WE WOULD HAVE TO BUILD UP INFORMATION AND WAYS OF ANALYSING THAT INFORMATION, SO GOOD, THAT WE WOULD INDEED BE ABLE TO EXPLAIN POLITICAL EVENTS.

EACH INDIVIDUAL MAY HAVE HIS OWN PRIVATE IDEAL OF HUMAN NATURE, BUT FOR THE PURPOSE OF POLITICAL ARGUMENT PEOPLE MUST BE TAKEN AS THEY ARE. THE INSTITUTION MUST BE FITTED TO TO THE PEOPLE RATHER THAN THE PEOPLE TO THE INSTITUTIONS.

Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Contents -- List of Illustrations -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- PART 1 -- 1. From Red to Black -- 2. Cointelpro -- 3. Red Stains and Black Robes -- 4. Red Threats and Silver Coins -- 5. Red Rum and Moving Vans -- 6. Epilogue -- PART 2 -- Elegy for Stanley Gorski: A Play by Emanuel Fried -- Drop Hammer: A Play by Emanuel Fried -- The Dodo Bird: A Play by Emanuel Fried -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index -- About the Author -- About the Series -- Other Titles in the Series -- Back Cover.

Front Cover -- International Futures: Building and Using Global Models -- Copyright -- Contents -- Prologue -- Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations -- Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases -- Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1. What Path Are We On? -- 1.2. What Leverage Do We Have? -- 1.3. How Do We Address Uncertainty? -- 1.4. The Plan of the Volume -- References -- Chapter 2: Building a Global Model: The Toolkit -- 2.1. Identifying Concepts Individually and in Systems -- 2.1.1. Identifying Concepts -- 2.1.2. Recognizing Systems -- 2.2. Assembling Data -- 2.3. Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions -- 2.4. Building Dynamic Formulations: Equations and Much More -- 2.4.1. Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type -- 2.4.2. Making Choices at the Systems Level -- 2.4.2.1. Identifying Important Feedback Loops -- 2.4.2.2. Building Algorithms -- 2.4.3. Making Choices at the Equation Level -- 2.4.3.1. Seeing That Formulations Do Not All Merit the Same Attention -- 2.4.3.2. Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket -- 2.4.3.3. Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers -- 2.4.3.4. Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points -- 2.5. Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty -- 2.5.1. Building Alternative Scenarios -- 2.5.2. Exploring Transformative Uncertainty -- 2.6. Assessing and Addressing Model Strengths and Weaknesses -- 2.6.1. Verification, Validation, and Accreditation -- 2.6.2. Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission -- References -- Chapter 3: The Evolution of Global Modeling -- 3.1. Early Global Modeling With Multiple-Issue, Long-Term Systems -- 3.1.1. Foundational Work -- 3.1.2. The First Wave -- 3.1.3. New Capabilities -- 3.2. Integrated Assessment Models -- 3.2.1. Comparative Use of IAMs.

The Caribbean area projects an image--not entirely accurate--of instability, and it is within that context that the United States and Cuba, the region's chief protagonists, struggle. This book explores in detail the history and nature of Cuba's influence in the Commonwealth Caribbean, Mexico, and Central and South America.

Across the nation, construction projects large and small-from hospitals to schools to simple home improvements-are spiraling out of control. Delays and cost overruns have come to seem "normal," even as they drain our wallets and send our blood pressure skyrocketing. In Broken Buildings, Busted Budgets, prominent construction attorney Barry B. LePatner builds a powerful case for change in America's sole remaining "mom and pop" industry-an industry that consumes 1.23 trillion and wastes at least 120 billion each year. With three decades of exper