Theory of an Emerging-State Actor: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) Case
In: Clancy, T. Theory of an Emerging-State Actor: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) Case †. Systems 2018, 6, 16. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems6020016
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In: Clancy, T. Theory of an Emerging-State Actor: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) Case †. Systems 2018, 6, 16. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems6020016
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In: Clancy, T. Application of Emerging-State Actor Theory: Analysis of Intervention and Containment Policies †. Systems 2018, 6, 17. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems6020017
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In: System dynamics review: the journal of the System Dynamics Society, Volume 40, Issue 2
ISSN: 1099-1727
AbstractA clear definition of system dynamics modeling can provide shared understanding and clarify the impact of the field. We introduce a set of characteristics that define quantitative system dynamics, selected to capture core philosophy, describe theoretical and practical principles, and apply to historical work but be flexible enough to remain relevant as the field progresses. The defining characteristics are: (1) models are based on causal feedback structure, (2) accumulations and delays are foundational, (3) models are equation‐based, (4) concept of time is continuous, and (5) analysis focuses on feedback dynamics. We discuss the implications of these principles and use them to identify research opportunities in which the system dynamics field can advance. These research opportunities include causality, disaggregation, data science and AI, and contributing to scientific advancement. Progress in these areas has the potential to improve both the science and practice of system dynamics. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.
In: System dynamics review: the journal of the System Dynamics Society, Volume 39, Issue 3, p. 277-294
ISSN: 1099-1727
In: System dynamics review: the journal of the System Dynamics Society, Volume 40, Issue 1
ISSN: 1099-1727
AbstractWhat are the root causes of mass violence terrorism? Examining this question led to a novel hypothesis that violent radicalization leading to terrorism operates as a system of social contagion. A terror contagion exploits existing grievances and moral outrage well suited for radicalizing within a high‐risk population. After a terrorist incident, media broadcasts of cultural scripts convey both a template violent ideology and a template method for mass violence. Radicalization can result when high‐risk people receive these cultural scripts sharing self‐similarity and notoriety bias to the perpetrator and their template ideology of grievance and outrage. Following the template method results in subsequent completed terror incidents creating their own media broadcasts, perpetuating the contagion. In this article, we share our methods, findings, and discuss the implications of a terror‐contagion hypothesis. We describe experiments and testable predictions to build confidence in the terror‐contagion hypothesis and our progress in them. © 2023 System Dynamics Society.
In: WPI Department of Social Science and Policy Studies Working Papers No. 2021-006
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