This book provides an overview of the GLOWA-Danube research project from 2001 to 2011, a transdisciplinary initiative which explores the future of water resources in the Upper Danube Basin. It documents the purpose and unique approach, architecture, methodologies, scenarios and results of the project, creating a scientific knowledge base for the dialogue of stakeholders and scientists. The book offers a possible blueprint for successful global change science through integrative and transdisciplinary co-creation of knowledge and orientation for regional adaptation within the context of the Future Earth research program.
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"Meine Heimat habe ich behalten", schrieb der 52jährige Hofmannsthal 1926 an den Schweizer Diplomaten Carl Jakob Burckhardt, "aber Vaterland habe ich keins mehr, als Europa" - und er fügte hinzu: "ich muß dies fest erfassen, nur die Klarheit bewahrt vor langsamer Selbstzerstörung. " Selbstzerstörung meint: "den Rest [des] Lebens in unfruchtbarer Verbitterung" darüber zu verlieren, daß mit dem Zusammenbruch Österreichs so viel Erhaltenswertes und Bewahrenswertes vernichtet wurde. Das Kriegsende hatte Hofmannsthal tief erschüttert: "Welche Welt, in die wir geraten sind", schrieb er: "Das nackte Gebälk tritt hervor und zittert bis in die Grundfeste." In den Jahren, die folgten, wurde ihm zur Gewißheit, daß sich nicht nur die europäische Landkarte verändert hatte, sondern daß die politischen und sozialen Umwälzungen, die dem verlorenen Krieg gefolgt waren, eine neue geistige Fundierung des alten Kontinents erforderten. Unablässig bewegte ihn die Frage: Was kann politisch und kulturell den Weg in die Zukunft weisen? Die Antwort führte ihn immer wieder zu Europa. Die 'Idee Europa' wurde für ihn zum "umfassendsten und wichtigsten Begriff" seiner Existenz: "[.] ich sehe nicht, welcher der Ströme des wirklichen geistigen Lebens [.] nicht durch eine mutige und nüchterne Geistesoperation gezwungen werden könnte, in das Becken dieses großen Begriffes zu münden."
Land-use decisions are made at the local level. They are influenced both by local factors and by global drivers and trends. These will most likely change over time e.g. due to political shocks, market developments or climate change. Hence, their influence should be taken into account when analysing and projecting local land-use decisions. We provide a set of mid-term scenarios of global drivers (until 2030) for use in regional and local studies on agriculture and land-use. In a participatory process, four important drivers are identified by experts from globally distributed regional studies: biofuel policies, increase in preferences for meat and dairy products in Asia, cropland expansion into uncultivated areas, and changes in agricultural productivity growth. Their impact on possible future developments of global and regional agricultural markets are analysed with a modelling framework consisting of a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop growth model. The business as usual (BAU) scenario causes production and prices of crops to rise over time. It also leads to a conversion of pasture land to cropland. Under different scenarios, global price changes range between −42 and +4% in 2030 compared to the BAU. An abolishment of biofuel targets does not significantly improve food security while an increased agricultural productivity and cropland expansion have a stronger impact on changes in food production and prices.
Land-use decisions are made at the local level. They are influenced both by local factors and by global drivers and trends. These will most likely change over time e.g. due to political shocks, market developments or climate change. Hence, their influence should be taken into account when analysing and projecting local land-use decisions. We provide a set of mid-term scenarios of global drivers (until 2030) for use in regional and local studies on agriculture and land-use. In a participatory process, four important drivers are identified by experts from globally distributed regional studies: biofuel policies, increase in preferences for meat and dairy products in Asia, cropland expansion into uncultivated areas, and changes in agricultural productivity growth. Their impact on possible future developments of global and regional agricultural markets are analysed with a modelling framework consisting of a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop growth model. The business as usual (BAU) scenario causes production and prices of crops to rise over time. It also leads to a conversion of pasture land to cropland. Under different scenarios, global price changes range between −42 and +4% in 2030 compared to the BAU. An abolishment of biofuel targets does not significantly improve food security while an increased agricultural productivity and cropland expansion have a stronger impact on changes in food production and prices.
As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2013, climate change will have significant impacts on all water sectors. Since water is essential for live, culture, economy and ecosystems, climate change adaptation is crucial. Therefore, a legal and political framework was established by the commissions of the European Union, the United Nations and on national levels. For the Danube River Basin (DRB), the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River got the mandate to develop an adaptation strategy in 2012 and to update this strategy in 2018. The natural science basis on which the adaptation strategy and its update are based on are two studies, conducted in 2011/2012 and updated and revised in 2017/18. Numerous documents from actual research and development projects and studies dealing with climate change and its impacts on water related issues were analysed in detail and the results summarised. It is agreed that temperature will increase basin-wide. The precipitation trend shows a strong northwest-southeast gradient and significant changes in seasonality. Runoff patterns will change and extreme weather events will intensify. However, the magnitude of the results shows a strong spatial variability due to the heterogeneity of the DRB., It is assessed that these changes will have mostly negative impacts on all water related sectors. Based on the scientific findings an approach for an improved basin-wide strategy on adaptation to climate change is developed. It includes guiding principles and five categories of adaptation measures targeting different objectives.
AbstractWater provision and distribution are subject to conflicts between users worldwide, with agriculture as a major driver of discords. Water sensitive ecosystems and their services are often impaired by man-made water shortage. Nevertheless, they are not sufficiently included in sustainability or risk assessments and neglected when it comes to distribution of available water resources. The herein presented contribution to the Sustainable Development Goals Clean Water and Sanitation (SDG 6) and Life on Land (SDG 15) is the Ecological Sustainability Assessment of Water distribution (ESAW-tool). The ESAW-tool introduces a watershed sustainability assessment that evaluates the sustainability of the water supply-demand ratio on basin level, where domestic water use and the water requirements of ecosystems are considered as most important water users. An ecological risk assessment estimates potential impacts of agricultural depletion of renewable water resources on (ground)water-dependent ecosystems. The ESAW-tool works in standard GIS applications and is applicable in basins worldwide with a set of broadly available input data. The ESAW-tool is tested in the Danube river basin through combination of high-resolution hydro-agroecological model data (hydrological land surface process model PROMET and groundwater model OpenGeoSys) and further freely available data (water use, biodiversity and wetlands maps). Based on the results, measures for more sustainable water management can be deduced, such as increase of rainfed agriculture near vulnerable ecosystems or change of certain crops. The tool can support decision making of authorities from local to national level as well as private enterprises who want to improve the sustainability of their supply chains.
In this paper we assess the irrigation water use in the Danube Basin, highlight its complexity, identify future challenges and show the relevance for a basin-wide integrative irrigation management plan as part of a more holistic and coherent resource policy. In this sense, we base our integrative regional assessments of the water-food-energy nexus on insights from an extensive review and scientific synthesis of the Danube Basin and region, experimental field studies on irrigation and agricultural water consumption, current irrigation related policies and strategies in most of the Danube countries, and regulatory frameworks on resources at European Union level. We show that a basin-wide integrative approach to water use calls for the evaluation of resource use trade-offs, resonates with the need for transdisciplinary research in addressing nexus challenges and supports integrative resource management policies within which irrigation water use represents an inherent part. In this respect, we propose a transdisciplinary research framework on sustainable irrigation water use in the Danube Basin. The findings were summarized into four interconnected problem areas in the Danube Basin, which directly or indirectly relate to irrigation strategies and resource policies: prospective water scarcity and Danube water connectedness, agricultural droughts, present and future level of potential yields, and science based proactive decision-making.
