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AbstractTransfer development rights (TDR) programs have been gaining popularity as a tool for farmland preservation, as they compensate landowners at minimal public cost. This study shows that despite their wide adoption, TDR programs do not save much farmland on the urban fringe. We use Department of Agriculture data and apply two quasi‐experimental methods, synthetic control, and difference‐in‐difference, to evaluate the effect of TDR programs on farm retention for three fringe metropolitan counties in the state of Maryland. We also compare land use patterns before and after TDR implementation in these counties. The result shows limited effects of TDR programs on farm preservation, even in Montgomery County, one of the national models for TDR programs. TDR programs do contribute to low and medium density residential development. This cautions observation planners about their enthusiasm toward TDR programs and highlights the difficulty of preserving farmland on the fringe of metropolitan regions. We compare the features of the studied TDR programs, and highlight those that account for the programs' relative success/failure. Based on these analyses, we make recommendations to planners to help improve TDR effectiveness.