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ABSTRACT
ObjectivesRheumatic heart disease remains a major public health concern in developing countries. Motivated by the lack of up-to-date epidemiologic data from endemic settings, we sought to quantity morbidity and mortality attributable the condition in Fiji, a middle-income country where a high prevalence has consistently been reported. Having resolved to undertake the analysis using the existing routine clinical and administrative data at our disposal, we first set out to develop a data linkage procedure robust to the inherent limitations of data from low resource settings.
ApproachRecords were available from four sources: an electronic patient information system, a database of death certificates, a disease control register, and echocardiography clinic registers. All referred to 2008-2012.
Throughout the design and calibration process we used 1,406 known duplications in the patient information system from which we calculated the sensitivity and specificity. After cleaning, standardisation and preliminary blocking, we categorised identifiers including names, dates and demographics into agreement, partial agreement, disagreement or missing, accounting for issues such as out of order or misspelt names. After concentrating true matches by further blocking, we estimated match and nonmatch probabilities using expectation maximisation under the Fellegi-Sunter model of record linkage. We then derived the posterior match probability taking into consideration the size of block and prior information about the probability a match be present given the demographics of the individual concerned. In its final configuration, with record pairs considered a match if they achieved a posterior probability of over 50%, our procedure identified the known duplications with sensitivity of 91.4% and specificity of 99.9%.
ResultsHaving identified 2,619 cases from the 1,773,999 records available, we used the linked data to make population-based estimates of prevalence using capture-recapture analyses and cause-specific mortality using relative survival methods, the first such estimates for a developing country. Moreover, in sensitivity analyses, we found that changing posterior probability threshold above which record pairs were considered a match had limited impact on the results.
ConclusionAlthough data linkage is widely used for epidemiologic research in high-income settings, its application to developing countries has been limited. We developed and validated a data linkage procedure that can be used to turn largely unstudied routine clinical and administrative data into robust estimates of disease burden. With the growing availability of computerized data, we propose our approach has strong potential to assist the production of disease burden statistics in developing countries where civil registration systems are weak.

Die Stadtbevölkerung Indonesiens wächst unaufhaltsam. Gegen Ende dieses Jahrhunderts wird sich ihre Zahl auf fast 40 Millionen Menschen belaufen. Dargestellt werden Ursachen, Probleme und Auswirkungen von Migration, Städtewachstum und Landflucht, die bevölkerungs- und wirtschaftspolitischen Maßnahmen der Regierung sowie Möglichkeiten, auf die Wanderungsbewegungen Einfluß zu nehmen. (DÜI-Xyl)

Fluctuations in international trade, financial markets, and commodity prices, as well as the tendency of institutions to favour the interests of the better-off and powerful, pose risks for citizens of all countries. This volume examines the factors that are most likely to facilitate economic growth in low-, middle-, and high-income economies.

Epidemiological data regarding group A streptococcal (GAS) infections in South East Asia are scarce with no information from Laos. We characterized emm types, emm clusters and the antibiotic resistance profile of 124 GAS isolates recovered in Laos during 2004-2013. Most strains were recovered from skin and invasive infections (76% and 19%, respectively). Thirty-four emm types were identified as belonging to 12 emm clusters and no novel emm types were identified. No significant differences were observed in the distribution of emm types or emm clusters according to age or site of recovery (skin or invasive infections). There was moderate strain diversity in this country but considerable differences in emm-type distribution between Laos, Thailand and Cambodia. Vaccine coverage was high for the J8 vaccine candidate. The theoretical coverage for the 30-valent vaccine candidate needs further investigation. Antibiotic resistance was moderate to erythromycin and chloramphenicol (8% and 7%, respectively) and low to ofloxacin (<1%). ; SCOPUS: ar.j ; info:eu-repo/semantics/published

BACKGROUND: In small community-based trials, mass drug administration of ivermectin has been shown to substantially decrease the prevalence of both scabies and secondary impetigo; however, their effect at large scale is untested. Additionally, combined mass administration of drugs for two or more neglected diseases has potential practical advantages, but efficacy of potential combinations should be confirmed. METHODS: The azithromycin ivermectin mass drug administration (AIM) trial was a prospective, single-arm, before-and-after, community intervention study to assess the efficacy of mass drug administration of ivermectin for scabies and impetigo, with coadministration of azithromycin for trachoma. Mass drug administration was offered to the entire population of Choiseul Province, Solomon Islands, and of this population we randomly selected two sets of ten sentinel villages for monitoring, one at baseline and the other at 12 months. Participants were offered a single dose of 20 mg/kg azithromycin, using weight-based bands. Children weighing less than 12·5 kg received azithromycin oral suspension (20 mg/kg), and infants younger than 6 months received topical 1% tetracycline ointment. For ivermectin, participants were offered two doses of oral ivermectin 200 μg/kg 7–14 days apart using weight-based bands, or 5% permethrin cream 7–14 days apart if ivermectin was contraindicated. Our study had the primary outcomes of safety and feasibility of large-scale mass coadministration of oral ivermectin and azithromycin, which have been previously reported. We report here the prevalence of scabies and impetigo in residents of the ten baseline villages compared with those in the ten 12-month villages, as measured by examination of the skin, which was a secondary outcome of the trial. Further outcomes were comparison of the number of all-cause outpatient attendances at government clinics in Choiseul Province at various timepoints before and after mass drug administration. The trial was registered with the Australian and New ...

BACKGROUND: In small community-based trials, mass drug administration of ivermectin has been shown to substantially decrease the prevalence of both scabies and secondary impetigo; however, their effect at large scale is untested. Additionally, combined mass administration of drugs for two or more neglected diseases has potential practical advantages, but efficacy of potential combinations should be confirmed. METHODS: The azithromycin ivermectin mass drug administration (AIM) trial was a prospective, single-arm, before-and-after, community intervention study to assess the efficacy of mass drug administration of ivermectin for scabies and impetigo, with coadministration of azithromycin for trachoma. Mass drug administration was offered to the entire population of Choiseul Province, Solomon Islands, and of this population we randomly selected two sets of ten sentinel villages for monitoring, one at baseline and the other at 12 months. Participants were offered a single dose of 20 mg/kg azithromycin, using weight-based bands. Children weighing less than 12·5 kg received azithromycin oral suspension (20 mg/kg), and infants younger than 6 months received topical 1% tetracycline ointment. For ivermectin, participants were offered two doses of oral ivermectin 200 μg/kg 7-14 days apart using weight-based bands, or 5% permethrin cream 7-14 days apart if ivermectin was contraindicated. Our study had the primary outcomes of safety and feasibility of large-scale mass coadministration of oral ivermectin and azithromycin, which have been previously reported. We report here the prevalence of scabies and impetigo in residents of the ten baseline villages compared with those in the ten 12-month villages, as measured by examination of the skin, which was a secondary outcome of the trial. Further outcomes were comparison of the number of all-cause outpatient attendances at government clinics in Choiseul Province at various timepoints before and after mass drug administration. The trial was registered with the Australian and New Zealand Trials Registry (ACTRN12615001199505). FINDINGS: During September, 2015, over 4 weeks, 26 188 people (99·3% of the estimated population of Choiseul [n=26 372] as determined at the 2009 census) were treated. At baseline, 1399 (84·2%) of 1662 people living in the first ten villages had their skin examined, of whom 261 (18·7%) had scabies and 347 (24·8%) had impetigo. At 12 months after mass drug administration, 1261 (77·6%) of 1625 people in the second set of ten villages had their skin examined, of whom 29 (2·3%) had scabies (relative reduction 88%, 95% CI 76·5-99·3) and 81 (6·4%) had impetigo (relative reduction 74%, 63·4-84·7). In the 3 months after mass drug administration, 10 614 attended outpatient clinics for any reason compared with 16 602 in the 3 months before administration (decrease of 36·1%, 95% CI 34·7-37·6), and during this period attendance for skin sores, boils, and abscesses decreased by 50·9% (95% CI 48·6-53·1). INTERPRETATION: Ivermectin-based mass drug administration can be scaled to a population of over 25 000 with high efficacy and this level of efficacy can be achieved when mass drug administration for scabies is integrated with mass drug administration of azithromycin for trachoma. These findings will contribute to development of population-level control strategies. Further research is needed to assess durability and scalability of mass drug administration in larger, non-island populations, and to assess its effect on the severe bacterial complications of scabies. FUNDING: International Trachoma Initiative, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Scobie and Claire Mackinnon Trust, and the Wellcome Trust.

Evidence shows the importance of food systems for sustainable development: they are at the nexus that links food security, nutrition, and human health, the viability of ecosystems, climate change, and social justice. However, agricultural policies tend to focus on food supply, and sometimes, on mechanisms to address negative externalities. We propose an alternative. Our starting point is that agriculture and food systems' policies should be aligned to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This calls for deep changes in comparison with the paradigms that prevailed when steering the agricultural change in the XXth century. We identify the comprehensive food systems transformation that is needed. It has four parts: first, food systems should enable all people to benefit from nutritious and healthy food. Second, they should reflect sustainable agricultural production and food value chains. Third, they should mitigate climate change and build resilience. Fourth, they should encourage a renaissance of rural territories. The implementation of the transformation relies on (i) suitable metrics to aid decision-making, (ii) synergy of policies through convergence of local and global priorities, and (iii) enhancement of development approaches that focus on territories. We build on the work of the "Milano Group," an informal group of experts convened by the UN Secretary General in Milan in 2015. Backed by a literature review, what emerges is a strategic narrative linking climate, agriculture and food, and calling for a deep transformation of food systems at scale. This is critical for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement. The narrative highlights the needed consistency between global actions for sustainable development and numerous local-level innovations. It emphasizes the challenge of designing differentiated paths for food systems transformation responding to local and national expectations. Scientific and operational challenges are associated with the alignment and arbitration of local action within the context of global priorities.

In the context of stalling progress against malaria, resistance of mosquitoes to insecticides, and residual transmission, mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin, an endectocide used for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), has emerged as a promising complementary vector control method. Ivermectin reduces the life span of Anopheles mosquitoes that feed on treated humans and/or livestock, potentially decreasing malaria parasite transmission when administered at the community level. Following the publication by WHO of the preferred product characteristics for endectocides as vector control tools, this roadmap provides a comprehensive view of processes needed to make ivermectin available as a vector control tool by 2024 with a completely novel mechanism of action. The roadmap covers various aspects, which include 1) the definition of optimal dosage/regimens for ivermectin MDA in both humans and livestock, 2) the risk of resistance to the drug and environmental impact, 3) ethical issues, 4) political and community engagement, 5) translation of evidence into policy, and 6) operational aspects of large-scale deployment of the drug, all in the context of a drug given as a prevention tool acting at the community level. The roadmap reflects the insights of a multidisciplinary group of global health experts who worked together to elucidate the path to inclusion of ivermectin in the toolbox against malaria, to address residual transmission, counteract insecticide resistance, and contribute to the end of this deadly disease.