Polls and Elections Accuracy and Bias in the 2020 U.S. General Election Polls

In: Presidential studies quarterly: official publication of the Center for the Study of the Presidency, Band 51, Heft 1, S. 214-227

Abstract

AbstractThis report examines accuracy and bias in national and state‐level preelection polls conducted during the 2020 U.S. general election cycle. Overall, national and statewide polls in 2020 were considerably less accurate than in 2016. In fact, there is evidence the final, national presidential preelection polls were less accurate than in any cycle since 1996. Polls across the board underestimated Republican support in the presidential, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial races. The results show the pro‐Democratic biases reflected in the final 2020 preelection polls were systematic.