Reliability and Validity of Some Patterns of International Interaction in an Inter-Nation Simulation

In: Journal of peace research, Band 6, Heft 1, S. 1-11

Abstract

The study evaluates the reliability and validity of the Inter-Nation Simulation (INS) as an operating model of international interaction. Reliability is evaluated by comparing correlation coefficients describing patterns of interaction in one series of runs of the INS with coefficients generated during a second series of runs. Of 21 reliability comparisons, 2 were found to differ by a magnitude of .20 or more. Validity is evaluated by comparing coefficients describing patterns of interaction in the combined runs of the INS with coefficients observed in data from the international system chosen as a referent. Of 21 validity comparisons, 10 were found to differ by a magnitude of .20 or more. These 10 comparisons, all involving relationships represented by high correlations in the referent system but low correlations in the INS, are interpreted as mispredictions of the INS—i. e., as relationships which exist in the referent system, but which the INS fails to gener ate. Further analysis aimed at isolating the particular relationships and variables involved in these mispredictions is reported as a basis for revising the INS model.