Somalia: state collapse and the threat of terrorism

In: Adelphi paper, 364

Abstract

Close analysis of how non-state actors adapt to state collapse is critical for effective peacebuilding, development, and counter-terrorism strategies in those crises. In Somalia, the nature of state collapse has changed significantly since 1995. Armed conflict is more localised; lawlessness is better contained by local authorities; and warlords have been weakened by an emerging commercial elite whose interests lie in stability, not plunder. Risk-aversion drives political behavior and partially explains the reluctance of local elites to support a revived central government. Somalia, to date, has not been particularly attractive as a safe haven for terrorists due to the risk of betrayal and extortion foreigners face there. Instead, terrorist networks have used Somalia principally as a short-term transshipment site into Kenya. Efforts to revive a central state in Somalia risk creating a "paper state"--One which lacks a capacity to govern and is prone to police corruption, providing an environment in which terrorist networks thrive