International Futures: Building and Using Global Models

Abstract

Front Cover -- International Futures: Building and Using Global Models -- Copyright -- Contents -- Prologue -- Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations -- Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases -- Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1. What Path Are We On? -- 1.2. What Leverage Do We Have? -- 1.3. How Do We Address Uncertainty? -- 1.4. The Plan of the Volume -- References -- Chapter 2: Building a Global Model: The Toolkit -- 2.1. Identifying Concepts Individually and in Systems -- 2.1.1. Identifying Concepts -- 2.1.2. Recognizing Systems -- 2.2. Assembling Data -- 2.3. Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions -- 2.4. Building Dynamic Formulations: Equations and Much More -- 2.4.1. Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type -- 2.4.2. Making Choices at the Systems Level -- 2.4.2.1. Identifying Important Feedback Loops -- 2.4.2.2. Building Algorithms -- 2.4.3. Making Choices at the Equation Level -- 2.4.3.1. Seeing That Formulations Do Not All Merit the Same Attention -- 2.4.3.2. Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket -- 2.4.3.3. Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers -- 2.4.3.4. Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points -- 2.5. Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty -- 2.5.1. Building Alternative Scenarios -- 2.5.2. Exploring Transformative Uncertainty -- 2.6. Assessing and Addressing Model Strengths and Weaknesses -- 2.6.1. Verification, Validation, and Accreditation -- 2.6.2. Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission -- References -- Chapter 3: The Evolution of Global Modeling -- 3.1. Early Global Modeling With Multiple-Issue, Long-Term Systems -- 3.1.1. Foundational Work -- 3.1.2. The First Wave -- 3.1.3. New Capabilities -- 3.2. Integrated Assessment Models -- 3.2.1. Comparative Use of IAMs.

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International futures: building and using global models

Hughes, Barry

Hughes, Barry

Abstract

International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.

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