The turnout myth: voting rates and partisan outcomes in American national elections

'The Turnout Myth' refutes the long and widely held convention that high voter participation advantages Democratic candidates while low involvement helps Republicans in national elections. This text examines over 50 years of presidential, gubernatorial, Senatorial, and House election data to show there is no consistent partisan effect associated with turnout. With a data-driven argument, Daron Shaw and John Petrocik demonstrate that the overall relationship between the partisan vote and turnout for these offices is uncorrelated.

The Turnout Myth refutes the long and widely held convention that high voter participation advantages Democratic candidates while low involvement helps Republicans in national elections. This book examines over 50 years of presidential, gubernatorial, Senatorial, and House election data to show there is no consistent partisan effect associated with turnout. With a data-driven argument, Daron Shaw and John Petrocik demonstrate that the overall relationship between the partisan vote and turnout for these offices is uncorrelated.

If only our people had turned out! -- American voter turnout : a history and portrait -- A theoretical exploration of turnout and voting -- Turnout and partisan vote choice : over time and across states and districts -- Turnout and partisan vote choice : over time and within states and districts -- Congressional district results : a further look -- Why is the conventional wisdom wrong? -- If turnout isn't driving election swings, what is? -- Some final data and thoughts on the link between turnout and vote choice.