Aufsatz(elektronisch)2013

On the Importance of Frailty in Social Science Theory (and other lessons of agent-based modeling)

In: European Quarterly of Political Attitudes and Mentalities: EQPAM, Band 2, Heft 1, S. 1-26

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Abstract

This paper is about the theoretical implications of agent-based modeling exercises. Construction of
an agent-based model challenges a social scientist to formalize many concepts and relationships
that would have remained implicit or unrecognized. While formalizing these "unimportant"
assumptions can be a nuisance, it can also have substantial theoretical payoffs. In order to fill the
gaps of the model, the researcher is forced to confront the gaps in the theory that motivated the
model in the first place. Using examples drawn from several large political science simulation
models, the paper argues that frailty, defined as unpredictability in the behavior of agents, is often
required in order to bring closure to the modeling exercise. It is difficult (or impossible) to square
the dynamic or aggregate implications of the agent-based model with observations without placing
a substantial amount of emphasis on frailty. Hence, the component in behavior that we often treat
as "error" in empirical analysis is actually a vital part of the glue that makes the many different
moving parts of a social system interact in coherent ways. The example models were developed
with the Swarm simulation system (http://www.swarm.org) during the last decade.

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