CRISIS PREDICTION

In: The annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Band 393, S. 32-39

Abstract

The importance of the soc sci's has been much exaggerated. The soc sci'ts are particularly bad at prediction, & so at helping us to forestall the SP crises that occur more & more often. The rate of soc change has gone up very sharply for a number of reasons, so surprises are more frequent. This rate should ae reduced, at least in rich countries, which face far more unknown situations. Poor countries, on the other hand, mainly face situations known from those slightly more advanced. What poor countries mostly need, therefore, is better information, of old kind, not new kinds of information. Crisis-anticipating information will mostly be valueless, since no one knows how to winnow it. It also requires many low-level informers, & the identity of these people is a major problem of pol'al power. So is the identity of the processor & publisher of their data. Substantial improvements in information & its use might abolish democracy. HA.