Repression Hurts: Coercive Government Responses and the Demise of Terrorist Campaigns

In: British journal of political science, Band 43, Heft 3, S. 559-577

Abstract

The question of how coercive government policies affect the duration and outcome of terrorist campaigns has only recently started to attract scholarly interest. This article argues that the effect of repression on terrorist group dynamics is conditional on the country's regime type. Repression is expected to produce a backlash effect in democracies, subsequently lengthening the duration of terrorist organizations and lowering the probability of outcomes favourable to the government. In authoritarian regimes, however, coercive strategies are expected to deter groups' engagement in terrorism, thus reducing the lifespan of terrorist groups and increasing the likelihood of government success. These hypotheses are examined using data on terrorist groups for the 1976-2006 period; support is found for these conjectures on terrorist group duration and outcomes. Adapted from the source document.