Suchergebnisse

Politics takes place in time and space–both the immutable physical space and the institutional space that politics can alter, but with much inertia. To express the effects of such limiting frames, I have developed a number of logical quantitative models. By "logical quantitative" I mean models that can be constructed without data input, on logical grounds, and then can be quantitatively tested. Here I try to make my approaches and results more understandable so as to enable others to apply this particular set of methods to further problems in political science and related fields. My topics can be divided into the following four categories: a) The size of countries, assemblies and electoral districts matters for their functioning. Exactly how does country size affect the size of its legislative assembly, its foreign trade/GNP ratio, and the sizes of cities? b) Sizes of populations, countries and defense budgets change over time–growing, declining, interacting. How do more universal patterns of growth and duration enter those empires and cabinet coalitions? How do social phenomena such as population explosion and hyperinflation proceed? c) The number and size distribution of political parties is affected by institutional frameworks. According to which logical models? d) Finally, conversion from people to representatives takes place in several forms. Popular votes translate into assembly seats for different parties. Populations of countries affect their seat shares in supranational assemblies. The conversion is usually less than proportional, under-representing the smaller parties, yet over-representating the smaller nations. What are the hidden rules of conversion?

The Archive of Congress preserves the parliamentary documentation of the XIX and XX centuries. The electoral papers, which reflect the results of the political contest, enable the constitution of the House. The information they contain is assembled in a data base, The Historical Files of Congressmen, covering the period from 1810 to 1977. ; El Archivo del Congreso de los Diputados conserva la documentación parlamentaria de los siglos XIX y XX. Los documentos electorales, reflejo del resultado de la contienda política, permiten la composición de la Cámara. La información contenida en ellos se recoge en una base de datos, el Fichero Histórico de Diputados, que abarca desde 1808 hasta 1977.

Analyzes the Nov. 26, 2000 parliamentary and presidential elections in Romania, resulting in Ion Iliescu's overwhelming victory and a new parliamentary constellation.

Estimates effects on campaign spending and contributions on incumbent and challenger votes; regression analysis.

Analyzes political campaigns, issues, and outcome of the Sept. 15, 1997 elections for the Storting, resulting in a coalition government. Patterns of cooperation, coalition-building, negotiations, and sources and effects of parliamentary fragmentation.

Analyzes the parliamentary electoral reform & the results of the 1994 parliamentary election in Italy, drawing on empirical secondary data. The Apr 1994 electoral reform referendum was extremely influential in shaping the parliamentary reforms that ultimately created a new set of incentives for parties & candidates by eliminating the necessity for small parties to nominate their own candidates in the uninomial districts. It is suggested that these reforms were designed to increase the governability of Italy, increase the transparency of the electoral process, renew the membership of parliament, & increase the representation of women. While the reforms increased the participation of women in politics & produced a radical renewal of parliamentary personnel, it is argued that they did not increase governability or transparency in the electoral process. It is concluded, however, that the permanent impact of the reforms will be known only after a period of learning, transition, & consolidation. 7 Tables, 8 References. D. M. Smith

THE OBJECTIVES OF THIS ARTICLE ARE TWOFOLD: (1) BY MEANS OF A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATION IN RESULTS BETWEEN ELECTORAL DISTRICTS, TO ASSESS THE EXTENT TO WHICH ECONOMIC FACTORS -- PARTICULARLY PRIVATIZATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND THE LEVEL OF UNEMPLOYMENT -- INFLUENCED POLAND'S 1993 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS; (2) TO MAKE SOME EXTRAPOLATIVE PREDICTIONS REGARDING WHETHER MORE FAVORABLE TRENDS IN UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OR MORE RAPID PRIVATIZATION WOULD HAVE INCREASED THE RELATIVE VOTE FOR THE MAJOR PRO-REFORM PARTIES COMPARED WITH THE POST-COMMUNIST PARTIES AND THE TWO OTHER ANTI-REFORM PARTIES.