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Cover -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data and Descriptive Analysis -- 2.1 Sample -- 2.2 Variable Construction and Sources -- 2.3 Variable Transformation -- 2.4 Event Analysis -- 3 Empirical Model and Implementation -- 4 Results and Discussion -- 4.1 Main results -- 4.2 Goodness of Fit -- 4.3 Robustness of the Baseline -- 4.4 The Role of Leverage -- 4.5 Capital Inflows Bonanza -- 4.6 Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity -- 5 Concluding Remarks -- A: Data Sources and Sample Makeup -- B: Additional Figures -- C: Additional Regression Results.

AbstractThis paper investigates Hungary's inflationary exposures to global price movements using a simple cost-push input-output price model and a database of inflation-to-output price elasticities (Global Inflation-to-Output Price Elasticity Database, GIOPED) developed on the basis of the OECD's Inter-Country Input-Output Tables. Inflation elasticities are decomposed into local, simple, and complex global value chain effects by applying Wang's decomposition scheme (Wang et al. 2017) to price movements and inflation. Our empirical analysis based on GIOPED elasticities shows that Hungary is highly exposed to global value chain price transmissions originating in Germany, Austria, and Russia; and in particular to changes in energy prices. The crude oil and natural gas price boom and the resulting energy crises caused a significant increase in consumer price levels in Hungary; however, this explains only a fraction of current inflation rates.

This paper examines the relationship between sale rates and price shocks in art auctions. Using data on contemporary and impressionist art, we show that while sale rates appear to have little relationship to current prices, there exists a strong negative relationship of sale rates to unexpected price shocks, which is reminiscent of a Phillips curve. We estimate an empirical model that suggests that the reserve price is set on average at about 70% of the low estimate.