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In late summer of 2008, there were clear objective signs of a weakening economy. Industrial production was negative (−1.5 in August), inflation was creeping up (+5.4 in August), the unemployment rate was rising (6.1% in September). Housing starts were at a near-record low, with mortgages getting hard to come by, and hard to pay for. Consumer sentiment, as measured in public opinion surveys, was dropping to levels not seen since the 1980s. But there was no talk of an "economic crisis," and reported conditions still did not qualify officially as a "recession." The disintegration of Wall Street financial giants, which began in September, quickly accelerated the scale of the perceived, and actual, decline. "At that point," as Campbell (2009, 13–14) puts it, "the economy was in crisis, perhaps teetering on the brink [of] a deep recession or even a depression," with the stock market experiencing about a 25% drop in value over one month. By October 3, a $700 billion Economic Stabilization Act had passed through Congress, and was signed by President Bush. Despite this unprecedented emergency measure, the stock market continued to tumble. During the 2008 presidential campaign, at least one voter saw the electoral relevance of these economic struggles. Francine Caruso wanted a president who would "fix the economy." Francine, an administrative assistant who lost her job, couldn't sell her home, and watched her husband postpone retirement, declared that Obama and McCain "need to stop knocking each other and tell us what they can do for us" (Amon 2008). Our overarching question, in this collection of articles, is how other voters linked the economy to their 2008 candidate choice.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 441-479) and index. ; Setting -- Theoretical orientation -- Perceptions of the parties and candidates -- Partisan choice -- Voting turnout -- The impact of party identification -- The development of party identification -- Public policy and political preference -- Attitude structure and the problem of ideology -- The formation of issue concepts and partisan change -- Membership in social groupings -- Class and other social characteristics -- Economic antecedents of political behavior -- The electoral decision -- Electoral behavior and the political system. ; Mode of access: Internet.

To forecast an election means to declare the outcome before it happens. Scientific approaches to election forecasting include polls, political stock markets and statistical models. I review these approaches, with an emphasis on the last, since it offers more lead time. Consideration is given to the history and politics of statistical forecasting models of elections. Rules for evaluating such models are offered. Examples of actual models come from the United States, France and the United Kingdom, where this work is rather new. Compared to other approaches, statistical modelling seems a promising method for forecasting elections.

To forecast an election means to declare the outcome before it happens. Scientific approaches to election forecasting include polls, political stock markets & statistical models. I review these approaches, with an emphasis on the last, since it offers more lead time. Consideration is given to the history & politics of statistical forecasting models of elections. Rules for evaluating such models are offered. Examples of actual models come from the United States, France & the United Kingdom, where this work is rather new. Compared to other approaches, statistical modeling seems a promising method for forecasting elections. 1 Table, 51 References. Adapted from the source document.

Discusses the 2000 presidential campaign during which academic modelers predicted victory for Democratic candidate Al Gore, when public opinion polls showed Republican candidate George W. Bush in the lead.