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New-new trade theory makes predictions regarding the types of firms most likely to benefit from increases in economic openness. This paper exploits the launch of the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 to test predictions regarding the types of firms that are optimistic about, and prepared for, increased regional integration. We introduce data from an original survey conducted just prior to the launch of the AEC of over 300 mostly multinational firms operating in the Philippines. We find that firms' prior exposure to other economies in the region is a strong and positive predictor of both optimism and preparation. A firms' capabilities (i.e., size, profitability, and growth), on the other hand, predict preparation strongly and optimism only weakly. Of particular relevance to policy makers, we also find that firms' primary policy demand on the Philippines government is for more information and communication, and that even highly capable firms make this demand. Our findings suggest that, despite outreach efforts by the Philippines government, a lack of information continues to impede firms' abilities to seize the new opportunities associated with regional integration. (Pac Aff/GIGA)

AbstractGrievances that derive from the unequal treatment of ethnic groups are a key motivation for civil war. Ethnic power sharing should therefore reduce the risk of internal conflict. Yet conflict researchers disagree on whether formal power‐sharing institutions effectively prevent large‐scale violence. We can improve our understanding of the effect of power‐sharing institutions by analyzing the mechanisms under which they operate. To this effect, we compare the direct effect of formal power‐sharing institutions on peace with their indirect effect through power‐sharing behavior. Combining data on inclusive and territorially dispersive institutions with information on power‐sharing behavior, we empirically assess this relationship on a global scale. Our causal mediation analysis reveals that formal power‐sharing institutions affect the probability of ethnic conflict onset mostly through power‐sharing behavior that these institutions induce.