strategic cooperation, the invasion of Iraq and the behaviour of the "Axis of Evil", 1990-2004
In: Journal of peace research, Band 45, S. 385-399
ISSN: 0022-3433
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In: Journal of peace research, Band 45, S. 385-399
ISSN: 0022-3433
World Affairs Online
In: Journal of peace research, Band 45, Heft 3, S. 385-399
ISSN: 1460-3578
The study, using an autoregressive model and a time series of events data, tests whether Iran, Syria and North Korea have altered their behaviour towards the USA in response to the US occupation of Iraq. In particular, the study posits a modified theory of `strategic conflict avoidance', suggesting that perceived failings in US policy towards Iraq that manifest in low popularity ratings have, in fact, constrained the US president from initiating future aggressive actions. Potential targets of US aggression, rather than becoming more cooperative towards an unpopular US president, as suggested by strategic conflict avoidance theory, now become more hostile as they take advantage of public unease with an adventurous foreign policy. The analysis provides mixed support for the hypothesis, finding that North Korea has altered its strategic conflict avoidance behaviour in response to the Iraq occupation. Syria has become more hostile towards the USA, whereas, surprisingly, Iran is relatively uninfluenced by US domestic politics. The article suggests that coercive strategies might provide an opening in current US negotiations with North Korea, but also worryingly concludes, on the basis of the evidence, that the chances of a negotiated settlement with Iran are small.
In: The British journal of politics & international relations, Band 9, Heft 3, S. 477-493
ISSN: 1369-1481
World Affairs Online
In: International relations of the Asia-Pacific, Band 7, Heft 2, S. 129-153
World Affairs Online
In: International relations of the Asia-Pacific: a journal of the Japan Association of International Relations, Band 7, Heft 2, S. 129-153
ISSN: 1470-4838
In: The British journal of politics & international relations: BJPIR, Band 9, Heft 3, S. 477-493
ISSN: 1467-856X
The Korean peninsula is one of the most dangerous places on the planet. Decisions relating to the peninsula are for high stakes, and one small error can potentially result in an enormously destructive war. This article seeks to assess whether strategies of engagement or coercion can improve the chances of North Korea co-operating with either the US or South Korea. Using Vector Autoregression (VAR) techniques I assess the behavioural patterns of the North Korean regime in response to the actions of the states involved in the six-party talks between 1990 and 2000. The article finds that there were dramatic differences between the negotiating strategies employed by both Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in their dealings with both the US and South Korea. The results suggest that, in being able to manipulate US foreign policy, the North Koreans are punching well above their weight and that the chances of a meaningful settlement with the regime of Kim Jong Il are very small.
In: Family & community history: journal of the Family and Community Historical Research Society, Band 6, Heft 2, S. 121-127
ISSN: 1751-3812
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 46, Heft 5, S. 672-692
ISSN: 0022-0027, 0731-4086
World Affairs Online
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 46, Heft 5, S. 672-692
ISSN: 1552-8766
The effects of domestic strife on the likelihood of an international conflict are tested empirically. A rare-events logit model with corrections for temporal dependence to assess whether domestic strife is related to the initiation of international conflicts is used to test the validity of the diversionary conflict thesis. Results suggest that decision makers do initiate international conflicts when the state is undergoing domestic strife, although not in a predicted manner. The results indicate that violent domestic strife increases the likelihood of a diversionary conflict, whereas nonviolent strife increases the likelihood of repression. The research also presents evidence that calls into question some of the claims made in previous studies and demonstrates that domestic strife in a target state increases the likelihood of being attacked.
In: The Howard journal of criminal justice, Band 35, Heft 3, S. 232-241
ISSN: 1468-2311
Abstract: In England and Wales, criminal convictions continue to be secured on the basis of identification evidence alone. The Devlin Report (1976) concluded that the process of identification was inherently fallible and recommended that such prosecutions should cease save in exceptional circumstances. Devlin also called for more psychological research on the identification process. Examples of such research are reviewed, together with cases of actual or alleged mistaken identification which exemplify the principles uncovered by this work. It is concluded that until Devlin's central recommendation is carried into law, miscarriages of justice based on mistaken identity are likely to continue to bedevil the English legal system.
In: A journal of church and state: JCS, Band 36, Heft 4, S. 795-820
ISSN: 2040-4867
In: Journal of church and state: JCS, Band 36, Heft 4, S. 795-820
ISSN: 0021-969X
In: The Rand journal of economics, Band 22, Heft 4, S. 519
ISSN: 1756-2171
In: Sociology: the journal of the British Sociological Association, Band 18, Heft 1, S. 146-147
ISSN: 1469-8684
In: Local government studies, Band 9, Heft 4, S. 17-19
ISSN: 1743-9388