Analiz izmenenij klimata i ich posledstvij
In: Trudy Gosudarstvennogo Učreždenija "Vserossijskij Naučno-Issledovatelʹskij Institut Gidrometeorologičeskoj Informacii - Mirovoj Centr Dannych" 173
26 Ergebnisse
Sortierung:
In: Trudy Gosudarstvennogo Učreždenija "Vserossijskij Naučno-Issledovatelʹskij Institut Gidrometeorologičeskoj Informacii - Mirovoj Centr Dannych" 173
In: Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seria 16. Biologia, Band 77, Heft 4, S. 258-265
The phenological responses of plants to changing weather conditions are very strong and can serve as an indicator of global climate change. If we understand how individual species respond to changing conditions, we can represent how ecosystems will change. The aim of this study was to analyze the exposure of climatic factors (air temperature and precipitation) on the fl owering duration of the wild vascular plants species in the Karadag Nature Reserve (Crimea). In general, 152 species were taken into account with a number of phenological observations from 5 to 8 years. Correlation analysis between the fl owering duration and the climatic parameters revealed a signifi cant response in 89 (58.6%) species. Moreover, the climatic factors of the current vegetative season impacted 71 species fl owering, previous vegetative season impacted 4 species fl owering, and both vegetative seasons impacted 14 species fl owering. Air temperature and precipitation equally impacted the fl owering duration: air temperature impacted 35 (41.2%) species fl owering; precipitation impacted 32 (37.7%) species fl owering; both factors impacted 18 (21.1%) species flowering. The flowering duration mostly was negatively correlated with air temperature values and positively with precipitation amount. Mesophytes and the forest community species were the most sensitive to the climatic factors; euxerophytes and the steppe community species were the least sensitive to the climatic factors.
In: Lučšee uvlekatelʹnoe čtenie
In: Russkij vopros
In: Русский вопрос
In: Moscow University Bulletin Series 4 Geology, Heft №1 (2024), S. 55-65
In the paper, the relationship between climatic changes and sedimentation conditions for 4 accumulation stages of the Fuxin and Shahai coal-bearing formations of the Fuxin coal basin in the Aptian-Albian time was established using mathematical statistical methods. As a result, it was observed that the increase in climate humidity coincided with the widespread anoxic oceanic Paquie event (Paquie, OAE1b) during the early Albian time. In addition, a significant influence of facies conditions on the intensity of peat and coal accumulation processes of the Fuxin and Shakhai coal-bearing formations was revealed.
During the cold war, a secret Camp Century military base was created inside the ice sheet in the north-west of Greenland. At this station, the first deep ice core was recovered. It was a beginning of a new era in paleoclimatology – a continuous record of climatic changes over the past 100 thousand years was obtained. At the end of 2018, sediments from the bottom of the Camp Century ice core were discovered at the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen. Their analysis showed that the age of the glacial stratum in this part of Greenland is about 400 thousand years. The history of the Camp Century establishment and glacier ice-core drilling is shown. ; Рассказано о строительстве внутриледниковой станции Camp Century в северо-западной Гренландии во время холодной войны, первом в мире глубоком керновом бурении ледника и о современных исследованиях, связанных с этими работами.
BASE
In: Ser-5_2023_4; Moscow University Bulletin Series 4 Geology, Heft 5, 2023, S. 105-116
Changes in the bearing capacity of frozen soils under various scenarios of warming in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) by 2050 are considered. Deformations and destruction of buildings and engineering structures in the Russian Arctic will develop gradually. Taking into account the climatic scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), in aggregate, 1/3 of the AZRF territory will experience a decrease in bearing capacity by more than 15% by the middle of the century; the Arctic coast of the European North of Russia, Yamal and the Gydan Peninsula are in the danger zone.
In: Ser-5_2023_4; Lomonosov Geography Journal, Band 78, Heft № 4 (2023), S. 51-65
Detailed multiproxy (lithology, micropaleontology, palynology) study of a 455 cm thick marine sediment sequence overlying the Moscovian till exposed in Bychye-2 section on the Pyoza River allowed for reconstructing past environmental changes during the Boreal transgression. Stratigraphic subdivision is based on the succession of local palynological zones that were correlated with previously established regional zones. The latter are constrained on the basis of correlation with the West European palynological zones. Marine sediments of Bychye-2 section accumulated from the end of the Moscovian glacial (>131 ka BP) until ca. 119,5 ka BP. Five ecological zones were established in the section in accordance with the upward trends in the changes in lithology and variability in the taxonomic composition of fossil assemblages of benthic foraminifers and ostracods and associations of marine dinocysts and freshwater green microalgae. Taken together, they are indicative of the progressive shallowing of the basin under the improving climatic conditions, which primarily influenced the degree of sea-ice cover extent. Three successive phases in the evolution of the Boreal transgression have been identified: 1) a seasonally sea-ice covered relatively deep freshened basin of the initial phases of flooding (455-360 cm, >131-130,5 ka BP); 2) a deep basin of the maximum phase of flooding with less extensive sea-ice cover (360-290 cm, 130,5-130,25 ka BP); 3) a shallow basin with reduced seasonal sea-ice cover (290-0 cm, 130,25-119,5 ka BP). The flooding of the territory with cold Arctic waters was rapid, as evidenced by the composition of microfossil assemblages represented by river-proximal Arctic species in combination with the species that prefer water depths of at least 40-50 m. The regression in the region started about 130 ka BP, which indicates that the glacioisostatic rebound of the territory was ahead of the global eustatic sea level rise. The most warm-water and taxonomically diverse assemblages of foraminifers and ostracods, containing species typical of the Baltic Sea, were recorded during the regressive stage, especially in the time interval of ~128-124 ka BP. This probably gives evidence for a rather long-lasting connection of the White and Baltic seas.
Heart rhythm disorders are presented one of the toughest little studied and, in this regard, current problems in cardiology among different populations living in different climatic and geographical conditions. Changes in normal pesmeker heart activity as identified in diseases of internal organs, and apparently healthy people, civilians and soldiers from various law enforcement agencies. Arrhythmia is a serious problem for both civilian and military health care, in view of the fact that there is a direct correlation with a high risk of cardiovascular complications and sudden (primarily aritmogenic Genesis) death. In addition, arrhythmia entail substantial economic burden in their diagnosis and treatment. Special attention should be paid to heart rhythm disorders in athletes and military personnel at the time of physical training standards. Primarily these are «harmless» violations as episodes or permanent migration of rhythm in the Atria, bradycardia, sinus arrhythmia. On the analysis of the studied Russian and world literature, a definite view on the incidence of various arrhythmias and conduction, residing in various climate and geographical areas, and the data obtained is directly dependent on applied research methodologies. ; Нарушения сердечного ритма представляются одной из сложных, малоизученных и, следовательно, актуальных проблем в кардиологии среди популяций людей, проживающих в различных климатогеографических условиях. Изменения нормальной пейсмекерной активности сердца выявляются как при заболеваниях внутренних органов, так и у практически здоровых людей, гражданского населения и военнослужащих различных силовых ведомств. Аритмии — это серьезная проблема как гражданского, так и военного здравоохранения, ввиду того, что имеется прямая корреляционная связь с высоким риском сердечно-сосудистых осложнений и внезапной (в первую очередь аритмогенного генеза) смерти. Кроме того, аритмии влекут за собой существенную экономическую нагрузку при их диагностике и лечении. Особого внимания заслуживают нарушения сердечного ритма у спортсменов и у военнослужащих при сдаче нормативов физической подготовки. В первую очередь это такие «безобидные» нарушения, как эпизоды или постоянная миграция ритма по предсердиям, брадикардия, синусовая аритмия. В изученных российских и мировых источниках нет однозначного представления о распространенности различных нарушений ритма сердца и проводимости у людей, проживающих в различных климатогеографических районах, а полученные данные напрямую зависят от применяемых в исследованиях методик.
BASE
In: Lomonosov Geography Journal, Band 78, Heft № 1 (2023), S. 95-105
The long-term interannual and seasonal variability of the chemical runoff along the main branches of the Kuban River delta was investigated. We analyzed the data of systematic observations on water runoff and the concentrations of the main ions, biogenic and organic substances, phenols, oil products and heavy metals for the period from 2008 to 2018. The annual and seasonal runoff of dissolved chemicals in the main branches of the Kuban River delta, i. e. the Protoka branch and the Kuban branch, was calculated. The chemical composition of water in the main branches of the Kuban River delta is practically the same, and the greatest differences are characteristic of the con-centrations of chlorides, iron compounds, copper and oil products. Multidirectional trends of changes in the ionic composition and content of biogenic elements were revealed. There was a synchronous increase in the concentration of sulphates and ammonium nitrogen in both deltaic branches of the Kuban River; the content of nitrates and nitrites in the Kuban branch practically did not change, while it was decreasing in the Protoka branch. At the same time, the maximum frequency of exceeding the MPC for all components is rather low, and a low level of water pollution is typical. The chemical runoff along the delta branches is rather similar, especially in terms of the runoff of sulphates, organic substances and biogenic elements. The greatest differences by 20-22% are observed in the runoff of chlorides, iron and copper compounds. It is shown that the runoff of chlorides and sulphates, as well as biogenic and organic substances, is interconnected with water runoff. In general, the distribution of chemical runoff along the delta branches is uniform, its seasonal variability corresponds to changes in water amount during the principal seasons, while some differences are observed only for chlorides and iron compounds. Under actual climatic changes and anthropogenic impact, the revealed features and trends of variability of chemical runoff along the main branches of the Kuban River delta are of great practical importance. The data obtained can be used for predictive estimates of the removal of chemicals into the coastal zone of the Sea of Azov.
The research aims to explore climate indicators of Canary Islands as autonomous area of Spain. Climate conditions have a special significance in the EU countries and particularly on the territory of Canary Islands. Canary Islands are separate climatic zone described by six climate types.
BASE
In: Lomonosov Geography Journal, Band 78, Heft № 2 (2023), S. 89-102
In 1958 V.F. Perov, staff member of the Khibiny Research and Training Station of the MSU Faculty of Geography, described four snow-ice formations in the Khibiny Mountains and classified them as very small glaciers. Until our research began in 2005, these glaciers were not studied in detail. We used field observations, drilling, GIS and remote sensing methods to study the structure of the glaciers and evaluate changes in their geometry during 60 years. The snow-ice formations were drilled through for the first time and the ice cores underwent geochemical and isotope-oxygen analyses. The thickness of ice kernels varies from 0,2 to 1,6 m. Our investigations showed that despite a slight degradation, the glaciers` area remains relatively stable since 1958. This fact may be caused by the increase in solid precipitation in recent years. According to the analysis of climatic changes, in the early 2000s a decrease in snowfall was observed in the Khibiny Mountains. The maximum snow thickness at the meteorological site of the Khibiny station in 2002-2003 winter period was 55 cm. This could be a factor of more than 2 times decrease of glacier areas during 2000-2010. After 2007 there has been an increase in snow precipitation, and the maximum snow depth of 180 cm was observed in 2020, the absolute maximum for the whole period of observations (1984-2020). According to published data the increase in mean annual temperature at the plains of the Kola Peninsula is 2,3 ± 1°C during the last 50 years. However, mean monthly temperatures of the summer do not rise. We consider that, along with recently increasing snow precipitation, this is exactly what determine rather stable state of snow-ice formations in the Khibiny Mountains, which appeared to be more resistant to climate warming than mountain glaciers.
In: Lomonosov Geography Journal, Band 78, Heft № 6 (2023), S. 107-118
The results of palynological analysis allowed climatostratigraphic subdivision of Pleistocene deposits of the Trlica cave, located in the vicinity of Pljevlja town in northern Montenegro. The palynological record confirms significant hiatuses in the sedimentation revealed by the field lithologic-genetic analysis. The changes of landscape and climatic conditions that occurred during the formation of the studied Pleistocene strata are reconstructed. Specific features of flora and vegetation of three stages of the final part of the Early Pleistocene corresponding to MIS 22, MIS 21, MIS 20, as well as three stages of the first half of the Middle Pleistocene correlated to MIS 19, MIS 18 and MIS 15, have been identified. Throughout the entire period of the Pleistocene deposits in Trlica, the mountain landscapes in the vicinity of the cave were covered mainly by forests, that underwent significant transformations of their composition during the change of interglacial conditions by the stages of cooling. The materials of palynological analysis of the Quaternary sediments of Montenegro are very scarce. Therefore, the sporepollen data of the Trlica section and the revealed climatic-phytocenotic successions of three interglacial and three relatively cold (near-glacial) stages of the Early and Middle Pleistocene presented in the article are an important contribution to the study of the Pleistocene paleoenvironments of the Balkan Peninsula.
The outstanding mathematician, philosopher and thinker N. N. Moiseev foresaw the great challenges of the world declared by UN Secretary-General António Guterres in January 2020. He proposed paths to the future and algorithms for the development of mankind relying on science, on the original philosophical concept of universal evolutionism. The paper analyses his ideas in a modern context.The results provided by several laboratories of the Computing Center of the USSR Academy of Sciences supervised by N. N. Moiseev had great public, scientific, and political resonance. These results demonstrated the strategic risks of large-scale nuclear conflicts. Together with the works of Karl Sagan, N. N. Moiseev's ideas are still in the center of attention of the scientific and expert community. A number of researchers are trying to question them, believing that a nuclear conflict can be kept "within a limited framework." However, the works of N. N. Moiseev and his team became even more relevant in the context of the US desire to withdraw from the strategic nuclear arms limitation treaties.Apparently, N. N. Moiseev was one of the first scientists to set the task of constructing and analyzing models of the global climate system. This study was ahead of its time. Its continuation under the leadership of former US Vice President Al Gore was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Weather anomalies of recent years show that rapid climatic changes as suggested by N. N. Moiseev can become one of the most serious dangers for humanity.The work of N. N. Moiseev's team on modeling economic systems and artificial intelligence opened the prospect of an effective use of science in order to manage the development of society. After a series of trial and error made in recent decades both in Russia and in the world, this prospect again becomes relevant.The text of the author's speech at the All-Russian (National) Scientific Conference "Moiseev's Readings. The Culture and Humanitarian Issues of Modern Civilisation", which was held at Moscow University for the Humanities on 4–5 March, 2020. ; Выдающийся математик, философ, мыслитель Н. Н. Моисеев предвидел большие перемены мира, о которых в январе 2020 г. заявил генеральный секретарь ООН А. Гутерриш. Опираясь на науку, на разработанную им оригинальную философскую концепцию — универсальный эволюционизм — Моисеев предлагал пути в будущее, алгоритмы развития человечества. Статья посвящена анализу его идей в современном контексте.Результаты нескольких лабораторий Вычислительного центра АН СССР, которые курировал Н. Н. Моисеев в 1980-е гг., получили большой общественный, научный, политический резонанс. Они показывали стратегические риски масштабных ядерных конфликтов. Вместе с работами К. Сагана идеи Н. Н. Моисеева до сих пор находятся в центре внимания научного и экспертного сообщества. Ряд исследователей стремятся поставить их под сомнение, полагая, что ядерный конфликт можно будет удержать «в ограниченных рамках». Однако работы Н. Н. Моисеева и его коллектива стали еще более актуальными в контексте стремления США выйти из договоров об ограничении стратегических ядерных вооружений.По-видимому, Н. Н. Моисеев был одним из первых ученых, поставивших задачу построения и анализа моделей глобальной климатической системы. Это исследование опередило свое время. Продолжение этих работ под началом бывшего вице-президента США А. Гора было удостоено Нобелевской премии мира. Погодные аномалии последних лет показывают, что быстрые климатические изменения, как и предполагал Н. Н. Моисеев, могут стать одной из самых серьезных опасностей для человечества.Работы коллектива Н. Н. Моисеева по моделированию экономических систем и искусственному интеллекту открывали перспективу эффективного использования науки в целях управления развитием общества. После чреды проб и ошибок, сделанных в последние десятилетия в России и в мире, эта перспектива вновь становится актуальной.Текст доклада автора на Общероссийской (национальной) научной конференции «Моисеевские чтения. Культура и гуманитарные проблемы современной цивилизации», которая состоялась 4–5 марта 2020 г. в Московском гуманитарном университете.
BASE
The features of formation of grain crops seed market The article considers the peculiarities of the seed market. The special attention is focused on the fact that seeds, as a commodity, have a market value and a consumer demand, and the seed market is a link between sellers and buyers. The seed market is also considered as a market of varieties. It is noted that a varietal politics has greatly changed at present and the amount of varieties has increased. Seed market is formed due to geographical division of the market on different geographical segments. Segmentation due to geographical criteria means regional location of the farms and climatic conditions. Seed market is differentiated according to groups of consumers, which can require different kinds of seeds and their reproductions, and it is formed due to life cycle of seeds. The seeds of new varieties should be considered as innovative product, where innovative agricultural producers play the greatest part in the formation of market of new varieties seeds. ; Особенности формирование рынка семян зерновых культур Рассмотрены особенности формирования рынка семян. Акцентировано внимание на том, что семена как товар имеют рыночную ценность и потребительский спрос, а рынок семян является связующим звеном между продавцами и покупателями. Рынок семян рассматривается и как рынок сортов. Отмечено, что характер сортовой политики на современном этапе развития изменился в сторону увеличения количества сортов. Рынок семян формируется исходя из географической сегментации - деления рынка на различные географические единицы. Сегментирование по географическим критериям подразумевает региональное расположение хозяйств-потребителей и климатические условия. Рынок семян дифференцирован на группы потребителей, для каждой из которых могут потребоваться различные сорта семян и их репродукций, а особенностью является то, что он формируется исходя из этапов жизненного цикла семян. Семена новых сортов следует рассматривать как инновационный продукт, где большая роль в формировании рынка семян новых сортов и ускорении сортосмены отводится сельхозтоваропроизводителям-инноваторам.
BASE