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This paper sets out a comprehensive framework to identify regional business cycles within Spain and analyses their stylised features and the degree of synchronisation among them and the Spanish economy. We show that the regional cycles are quite heterogeneous although they display some degree of synchronisation that can be partially explained using macroeconomic variables. We also propose a dynamic factor model to cluster the regional co-movements and test if the country cycle is simply the aggregation of the regional ones. We find that the Spanish business cycle is not shared by the 17 regions, but is the sum of the different regional behaviours. The implications derived from our results are useful both for policy makers and analysts.

This paper sets out a comprehensive framework to identify regional business cycles within Spain and analyses their stylised features and the degree of synchronisation both within them and between them and the Spanish economy. We show that the regional cycles are quite heterogeneous although they display some degree of synchronisation. We also propose a dynamic factor model to cluster the regional comovements. We find that the Spanish business cycle is not the same as those of the 17 regions, but is the sum of the different regional behaviours. Clusters with a high industrial weight, per capita income and human capital and a low unemployment rate are also more synchronized. The implications derived from our results are useful both for policy makers and analysts.

Old Cycles - New Cycles: the American Case Hervé Péléraux The eighties expansion period in the United States had been rather long. This unusual fact stimulated once again the debate, which had appeared at the end of World War two, about a possible stabilisation of the American economy. Does the absence of recession during the last decade signify that a new step in the progress toward economic stability had been reached ? Considering persisting fluctuations, which the National Bureau of Economic Research's chronology does not reveal, we can provide a negative answer. During the eighties the cycle had not vanished. It was hidden by shocks which disturbed its mechanism and extended the growth period beyond its usual lenght. In the opposite direction, larger fluctuations can be expected due to institutional changes in the way the economy works. Deregulation basically affects monetary policy's effectiveness which is crippled by a greater indépendance of the financial system. New labor market patterns, like the disappearing of collective négociation about wages and the emerging of precarious jobs, involve greater fluctuations of wage incomes whose link with economic activity is therefore strengthened. When we have ascertained that budgetary policy cannot be other than restrictive, that fiscal reforms have reduced tax progressivity and finally that structural changes in demand components do not smooth GNP fluctuations, we shall conclude that the American economy became less stable and will be more cyclical in the future.

Les recherches empiriques récentes qui ont été menées sur les super cycles des prix des produits de base nous conduisent, dans cet article, à faire retour aux travaux que N.D. Kondratiev et S. Kuznets consacrèrent à la question des prix dans l'entre-deux-guerres. D'une part, les cycles de longue durée des prix qui avaient été mis en évidence par ces derniers et qui présentaient des périodicités de l'ordre d'une cinquantaine (Kondratiev) et d'une vingtaine d'années (Kuznets) le furent à partir d'une analyse de la dynamique des prix de matières premières. D'autre part, les durées moyennes des super cycles des prix des produits de base qui ont été identifiés au cours de ces dernières années s'étendent sur une séquence temporelle particulièrement large (22 à 54,5 ans) dans laquelle s'insèrent, parmi d'autres, les périodicités Kuznets et Kondratiev. Ce résultat mérite de retenir l'attention car, depuis les années 1980, la plupart des contributions empiriques qui ont corroboré l'existence de cycles longs ont insisté, à une très large majorité, non pas sur la présence de ces deux types de récurrences dans les séries étudiées, mais sur celle de l'une et l'absence de l'autre. A l'encontre de ces études, celles qui ont été menées dernièrement sur les super cycles des prix des produits de base invitent, non pas à opposer Kuznets et Kondratiev, mais, au contraire, à rapprocher ces auteurs sur la question des prix, tous deux étant des précurseurs de la problématique des cycles longs des prix des produits de base.

"There are many steps in the nitrogen cycle that include difficult concepts and words: denitrification, prokaryotes, ammonia, and more. With the help of this understandable book, even struggling readers will grasp this cycle of nature. Low-level language, fact boxes, and an extended glossary provide readers with essential vocabulary explanations that allow them to further understand each step of the cycle. Full-color diagrams aid readers' comprehension as they move through the cycle from start to finish--and then around again!"--

"Life on Earth depends on carbon. In fact, about 18.5 percent of a human body's mass is carbon! How carbon is taking in and given off through animals' breathing, the burning of fossil fuels, and more can be shown in the model known as the carbon cycle. Though this concept can be confusing, all readers have a chance to understand this concept through the text and simple diagrams in this book! Both struggling readers and those looking for review can find the most important components and vocabulary of the carbon cycle in low-level, accessible text."--

Are business cycles mainly a response to persistent exogenous shocks, or do they instead reflect a strong endogenous mechanism which produces recurrent boom-bust phenomena? In this paper we present new evidence in favour of the second interpretation and, most importantly, we highlight the set of key elements that influence our answer to this question. In particular, when adopting our most preferred estimation framework, we find support for the somewhat extreme notion that business cycles may be generated by stochastic limit cycle forces; that is, we find support for the notion that business cycles may primarily reflect an endogenous propagation mechanism buffeted only by temporary shocks. The three elements that tend to favour this type of interpretation of business cycles are: (i) slightly extending the frequency window one associates with business cycle phenomena, (ii) allowing for strategic complementarities across agents that arise due to financial frictions, and (iii) allowing for a locally unstable steady state in estimation. We document the sensitivity of our findings to each of these elements within the context of an extended New Keynesian model with real-financial linkages. ; The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, grant agreement No 649396.

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of financial cycles using a large database covering 21 advanced countries over the period 1960:1-2007:4. Specifically, we analyze cycles in credit, house prices, and equity prices. We report three main results. First, financial cycles tend to be long and severe, especially those in housing and equity markets. Second, they are highly synchronized within countries, particularly credit and house price cycles. The extent of synchronization of financial cycles across countries is high as well, mainly for credit and equity cycles, and has been increasing