Suchergebnisse

The accurate (exact) prediction of tax revenue is a very important task for state budget planning. Both underestimation and overestimation of the planned revenue could cause problems in case the revenue is used to finance government functions. In the past few years planning of profit tax revenue was not very exact: the sum of the profit tax collected was considerably smaller or considerably larger than the planned profit tax revenue. The difference between the actual and planned revenue was about 12–56 % every year. There are several related factors which aggravate profit tax revenue modelling. It is doubtful if the indicator of profit tax revenue is stationary. The assumption of the stationarity of indicators is usually made when applying econometric models to the indicators. This problem is caused by a frequent change of the Profit tax law. In addition, transitional processes, invoked by privatization, integration to EU, and etc were typical of the Lithuanian economy in the past few years. Therefore very general equations used to describe the profit tax revenue of macroeconometric models of many countries are not relevant to model and predict the profit tax revenue in Lithuania. In order to predict budget revenues accurately, their modelling methodology needs to be created so as to be effective in the situation where regression relations are complicated while disposable series of observations are rather short (the quarterly profit indicators have been known since 1998 in Lithuania). The objective of this dissertation is to develop the compound methodology of profit tax modelling and predicting, based on the use of legal information, economic information, and analysis of statistical relations. The main attention is paid to the analysis of profit tax revenue and the two-stage modelling methodology is presented here. Financed by the Lithuanian State Fund of Science and Studies, the project of "Mathematical Models of Lithuanian Economy to Predict Processes of Macroeconomy", aimed at the creation of a macroeconometric model of Lithuanian economy, have been pursued for several years. The system of equations of the government finances sector is an important part of the project and the last part of the dissertation is dedicated to its formation.

The accurate (exact) prediction of tax revenue is a very important task for state budget planning. Both underestimation and overestimation of the planned revenue could cause problems in case the revenue is used to finance government functions. In the past few years planning of profit tax revenue was not very exact: the sum of the profit tax collected was considerably smaller or considerably larger than the planned profit tax revenue. The difference between the actual and planned revenue was about 12–56 % every year. There are several related factors which aggravate profit tax revenue modelling. It is doubtful if the indicator of profit tax revenue is stationary. The assumption of the stationarity of indicators is usually made when applying econometric models to the indicators. This problem is caused by a frequent change of the Profit tax law. In addition, transitional processes, invoked by privatization, integration to EU, and etc were typical of the Lithuanian economy in the past few years. Therefore very general equations used to describe the profit tax revenue of macroeconometric models of many countries are not relevant to model and predict the profit tax revenue in Lithuania. In order to predict budget revenues accurately, their modelling methodology needs to be created so as to be effective in the situation where regression relations are complicated while disposable series of observations are rather short (the quarterly profit indicators have been known since 1998 in Lithuania). The objective of this dissertation is to develop the compound methodology of profit tax modelling and predicting, based on the use of legal information, economic information, and analysis of statistical relations. The main attention is paid to the analysis of profit tax revenue and the two-stage modelling methodology is presented here. Financed by the Lithuanian State Fund of Science and Studies, the project of "Mathematical Models of Lithuanian Economy to Predict Processes of Macroeconomy", aimed at the creation of a macroeconometric model of Lithuanian economy, have been pursued for several years. The system of equations of the government finances sector is an important part of the project and the last part of the dissertation is dedicated to its formation.

The paper analyses the changes of labour productivity in the European Union countries, discusses the fac - tors that affect labour productivity; also shows that labour productivity varies greatly across European Union countries. During study econometric model is used for twenty European Union countries. Based on regres - sion analysis results time period were defined during which the increase of investments into physical capital has the strongest effect on labour productivity in different European countries.

The paper analyses the changes of labour productivity in the European Union countries, discusses the fac - tors that affect labour productivity; also shows that labour productivity varies greatly across European Union countries. During study econometric model is used for twenty European Union countries. Based on regres - sion analysis results time period were defined during which the increase of investments into physical capital has the strongest effect on labour productivity in different European countries.

The paper examines the relationship between economic growth and the use of renewable energy sources in the European Union in the period 2009-2019. With the rapid development of their economies, more and more countries are moving towards more efficient energy measures that also address the challenges of climate change - renewable energy sources. However, it is not clear what impact these resources have on economic growth, so this paper will analyze their impact on the key economic indicator of GDP. The paper performs statistical analysis and econometric models, which allow to evaluate the existing relationship between the selected indicators. Renewable energy sources have an indirect impact on GDP growth, so the relationship between the energy indicators, the changes of which are determined by renewable energy sources, and GDP and the dynamics of the selected period is analyzed first. Then, an econometric model of ADL is analyzed and developed in detail, which will allow to estimate the relationship between the countries with the highest and lowest GDP and the volume of renewable energy sources, as well as the popularity of certain RES.

The aim of the paper is to investigate the effects of agricultural subsidies on income variability of Lithuanian dairy farms. In addition, the observed heterogeneity in income risks across farms and time is explained in terms of farm characteristics. It was employed balanced farm-level panel data of the Lithuanian farm accountancy network (FADN) was used to construct coefficients of variation of five-year gross farm revenues over the period 2010 to 2014. Various econometric models are applied to measure the effect of off-farm income, total subsidies, farm size, and financial immobility on the variability of gross farm incomes. Estimations suggest that agricultural subsidies, liquidity have positive impact on income risk. The age of farmers negatively influences the income risk. There is non-linear relationship between farm size and income risk.

The aim of the paper is to investigate the effects of agricultural subsidies on income variability of Lithuanian dairy farms. In addition, the observed heterogeneity in income risks across farms and time is explained in terms of farm characteristics. It was employed balanced farm-level panel data of the Lithuanian farm accountancy network (FADN) was used to construct coefficients of variation of five-year gross farm revenues over the period 2010 to 2014. Various econometric models are applied to measure the effect of off-farm income, total subsidies, farm size, and financial immobility on the variability of gross farm incomes. Estimations suggest that agricultural subsidies, liquidity have positive impact on income risk. The age of farmers negatively influences the income risk. There is non-linear relationship between farm size and income risk.

Many separate economics after world economic crises are looking to help their economies improve faster through export. Recently some accusations between main world exporters to USA have risen for possible exchange rate manipulation, with intention to increase export. According to results of the paper, these accusations are reasonable. In the first part of the paper the theory analysis on export and exchange rate is presented. Also there is a review of other researches of exchange rate influence on export and possible manipulation of same exchange rate. In the second part of the paper hypothesis of the research, data and econometric model is presented. In the last part of the study there are results of the research. According to the results, Mexico's and Canada's exports to USA have elasticity of exchange rate. Also Granger causality of exchange rate on separate exports of Mexico, Canada, Japan, China and European Union has been found. These results justify the accusations and tension between mentioned exporters

Many separate economics after world economic crises are looking to help their economies improve faster through export. Recently some accusations between main world exporters to USA have risen for possible exchange rate manipulation, with intention to increase export. According to results of the paper, these accusations are reasonable. In the first part of the paper the theory analysis on export and exchange rate is presented. Also there is a review of other researches of exchange rate influence on export and possible manipulation of same exchange rate. In the second part of the paper hypothesis of the research, data and econometric model is presented. In the last part of the study there are results of the research. According to the results, Mexico's and Canada's exports to USA have elasticity of exchange rate. Also Granger causality of exchange rate on separate exports of Mexico, Canada, Japan, China and European Union has been found. These results justify the accusations and tension between mentioned exporters

Many separate economics after world economic crises are looking to help their economies improve faster through export. Recently some accusations between main world exporters to USA have risen for possible exchange rate manipulation, with intention to increase export. According to results of the paper, these accusations are reasonable. In the first part of the paper the theory analysis on export and exchange rate is presented. Also there is a review of other researches of exchange rate influence on export and possible manipulation of same exchange rate. In the second part of the paper hypothesis of the research, data and econometric model is presented. In the last part of the study there are results of the research. According to the results, Mexico's and Canada's exports to USA have elasticity of exchange rate. Also Granger causality of exchange rate on separate exports of Mexico, Canada, Japan, China and European Union has been found. These results justify the accusations and tension between mentioned exporters

Lithuania became European and World market share, arose the problem to evaluate not only internal but also external factors, when forecasting agricultural production, consumption and foreign trade. This can be done using econometric models, which allow consider the European Union (EU) and World balance sheets components forecasts and project developments of the Lithuanian agriculture. Objective of the study - to prepare forecast for the agricultural and food sector up to the year 2020. Tasks of the study: 1. To analyze the models used for the agricultural and food sector projections and select the most suitable in respect to the conditions of the country; 2. To identify indicators that affect the Lithuanian agriculture and food sector development; 3. To analyze and project the EU and national support influence for the developments of different agricultural and food sector branches; 4. To propose and assess forecasts of the main crop and livestock production balance sheets. Statistical data analysis, experts' interview and econometric sectoral modeline are used in the research study. The analysis is performed for main agricultural sectors using economic and manufacturing indicators for 2000‐2008. The first section consists of review of agricultural and food sectors forecasting models and research study methodology preparation. Lithuanian and EU macroeconomic assumptions, which have influence on agricultural and food sector development, are proposed in the second chapter. The third chapter consists of analysis and evaluation of current EU and national support influence on agricultural and food sector development. There are prognoses of crop (grains, rapes, sugar beet, potatoes) and animal (meat milk) sectors balance sheets up to the year 2020 in the fourth and fifth chapters.

Lithuania became European and World market share, arose the problem to evaluate not only internal but also external factors, when forecasting agricultural production, consumption and foreign trade. This can be done using econometric models, which allow consider the European Union (EU) and World balance sheets components forecasts and project developments of the Lithuanian agriculture. Objective of the study - to prepare forecast for the agricultural and food sector up to the year 2020. Tasks of the study: 1. To analyze the models used for the agricultural and food sector projections and select the most suitable in respect to the conditions of the country; 2. To identify indicators that affect the Lithuanian agriculture and food sector development; 3. To analyze and project the EU and national support influence for the developments of different agricultural and food sector branches; 4. To propose and assess forecasts of the main crop and livestock production balance sheets. Statistical data analysis, experts' interview and econometric sectoral modeline are used in the research study. The analysis is performed for main agricultural sectors using economic and manufacturing indicators for 2000‐2008. The first section consists of review of agricultural and food sectors forecasting models and research study methodology preparation. Lithuanian and EU macroeconomic assumptions, which have influence on agricultural and food sector development, are proposed in the second chapter. The third chapter consists of analysis and evaluation of current EU and national support influence on agricultural and food sector development. There are prognoses of crop (grains, rapes, sugar beet, potatoes) and animal (meat milk) sectors balance sheets up to the year 2020 in the fourth and fifth chapters.

Lithuania became European and World market share, arose the problem to evaluate not only internal but also external factors, when forecasting agricultural production, consumption and foreign trade. This can be done using econometric models, which allow consider the European Union (EU) and World balance sheets components forecasts and project developments of the Lithuanian agriculture. Objective of the study - to prepare forecast for the agricultural and food sector up to the year 2020. Tasks of the study: 1. To analyze the models used for the agricultural and food sector projections and select the most suitable in respect to the conditions of the country; 2. To identify indicators that affect the Lithuanian agriculture and food sector development; 3. To analyze and project the EU and national support influence for the developments of different agricultural and food sector branches; 4. To propose and assess forecasts of the main crop and livestock production balance sheets. Statistical data analysis, experts' interview and econometric sectoral modeline are used in the research study. The analysis is performed for main agricultural sectors using economic and manufacturing indicators for 2000‐2008. The first section consists of review of agricultural and food sectors forecasting models and research study methodology preparation. Lithuanian and EU macroeconomic assumptions, which have influence on agricultural and food sector development, are proposed in the second chapter. The third chapter consists of analysis and evaluation of current EU and national support influence on agricultural and food sector development. There are prognoses of crop (grains, rapes, sugar beet, potatoes) and animal (meat milk) sectors balance sheets up to the year 2020 in the fourth and fifth chapters.

Lithuania became European and World market share, arose the problem to evaluate not only internal but also external factors, when forecasting agricultural production, consumption and foreign trade. This can be done using econometric models, which allow consider the European Union (EU) and World balance sheets components forecasts and project developments of the Lithuanian agriculture. Objective of the study - to prepare forecast for the agricultural and food sector up to the year 2020. Tasks of the study: 1. To analyze the models used for the agricultural and food sector projections and select the most suitable in respect to the conditions of the country; 2. To identify indicators that affect the Lithuanian agriculture and food sector development; 3. To analyze and project the EU and national support influence for the developments of different agricultural and food sector branches; 4. To propose and assess forecasts of the main crop and livestock production balance sheets. Statistical data analysis, experts' interview and econometric sectoral modeline are used in the research study. The analysis is performed for main agricultural sectors using economic and manufacturing indicators for 2000‐2008. The first section consists of review of agricultural and food sectors forecasting models and research study methodology preparation. Lithuanian and EU macroeconomic assumptions, which have influence on agricultural and food sector development, are proposed in the second chapter. The third chapter consists of analysis and evaluation of current EU and national support influence on agricultural and food sector development. There are prognoses of crop (grains, rapes, sugar beet, potatoes) and animal (meat milk) sectors balance sheets up to the year 2020 in the fourth and fifth chapters.

The agricultural sector is the primary economic sector. Therefore, the production factors released form the agricultural production process can be employed in the remaining economic sectors, thus generating additional gross value added. In addition, substantial public support is allocated for the agricultural sector. As in the European Union, these processes are regulated by the Common Agricultural Policy. Consequently, researches in the agricultural efficiency are of great importance from the economic standpoint. Indeed, the conventional methods of the efficiency analysis suffer from certain caveats. Accordingly it is important to employ the robust mathematical - statistical methods. This paper aims to establish a methodology for analysis of the productive agricultural efficiency, based on the robust frontier and econometric methods. The paper discusses the following methodological issues: the measures of efficiency and models for efficiency analysis, methodology of the agricultural efficiency analysis. Some state-of-the art frontier methods are presented, namely partial frontiers, double bootstrap, conditional measures of efficiency, multi-directional efficiency analysis. As a result, the proposed methodology for the analysis of Lithuanian family farm efficiency enables to estimate both aggregate efficiency along with its determinants and the input-specific efficiencies. The aggregate efficiency was estimated by the means of the double bootstrap, whereas the multi-directional efficiency analysis was employed to estimate the input-specific efficiencies. The proposed methodology was employed to a sample of Lithuanian family farms.