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Analyzing the poverty and distributional impact of macro events requires understanding how shocks or policy changes on the macro level affect household income and consumption. It is clear that this poses a formidable task, which of course raises the question of the appropriate methodology to address such questions. This paper presents one possible approach: A sequential methodology that combines a macroeconomic model with a behavioral micro-simulation. We discuss the merits and shortcomings of this approach with a focus on developing country applications with a short to medium run time horizon. - This chapter is a re-print of: Lay, J. (2010). Sequential macro-micro modelling with behavioural microsimulations. International Journal of Microsimulation, 3(1), 24-34.

"This paper analyses the impact of the regional age structure on growth of German regions. Based on a neoclassical growth model an augmented Solow model was derived and estimated in a spatial econometric approach. Besides labor and human capital, public spendings and urbanisation measures are controlled for. Adding the age structure of the employed labor force, which we use as proxy for the age pattern of human capital, improves the regression model significantly. Spatial autocorrelation is controlled for and supports OLS results. To get deeper insights in the effectiveness of the age structure quantile regression techniques are applied to distinguish the effects between various levels of growth rates. The results of the different estimation approaches provide evidence that the age structure matters for growth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

"Spatial and Temporal Interdependence" published on by Oxford University Press.

"This chapter aims at presenting a synopsis of econometric models and empirical findings that can serve as a basis to estimate the migration potential within CEEC's. The underlying task is to focus on the foreseeable EU enlargement and its possible consequences for migratory movements between the new entrants and the current 15 Member States. A direct impact of developments on European labour markets and an indirect impact of specific demographic trends can be assumed. The chapter concludes with political considerations regarding free or temporarily restricted access to Western Europe's labour markets." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Following an overview of James Heckman's (2000) article on the state of econometrics to shed light on the role of statistics in political science, efforts to link theory & data in formal empirical research are scrutinized. The empirical content of formal models is described, using the example of political outcomes in a democracy to illustrate the simultaneous equations model. Why contemporary theorists see such a model as inadequate is addressed, along with how they are moving beyond them. In addition, why they view such empirical work as unsatisfactory is considered as well as how they are pursuing stronger theory-data links. However, benefits of inadequate models for structuring empirical work are noted. Attention turns to a series of thumbnail sketches of examples from microinstitutionalist theory & austere political theory with simultaneous equations modeling & structural estimation; examples come from US politics, comparative politics, international relations, & international political economy. Four standards guide a look at the substantive contributions of formal empirical work: (1) understanding political phenomena & solving empirical puzzles, (2) advancing rich theory & stimulating new theory, (3) rejecting theory, & (4) improving public policy. Advances in the study of voter turnout are seen to demonstrate the utility of formal empirical work. A call is made for more & improved research of this kind. 3 Figures. J. Zendejas

"The free movement of persons is one of the lasting and extremely controversial issues in the debate whether to integrate European labour markets or not. When in 1957 the Benelux countries, Germany and France joined Italy to build the European Economic Community, Germans and French were afraid of being overflowed by Italian guest workers. However, something completely unexpected happened: only for a very short period of time some Italians went North to become 'Gastarbeiter' in Germany. A larger proportion of southern Italians (still relatively few) decided to migrate into the fast developing northern part of the country but did not even think about moving outside Italy. When in 1981 Greece and in 1986 Portugal and Spain became Members of the European Community (EC), Northern EC Member countries again worried about the South-North migration potential. And again, Portuguese and Spaniards as well as Greeks did not follow conventional prejudices. Only in very limited numbers they moved into Northern Member States mostly remaining at home. Currently, the free movement of workers again is a hot issue with regard to the eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU). Members of the EU are extremely anxious of mass immigration flows from the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). How realistic are these expectations? And what would happen if labour mobility was actually permitted? In this chapter we will try to provide an answer to these two questions.; In the second section we will draw a parallel between the southern enlargement of the EC and the eastern enlargement of the EU with respect to migration. We will undertake an econometric estimate of South-North migration flows and assume that the estimated parameters are of exemplary significance for the eastern enlargement of the EU. Based on the resulting amount of hypothetical free East-West labour movements, section 3 will present results of a general equilibrium model which we use to simulate the consequences of migration on other macroeconomic variables of the CEECs and the EU. Section 4 will shortly discuss and conclude." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))