Suchergebnisse

Abstract: 'The Politics of Uncertainty' in Practice: The 2020 Presidential Election that Changed BelarusUp until 2020 Aleksandr Lukashenka's authoritarian regime had ruled Belarus for 26 years without major challenges. Thus, the popular mobilization that took shape in connection with the August 2020 presidential election came as a surprise. It was not the first time that elections in Belarus were not fair – but it was the first time that large sectors of the population reacted openly. Six months later, Belarusians all over the country were still contesting the falsified results. What contributed to this mobilization and politicization of a previously largely apolitical society? Why does that development represent such a serious threat to the authoritarian system? This study sees the Belarusian presidential election and its aftermath as illustrating the 'politics of uncertainty' of electoral authoritarian regimes. Because of the intrinsic insecurity of authoritarian systems, all regular elections in that context entail risks, which in theory might lead to change. In Belarus, the emergence of latent threats to the regime's legitimacy in the form of social cleavages and an economic crisis, combined with the fundamental dynamics of the 'election game', amplified this instability. The election served as the starting point for a process of transformation that became the most serious threat ever faced by the Lukashenka regime.

Abstract: East is East and West is West? Comparing Party System Stability in Europe 2008–2019This article compares trends in party system stability in Central/ Eastern Europe (CEE) and Western Europe, to see if recent studies indicating that the two regions have become more similar hold when the results of outcomes of several post-financial-crisis elections are taken into consideration. Further, it enquires into the underlying causes of electoral volatility and whether they differ between the two regions. In all, 82 parliamentary elections in 25 EU countries 2008–2019 are analyzed as regards electoral volatility (Pedersen's Index) and support for new parties ('volatility type A'). The results show that, when the most likely confounding variables are controlled for, a significant difference between the two regions remains, but also that there is a converging trend on both indicators. Moreover, whereas electoral volatility in the West is driven by the level of corruption together with the effective number of parties, unemployment and economic growth as well as the number of effective parties are the main factors explaining the same phenomenon in CEE. There is also evidence that volatility in CEE, unlike in Western Europe, is also driven by a path-dependent logic, where previous volatility scores explain subsequent ones. That finding may have implications for the prospects of future party system stabilization.

Armenia's Velvet Revolution - Why So Overdue? In early April 2018 Armenia completed the transition from semi-presidential rule to a parliamentary republic. Under the slogan 'More power to the people', the ruling Republican Party had paved the way for the incumbent president, Serzh Sargsyan, to continue in power, now as prime minister as his second and final term of presidency was drawing to an end. However, the ensuing events ended with popular protests, the 'Velvet Revolution', which forced Sargsyan and the Republicans out of office. The new administration, led by the former opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan, has ousted several influential leaders and initiated an ambitious anti-corruption programme. Nonetheless, one significant issue remains: early elections that are supposed not only to reflect the prevailing political landscape in Armenia but also reform the country's election laws. What triggered the spring 2018 uprising, when corruption and social discontent have been both well-known and prevalent in Armenia over the past two decades? This article offers insights into the background to the popular uprising, and the relation between Armenia and its large and influential diaspora, citing two main factors for the delay since independence in 1991 – the historical legacy of the perils of internal disunity, together with the effects of the unresolved Karabakh conflict. It concludes with some reflections on the way forward.

Abstract: Security and Vulnerability After Armenia's Velvet Revolution: Elite Perceptions on Gender Equality, Human Rights and Conflict ResolutionThe Velvet Revolution in spring 2018 and the snap elections that followed in December 2018 shook Armenia. This article examines the country's new political elite and other central social elites, and their affective and evaluative beliefs with respect to human security, drawing on an elite survey conducted in 2017 and 2019, complemented by in-depth interviews. The aim is to shed light on whether Armenia's elite-level political culture is headed for progressive change concerning the rights of disadvantaged groups, primarily women and sexual minorities – an expectation among the young and educated in Yerevan. This study finds that, as regards reducing vulnerability and increasing the security and freedom of choice for those traditionally disadvantaged in Armenian society, the values and judgments of the new elites have remained basically traditional.

March 2018 – and then what? The issue of political succession in Putin's Russia
As president of Russia and a prominent political leader, Vladimir Putin has consistently endeavoredto legitimize his rule by appealing to central political myths and taken-for-granted truths inRussian society. In rhetoric and official communication, he emerges as the guarantor of domesticorder and stability, the protector of traditional values, and a staunch advocate of Russia'sstatus and position as a great power in a world often depicted as hostile. What is being communicatedhere, and apparently finds resonance among broad segments of public opinion, is thaton all these parameters Putin is uniquely qualified to lead Russia. Four times in the course of18 years, Putin has been elected president in the first round of elections, and throughout thisperiod he has received high rankings in regular monthly opinion polls. However, his legitimationstrategies have been so firmly linked to the persona of Putin that we may speak of an emergingdilemma with his fourth presidency. Who could fill his shoes as his successor? The articleanalyzes this dilemma, taking its point of departure in Weber's seminal theorizing on types oflegitimate authority and the routinization of charisma. It discusses the evident dearth of crediblesuccessor candidates, and concludes by discussing possible actions for dealing with or postponingthe issue of succession.