Suchergebnisse

Conclusion: The main objective of the present text is to present a synthetic analysis of selected issues concerned with the electricity market in Poland. Within the analysis of the changes in the period of 2008-2015 emphasis was laid on the trends in electricity generation and demand, while taking into account their relationship with the fluctuating level of the gross domestic product. Besides, the main processes taking place in the exchange trading in electricity were pointed to. Next, the demand for electricity up to 2030 was presented, whereby greater attention was drawn to the relationship between the increase in electricity consumption and the level of the gross domestic product and the value of sold production of industry. Another presented forecast was concerned with electricity prices; it included the main determinants of relevance for the drop or rise in prices in the future. The forecast was supplemented with a presentation of the results obtained with the aid of selected methods for analysing the dynamics of economic phenomena. Given the need to elaborate the research problem, the text features research questions related to the following conclusions: (1) Is it possible to point out any special characteristics of the structure and workings of the electricity market in Poland? The Polish energy market is closely connected with two carriers, that is black coal and lignite coal – the total installed capacity on the National Power Grids for commercial energy generation based on black and lignite coal is 71%. The structure of renewable energy sources is dominated by biomass burning. Poland's peculiar energy structure determines specific problems for economy. First and foremost, one should point to: (1) the costs of the transformation of the high-emission sector of electricity generation, (2) the costs of the transformation of the old coal-based technology, (3) the costs of the introduction of renewable energy sources. In the future, the aforesaid costs will affect electricity prices, which in turn will give rise to a decline of the competitiveness of the Polish economy. Furthermore, given the median wages of household consumers, a substantial increase in the costs of living is to be expected. A crucial factor that might prevent the rise in electricity prices is market liberalization and consolidation of transmission infrastructure, including cross-border infrastructure, but such changes might also have a negative effect on the Polish energy sector. (2) Is it possible to point out a characteristic trend in the changes in demand for electricity in Poland? All the presented forecasts of demand for electricity predict a rise up to 2030. The consequence will be a need to develop the installed capacity in the commercial energy industry and in the renewable energy industry. Also, the rise in consumption will necessitate a development of transmission and distribution infrastructure as well as larger outlays on their renovation, since currently around 16% of the transmission infrastructure is more than 30 years old, and 24% of it is more than 40 years old. Forecasts of the increase in the demand for electricity are connected with the forecasts of Poland's economic development. This connection can also be seen in the case of the analysis of the 2008-2015 data, which have been presented in the text. It must be pointed out that the demand for electricity will continue rising, and its dynamics will depend on the country's economic situation. (3) Is it possible to point out a characteristic trend in the changes in electricity prices in Poland? It should be assumed that electricity prices in Poland will continue rising, which is borne out by both the qualitative and quantitative analysis. The arguments for the rise in electricity prices have already been made in some parts of the conclusion – in general they can be related to the costs of the transformation of the Polish energy sector. The issue concerned with possible action that might be undertaken to avoid that trend is now debatable. As regards the conclusions drawn from own research into the application of selected methods for analysing the dynamics of economic phenomena, it must be stressed that electricity prices in Poland for medium-sized household consumers will rise by 59% by 2030, whereas electricity prices for industrial consumers will drop by 11% by 2030. The increase in electricity prices will be conditional upon the determinants mentioned in the conclusion; furthermore, there is another factor that will considerably affect the pricing trends, that is both the technical and legal scope of the construction of the homogeneous energy market in the European Union It is also worth mentioning that in connection with the conducted analysis it is to be assumed that considerable disproportions in electricity prices will continue in the European Union in 2030 as well. For household consumers in Poland the projected price is to be 0.22 euro/kWh, whereas the average price for the whole of the European Union is to be 0.4 euro/kWh, and for Germany – 0.65 euro/kWh. For medium-sized industrial consumers in Poland, the projected price is to be 0.073 euro/kWh, whereas the average price for the whole of the European Union is to be 0.094 euro/kWh, and for Germany – 0.059 euro/kWh. The text presents only a selection of issues concerned with: (1) the operation of the electricity market in Poland, (2) forecasts of the demand for electricity, and (3) forecasts of electricity prices. Hence, it must be emphasised that there is a need for further research, which would explore particular topic groups, and address other determinants affecting the presented forecasts of phenomena and/or employ more advanced forecasting methods. ; The subject of analysis in the present paper is a description of the workings of the electricity market in Poland. The years 2008-2015 came under closer scrutiny, whereby emphasis was laid on the trends in electricity generation and demand, while taking into account the country's economic development. Besides, the text mentions forecasts of the demand for electricity in 2030, as well as forecasts of electricity prices. As regards the forecast of electricity prices, both the qualitative and quantitative forecasts have been presented. In the latter case, the results of author's own forecast have been presented; these were obtained with the aid of the selected applied methods for the analysis of economic phenomena dynamics (the exponential model and the linear trend model). Given the necessity to elaborate the research problem, the text addresses the following research questions: (1) Is it possible to point out any special characteristics of the structure and workings of the electricity market in Poland?, (2) Is it possible to point out a characteristic trend in the changes in demand for electricity in Poland?, (3) Is it possible to point out a characteristic trend in the changes in electricity prices in Poland? ; 1 ; 141 ; 165 ; Środkowoeuropejskie Studia Polityczne

By using customer‐level residential billing data from 2008 to 2010 of a major utility company in Phoenix metropolitan area, this study adopts a matching approach and a difference‐in‐differences method to estimate empirically the impact of a prepaid electricity plan on residential electricity consumption, after correcting for selection bias. Results show that the prepaid program is associated with a 12% reduction in electricity usage, customers with lower level of wealth or those with higher amount of arrearage prior to switching to the prepaid program tend to save more electricity after switching, and prepaid customers save more electricity in the summer than winter. (JEL L94, Q41)

Systematically analyzing for the first time the production output from electricity consumption for enterprises, sectors, and industries, this study uses the function of EAI (electricity as input), and includes national E-GDP figures for more than 20 countries.

| openaire: EC/H2020/765515/EU//ENSYSTRA Funding Information: The authors thank Niclas Mattsson for providing the GIS data. The authors also thank Emil Nyholm, Hanna Ek Fälth and David Daniels for helpful discussions and suggestions. This work was conducted as part of the ENSYSTRA project, which was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No: 765515. L.R. and F.H. were partially funded by Chalmers Energy Area of Advance. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s) ; Energy system models for long-term planning are widely used to explore the future electricity system. Typically, to represent the future electricity demand in these models, historical demand profiles are used directly or scaled up linearly. Although the volume change for the electricity demand is considered, the potential change of the demand pattern is ignored. Meanwhile, the future electricity demand pattern is highly uncertain due to various factors, including climate change, e-mobility, electric heating, and electric cooling. We use a techno-economic cost optimization model to investigate a stylized case and assess the effects on system cost and electricity supply mix of assuming different demand patterns for the models. Our results show that differences in diurnal demand patterns affect the system cost by less than 3%. Similarly, demand profiles with a flat seasonal variation or a winter peak result in only minor changes in system cost, as compared to the present demand profile. Demand profiles with a summer peak may display a system cost increase of up to 8%, whereas the electricity supply mix may differ by a factor of two. A more detailed case study is conducted for Europe and the results are consistent with the findings from the stylized case. ; Peer reviewed