Dohodovna konvergencija Jugoistočne Europe i Europske unije ; Income convergence between Southeast Europe and the European Union
Ovaj rad analizira prosječnu bruto per capita dohodovnu konvergenciju osam zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope (JIE) prema prosjeku EU-a. Cilj je utvrditi koji faktori doprinose konvergenciji zemalja JIE regije kao i opisati kretanje konvergencije u periodu 2000.-2018. godine, s posebnom pozornošću na dva pod perioda, prije i nakon Svjetske ekonomke krize. Koristimo pri tome kombinaciju parametarskih i neparametarskih metoda i linearne panel regresije fiksnih efekata s robusnim standardnim greškama. Rezultati sugeriraju da je konvergencija bila podstaknuta procesom EU integracija, obrazovnim nivoom stanovništva, investicijama (stranim, domaćim i javnim), kreditnom ekspanzijom u privatnom sektoru, kao i rastom javnih rashoda. S druge strane, ekonomska kriza, nezaposlenost i inflacija bili su glavni faktori koji su utjecali na divergenciju procesa. Zaključujemo na kraju i da je post-tranzicijski model rasta dominantan u regiji SEE, temeljen na stranim direktnim investicijama, nedovoljan, i da su domaće privatne investicije kritično-nedostajući faktor brže dohodovne konvergencije. ; This paper investigates the average gross per capita income convergence of eight Southeast European economies towards the EU average. Our goal is to analyse which factors have driven that convergence in the SEE region and describe convergence paths in the 2000-2018 period, concerning two sub-periods, before and after the economic crisis. We use a combination of parametric and nonparametric methods and a fixed effects linear panel regression with robust standard errors. Results suggest that the EU integration process drove convergence, education level, investment (FDI, private domestic and public investments), and private sector lending, as well as by government expenditures. Economic crisis, unemployment, and inflation were the main factors which have influenced the divergence process. We also concluded that the post-transition growth model dominant in the SEE region, based on an FDI inflow, has not sufficient for income convergence in this region. Private domestic investments are a critical missing factor for faster income convergence.