Suchergebnisse

Using eight annual household surveys for the Netherlands between 2006 and 2013, we find that respondents' personal adverse financial crisis experiences do not only reduce their trust in banks, but also have an immediate negative effect on generalized trust. Respondents who were customers of a bank that ran into problems have less trust in banks than respondents without this experience. Respondents who were customer of a bank that failed have a significantly stronger decline of generalized trust than other respondents. Our results also suggest that personal financial crisis experiences do not have a significant direct effect on trust in the banking supervisor.

Six years after the outbreak of the financial crisis that had shaken the global financial system, experts and analysts all over the world continue discussing the effectiveness, scope and adequacy of mechanisms and measures implemented in the meantime, as well as the adequacy of the underlying theoretical concept. A global consent has been reached on ensuring financial stability through the interaction of monetary, fiscal and prudential policy to ensure the necessary macroprudential dimension of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. The USA crisis spilled over to Europe. Strong support of governments to bail out banks quickly resulted in sovereign debt crises in some peripheral EU Member States. Fiscal insolvency of these countries strongly shook the EU and increased doubts in the monetary union survival. The European Union stood united to defend the euro and responded strongly with a new complex and comprehensive financial stability framework. This supranational framework is a counterpart to the global financial stability framework created by the G20 member countries. Starting from the specific features of the monetary policy whose capacities are determined by euroisation, available instruments and resources for preventive supervisory activities, as well as the role of the government in crisis management, Montenegro created a framework for maintaining financial stability and prescribed fostering and maintaining financial stability as the main objective of the Central Bank of Montenegro.

The relation between demand and supply at the world markets has to be balanced involving their mutual concordance with the amount of money. Although, there should be more money and loans than there are international trade and services which guarantees sustainable growth without recessions, depressions and crises. Aberrations from such basic market laws cause recession. Present recession is the consequence of long lasting violation of basic economic law. Banking, finance, marketing and stock markets are out of control trying to satisfy corporate and political desires. Loans were given which contributed to excessive demand. Technological development provided large series of products. The economy volume was not in compliance with market laws. Marketing asked for greater consumption. Distribution of material goods was not equal, so the buying power of undeveloped countries stayed at the relatively low level. Therefore, growth rate of world economy fell. Danger of crash of investment banks and stock markets after violating economic relations is not doubtful. Domicile countries of big banking and economy systems are trying to protect them by investing from their own sources. And the consequences of current recession are poor globalization process led by rich countries and stoppage of economical growth of poor Asian and African countries. Consequences of world financial crisis will not leave out banks from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Even though banks from Bosnia and Herzegovina are still not in the credit system of world banks, which would be an additional burden to the current crisis, it will reflect indirectly small countries as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina. ; ????? ?????? ? ???????? ?? ????????? ????????? ???? ???? ???????????, ????????????????? ?? ?? ? ?????? ????????? ????????? ?? ????????? ?????. ????? ? ??????? ?? ??????? ???? ????? ???? ?? ?????? ??????????? ???????? ???? ? ?????? ???? ?? ????????? ??????? ?????? ??? ????????, ????????? ? ?????. ????????? ?? ??????? ???????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ????????. ??????? ???????? ????????? ?? ???????????? ?????? ???????? ?????????? ??????. ??????????, ?????????, ????? ? ????????? ????? ?? ?? ???????? ? ???????????? ?????????????? ? ?????????? ??????????. ?????????? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ???????? ???????? "???????????". ?????????? ???????? ?? ???????? ?? ?? ????????? ???????? ? ??????? ????????. ????????? ????? ???? ???? ? ??????????? ?? ???????? ????????. ????????? ?? ?????? ??? ???? ????????. ?????????? ???????????? ?????????? ???? ???? ???????????, ?? ?? ??????? ??? ???????????? ?????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????. ????? ?? ????? ????? ???????? ????????? ????. ???????? ??, ????? ?????????? ?????????? ??????, ???????? ???????????? ????? ? ????? ???? ??????????. ????????? ?????? ??????? ?????????? ? ?????????? ??????? ?????????? ?? ?? ??????? ???????? ????????? ?? ????????? ??????. ???????? ?????? ????????????? ?? ?????? ??????? ?????? ? ??????????? ?????????? ??????? ?????????? ???????? ? ???????? ?????? ???????? ????????? ??????? ????????. ????????? ???????? ??????????? ????? ???? ???????? ?? ?????? ????? ????? ? ???????????. ???? ????? ????? ? ??????????? ???? ???? ? ???????? ????????? ????????? ?????? ???? ?? ?? ???????????? ???????? ?????? ?????, ???? ?? ??? ????? ?????????? ????? ?? ???? ?????, ?? ? ????? ? ???????????.

Fiscal constraint is potentially lax in catching-up economies, but it has not been abused by most countries considered in this paper. Fiscal risks are significant currently, but sustainability and structural balances are not threatened as a rule, if the return to potential growth rates is to be achieved in the medium run. The risks to countercyclical public financing could be discouraged by a comprehensive EU stabilization policy of some sort. Early euro adoption, absent credible stabilization policy, is not the first best policy option for fiscal policy targets.

Keynes, the British economist, says the state should intervene in the economy: infrastructure needs to be developed, public works have to be organized and social politics are to be improved. If all of the above are achieved, there is a chance of keeping the economy in balance in a time of crisis. In the Great Depression of 1929-1933 Roosevelt's New Deal programme helped the United States to recover from the crisis, conduced to preserve civil democracy and laid the foundations of the welfare state. The so-called sub-prime crisis that began at the end of 2006 represents the culmination of a super boom that started more than 25-years ago. The variable intensity financial crisis originating from the real estate and banking sectors resulted in the decline of the U.S. economy; its slowing economic growth has an impact on the whole world's economy. Therefore, the question is whether there is any way out of the current global economic crisis, like 80 years ago.

This paper discusses the global financial crisis of 2008/9 in thirteen countries, the ten new EU members that previously were communist and the three countries of Western former Soviet Union. Their problems were excessive current account deficits and private foreign debt, currency mismatches, and high inflation, while public finances were in good shape. The dominant cause was fixed exchange rates. Many lessons can be drawn from this crisis. A dollar peg makes no sense in this part of the world. The five currency boards in the region have lacked credibility. By contrast, inflation targeting has worked eminently. The euro has proven credible both in the countries that officially adopted it and in the countries that adopted it unilaterally. With the exception of Hungary, all the countries in the region have displayed decent fiscal policies. No government should accept large domestic loans in foreign currency and they can be regulated away. The IMF has successfully returned to the original Washington consensus with relatively few conditions: a reasonable budget balance and a realistic exchange rate policy, while focusing more on bank restructuring. The most controversial issue is the role of the ECB. The ECB should facilitate the accession of willing EU members to the euro by relaxing the ERM II conditions.

In 2008 financial crisis, stock market turned highly volatile while U.S. government had proposed a series of policies rescuing the economy. This study examines convergence to market efficiency from government financial policies. We find a significant impact of contemporaneous order imbalance on return, while the relation between return and lagged imbalances is insignificant, implying that lagged order imbalances have no predictability on return. From a time-varying GARCH model, we find that explaining power of order imbalance on return declining, implying that volatility plays an important role in return-order imbalance relation. We take a further step to find that there is no strong direct relationship between order imbalances and stock volatility. The story casts on market maker behaviors. Market makers accommodate high inventory levels to mitigate stock volatility on financial policies announcements. An imbalance based trading strategy we develop fails to beat the market. It supports financial policy announcement efficiency.

The financial crisis in the last decades has become a common phenomenon. However, due to the process of globalization, financial markets' integration and their interdependency, financial crisis tend to evolve and gain not only regional but also global scale. In the context of financial market liberalization, globalization and internalization, the subsequences caused by financial risk and financial crises contagion become more visible and more severe. The financial crisis that originated in one region of the world through the rapid process of financial markets' globalization may spread worldwide and adversely affect other geographical regions, thus causing serious problems and disruption throughout the whole global financial system in the way of destabilizing it. Although it is not easy to forecast crises with high reliability, recently a lot of scientific researches were done on the analysis of financial crisis indicators. Early warning system of forthcoming crisis that uses a lot of different economical and financial indicators can indeed be a useful tool for preparation for the coming financial crisis, for evaluating subsequences of crisis to a country's economy and for assessing the impact of financial crisis future vulnerabilities. In the article all the financial crisis indicators which are presented in scientific literature are examined systemically and classified into four main groups. The main finding is that all the financial crisis indicators differ in their significance on financial crisis contagion. Moreover, all indicators and their observance simultaneously let both academics and politicians to evaluate the current economic situation and to determine if a country is struck by financial crisis or not. By using system of financial crisis indicators it could help to detect contagion at an earlier stage and help to prepare for the forthcoming crisis and to prevent from huge losses when the financial crisis hits. After all, the knowing of financial crisis contagion indicators system could be extremely valuable in developing appropriate financial risk management strategies. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15544/ssaf.2012.28

India survived near-crisis situations twice in the 1990s. What determined its ability to learn from the experience of a balance of payments crisis in 1991 to shield the economy from the pressures of the Asian financial crisis in 1997? By linking the two crises within a framework of external and internal economic and political constraints, the paper explains the dynamics of the crises. It argues that India's success can be attributed to five sets of decisions taken during 1991-97: devaluation, engaging the IMF, floating the exchange rate while increasing the central bank's autonomy to intervene against speculative pressures, opening up the external sector while maintaining asymmetric capital controls, and liberalising the financial sector. The paper analyses the options, political opposition and eventual outcomes for each set of decisions. Based on this approach it argues that India's ownership of its reform programme helped set the pace of reform while close interaction between technocrats and the IMF added credibility. But the balance between entrenched traditional interest groups and the demands of new interests determined the scope of reform. Finally, the paper raises broad political questions for the lessons other countries can draw from India's experience.

The growth of the Irish economy in the years 1995-2007 was dramatic and unparalleled by Western economies, earning Ireland the moniker "The Celtic Tiger". Emerging from conditions of high unemployment, very high rates of emigration of graduates, and enormous government debt in the 1980s, the transformation of the Irish economy in two decades was remarkable and lauded by economists and commentators. High growth rates were facilitated by a number of factors, including the presence of a large number of multinationals producing goods for export, generally benign world economic conditions, low interest rates, a low taxation regime, and an expansionary government policy which embraced the tenets of the 'free market'. With the onset of the financial crisis, however, came another rapid transformation in the Irish economy. From being one of the fastest growing Western economies in the late 1990s, in 2009 Ireland suffered the greatest contraction of any OECD country since the second world war. The reasons for this dramatic reversal of fortune were attributable not only to the global financial crisis, but also to government policies and the structure of the Irish economy. In this chapter, the remarkable rise and fall of the Irish economy is described and analysed. Influences on the performance of the Irish economy in this period, including the benign world economy, government policy, and the structure of the Irish economy are analysed and examined. Proposals on how best to initiate recovery are also assessed, particularly the narrow focus of discourse which largely concentrates on attempts to 'fix' the current system, without considering alternative approaches.

India survived near-crisis situations twice in the 1990s. What determined its ability to learn from the experience of a balance of payments crisis in 1991 to shield the economy from the pressures of the Asian financial crisis in 1997? By linking the two crises within a framework of external and internal economic and political constraints, the paper explains the dynamics of the crises. It argues that India's success can be attributed to five sets of decisions taken during 1991-97: devaluation, engaging the IMF, floating the exchange rate while increasing the central bank's autonomy to intervene against speculative pressures, opening up the external sector while maintaining asymmetric capital controls, and liberalising the financial sector. The paper analyses the options, political opposition and eventual outcomes for each set of decisions. Based on this approach it argues that India's ownership of its reform programme helped set the pace of reform while close interaction between technocrats and the IMF added credibility. But the balance between entrenched traditional interest groups and the demands of new interests determined the scope of reform. Finally, the paper raises broad political questions for the lessons other countries can draw from India's experience.

In this study, we examine the relationship between the structure of financial systems and financial crises. Using cross-country data on financial structures and crises, we find that there is a significant short-term reversal in development of the banking sector and the stock market during both bank crises and market crashes, with the corporate bond market moving in the same direction as bank credit. However, the results are significant for countries with market-based financial systems but not for countries with bank-based financial systems. Emerging markets have mainly bank-based financial systems, which may explain why these markets require more time to recover from economic downturns after a financial crisis. Therefore, we argue that governments should emphasize a balanced financial system structure as it helps countries to recover from financial crises more quickly compared with countries that lack such balanced structures.

Abstract Essays on Financial Crisis and Institutions by Sharon Leona Poczter Doctor of Philosophy in Business Administration University of California, Berkeley Professor Paul Gertler, Chair In late 2008, economies worldwide underwent close to complete economic paralysis in what has now been established as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. In response, economic research focused on understanding how a well-developed financial market such as the U.S. could fall victim to a severe financial crisis, behavior typically associated with less-developed economies. While important, the examination of the Great Recession is in some respects limited, as it is impossible to understand the long-term effects of the crisis and subsequent government response without post-crisis data. Further, information regarding the details of the implementation of government policy is typically politically sensitive and therefore not readily available to researchers. For these reasons, the empirical economic literature leaves several first order questions regarding the long term effects of financial crisis and subsequent government response unanswered. This dissertation hopes to fill that gap. Using micro-level longitudinal data from the Asian financial crisis of 1997 in Indonesia, I closely examine the long term effects of financial crisis and several government policy responses on firms in the financial and real side sectors. While the economic and institutional environment in Indonesia at that time had unique characteristics, similar reforms were carried not only then in other Asian countries, but during the Great Recession in economies worldwide. In particular, I carry out to my knowledge the first empirical assessment of the long term effects of a bank bailout program. This dissertation, therefore, hopes to provide general insight for economies undergoing severe financial distress, not only those in other emerging markets. Chapter 1 of this dissertation analyzes the long term effects of a bank bailout program on two central policy variables; lending and risk-taking. Using confidential information regarding the selection process of banks for government support, I show that the program was successful at increasing lending but not without increasing the riskiness of investment, even controlling for the amount of lending. This result provides evidence that a bailout policy aimed at simultaneously increasing lending while not engendering increased risk-taking is untenable. Chapter 2 focuses on how patterns of industry evolution in the manufacturing sector change over a financial crisis. As productivity is seen as key for economic growth, it is important for policymakers to understand which firms survive over a financial crisis, and how survivorship impacts long term industry productivity. If financial crisis facilitates "creative destruction", governments may not want to interfere by financially supporting failing firms. However, if gains to productivity following a crisis are not a direct result of creative destruction, other modes of government intervention may be favorable. Using industry decompositions for the population of manufacturing firms over a fifteen year period, I find that the crisis coincided with dramatic changes in productivity patterns within the manufacturing sector and that many of these changes were sustained in the long run. Further, results indicate that post-crisis growth was largely driven by new entry, providing preliminary evidence that reforms aimed at financially supporting lower productivity firms may be misplaced. The final chapter looks at the impact of privatization, another policy reform implemented as a response to the crisis, on firm-level productivity. This paper aims to understand if privatization is successful at increasing productivity in the Indonesian context, and also the mechanisms through which privatization leads to changes in efficiency. I find that privatization increases productivity via change in ownership per se, and that an increase in the competitiveness of the environment does not have a significant effect on changes to the efficiency of firms.

Global financial crisis and its evolution on current world, as each state seeks to manage the global economy in order to protect its citizens from major financial setbacks in the future, become more and more popular issue. The global financial crisis destroys the real estate and financial markets, causes different countries coming into recession, which later has to be overcome not at individual but at larger effort. Most of the time of recession governments must borrow from international institutions, in order to save the country and the commercial banks not letting them to go bankrupt. In the term of financial crisis many people lose their money that has been invested not only in securities but also in the real estate and the unemployment rate begins to grow in leaps. The financial crisis is not just a phenomenon of the last decade. 81 till the Second World War and 182 after the Second World War financial crises, of which ten in one way or another affected the whole world, promote analysis of the attributes between these crises, in order to avoid massive losses across the global economy in the future. The article analyzes the key global financial crises in the last three centuries. The same causes of these crises, the effects and the assumptions enable discussion that the crisis is repeated cyclically. Therefore, one of the stages of the economic business cycle is the crisis. Each country business cycles are manifested in different ways, but during to the impact of globalization after the boom period in the markets, the financial asset price bubbles always burst, letting the crisis affect all the states and therefore causing an occurrence of global financial crisis, classified as a large-scale financial crisis type. Although the biggest global financial crisis happened in different centuries and in different economic conditions, respectively, in 1929 and 2008, there could be seen multiple interfaces between these crises. The central bank is responsible for a stable financial system in the country and in order to effectively manage it, central bank can apply different means of financial stability maintenance, including preventive, administrative and systematic liquidation assistance. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15544/ssaf.2012.27

Doutoramento em Gestão ; This dissertation aims to investigate the association between financial reporting (and related accounting choices and disclosure policies) with periods of economic and financial crises. In order to do that, a paper methodology was used. This approach allows focusing on a particular topic under that broad theme at each time, while allowing structuring the research and its dissemination to particular targets. On the first paper entitled "Financial Reporting and the Dynamics of Crises: a Literature Review", we review extant literature on the role played by financial reporting (and broadly the accounting system) on periods of economic and financial crises. Previous literature, both theoretical and empirical, shows that financial reporting should have low importance in causing an economic crisis. Opportunities for future research are presented. To further understand this subject in higher detail, we then proceed on a paper that aims to answer the question: "Does Earnings Quality Mitigate Negative Shocks to Stock Markets?" Accounting quality proxied by earnings quality should mitigate uncertainty about firms' value and prevent some of the dynamics associated with the negative shocks to the market. Results show that firms with lower accounting quality exhibit stock prices decreases larger than those of firms with better accounting quality during those events. This association is both statistically and economically significant. When the analysis is extended to market booms, results are not symmetric, suggesting earnings quality do not proxy for market betas. Lastly, in an article titled "The Impact of Measurement Criteria on Investors' Judgement and Decisions", we aim to extend our research of the impact of different measurement criteria on investors' decisions and judgements, especially concerning historical cost vs fair value reporting. Results obtained in an experiment show that there are statistically significant effects on relevance judgements of the different criteria. Additional effects are detected for different levels of fair value judgement, (mark-to-market vs mark-to-model). Regarding investors' earnings prediction we found a volatility effect as we move from historical cost to fair value measurement. ; Esta dissertação tem como objetivo investigar a associação entre o relato financeiro (escolha de politicas contabilísticas e divulgação da informação financeira selecionadas) e a evolução dos períodos de crise económica e financeira. Na realização da dissertação optou-se por uma metodologia de artigos científicos individualizados. Esta metodologia permite focalizar num aspeto específico do tema geral em estudo, permitindo assim estruturar e divulgar as análises efetuadas para cada tópico, tendo em mente targets distintos. No primeiro artigo, intitulado "Financial Reporting and the Dynamics of Crises: a Literature Review", é feita uma revisão da literatura relativa ao envolvimento da contabilidade em períodos de crise económica e financeira. A investigação existente, quer teórica quer empírica, não permite concluir que o reporte financeiro e o sistema contabilístico desempenham um papel primordial no despoletar das crises. Pistas para investigação futura são apresentadas. Em seguida, procuramos detalhar mais o tópico em estudo, tentando apresentar resposta à questão: "Does Earnings Quality Mitigate Negative Shocks to Stock Markets?". A qualidade da informação financeira, aproximada pelo conceito de earnings quality, deverá mitigar a incerteza relativa ao valor da empresa e, consequentemente, aliviar os efeitos de choques negativos ao mercado de capitais. Os resultados obtidos permitem encontrar prova de que as empresas que divulgam informação contabilística de menor qualidade experienciam maiores quedas nos seus preços do que aquelas cuja III informação contabilística tem maior qualidade. Os resultados obtidos são robustos e significativos, quer estatisticamente, quer economicamente. Quando os mercados de capitais apresentam resultados anormalmente bons, o inverso não se verifica, pelo que podemos concluir que a qualidade da informação financeira não representa um fator de risco sistemático de mercado. Finalmente, no último artigo intitulado "The Impact of Measurement Criteria on Investors' Judgement and Decisions", pretendemos aprofundar a investigação relativa às consequências da escolha de um dado critério de mensuração, (em especial o contraste entre custo histórico e justo valor), nas decisões e julgamentos dos investidores. Os resultados, obtidos através de uma metodologia de experiência, permitem identificar um efeito estatisticamente significativo ao nível do julgamento relativo à relevância dos diferentes critérios de mensuração, em especial para os diferentes níveis de determinação do justo valor. Relativamente às decisões dos investidores na estimativa de uma previsão dos resultados a partir das demonstrações financeiras obtidas com mensuração ao custo histórico vs. justo valor verifica-se um efeito de volatilidade acrescida deste ultimo critério face ao primeiro. ; N/A