This dissertation, comprising three academic papers, deals with the trade-off between fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stabilization. The first paper examines the specification of fiscal reaction functions: We argue that the fiscal response to public debt is varying over time, finding formal empirical evidence in favor. We then link this non-linear fiscal response to changes in the interest rate-growth differential and the level of public debt. The second paper takes time-varying parameter fiscal reaction functions to an out-of-sample forecast performance evaluation, embedding it in ...
This dissertation, comprising three academic papers, deals with the trade-off between fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stabilization. The first paper examines the specification of fiscal reaction functions: We argue that the fiscal response to public debt is varying over time, finding formal empirical evidence in favor. We then link this non-linear fiscal response to changes in the interest rate-growth differential and the level of public debt. The second paper takes time-varying parameter fiscal reaction functions to an out-of-sample forecast performance evaluation, embedding it in ...
This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of alternative tax regimes. For this purpose, a one-sector general equilibrium model is constructed in which heterogeneous agents differ in productivity and holdings of capital in the sense of incurring transaction costs for participating in the capital market. A Cobb-Douglas production function is employed that can capture the capital-skill complementarity effect and the difference in productivities of the skilled and unskilled workers. With regards to fiscal policy experiments, this paper examines tax structures where a permanent reduction in each of the three main tax instruments namely, consumption, labour and capital income tax is compensated by a permanent increase in one of the remaining two policy instruments such that the government budget constraint is tax revenue neutral. The government levies taxes on consumption, labour income and capital income in order to finance its only activity, government consumption. Next, the model economy is calibrated to the Greek economy to reflect the great ratios over 1960:1-2005:4 and then, it studies the long-run, welfare and transitional effects of the undertaken analysis. The sensitivity analysis shows that the quantitative and qualitative findings are quite robust.
This paper studies the optimal behavior of a democratic government in its use of fiscal policies to redistribute income. I present a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to analyze (1) the differences between the effects on the optimal tax rate of permanent and nonpermanent perturbations and (2) the relationship between initial inequality and both steady-state levy and income distribution. In addition, the optimal fiscal policy for the transition is calculated. The analysis leads me to three main conclusions. First, there are no important differences between how taxes respond to a permanent or nonpermanent perturbation. Second, the initial inequality has a huge effect on both actual levy and actual income distribution. And finally, the Chari, Christiano, and Kehoe (1992) result, i.e., taxes on labor are roughly constant over the business cycle, holds only if the productivity ratio is constant. In addition, the model implies a positive correlation between inequality and tax rate, just as in the basic literature.
This paper examines why fiscal policy is procyclical in developing as well as developed countries. We introduce the concept of fiscal transparency into a model of retrospective voting, in which a political agency problem between voters and politicians generates a procyclical bias in government spending. The introduction of fiscal transparency generates two new predictions: 1) the procyclical bias in fiscal policy arises only in good times; and 2) a higher degree of fiscal transparency reduces the bias in good times. We find solid empirical support for both predictions using data on both OECD countries and a broader set of countries.
En aquesta tesi, treballo en tres assajos independents sobre política fiscal. Tot i que la motivació està relacionada amb els reptes brasilers, els resultats serveixen de referència a altres economies en desenvolupament. En el primer capítol, discuteixo les respostes de les polítiques en un context de recessió profunda, avaluant diferents normes fiscals. En el segon capítol, estudio la política fiscal òptima quan un país experimenta un augment brusc dels ingressos fiscals a causa de la pèrdua de recursos naturals no renovables. El capítol 3 explora l'impacte de la despesa pública en el benestar dels ciutadans en diferents àmbits d'actuació del govern. Junts, aquests capítols aporten una contribució a un ampli espectre de discussions sobre política fiscal. A l'hora d'avaluar diferents normes fiscals i les seves implicacions per a les decisions polítiques, exploro la rellevància d'obrir un espai fiscal a un govern que apliqui una política anticíclica, fins i tot trobant proves que aquesta política no és desitjable com a norma general. A més, en estudiar polítiques òptimes a l'hora d'enfrontar-nos a un risc inesperat de recursos naturals, mostro la importància d'un comportament responsable de l'estalvi del govern per desafiar la incertesa en la gestió de la riquesa intergeneracional. Finalment, estudiar l'impacte de la despesa pública en el benestar de les persones posa de manifest que potser els governs no utilitzen de manera eficient els pagaments d'impostos dels ciutadans. ; En esta tesis, trabajo en tres ensayos independientes sobre política fiscal. Si bien la motivación se relaciona con los desafíos brasileños, los resultados sirven de referencia a otras economías en desarrollo. En el primer capítulo, analizo las respuestas de política en un contexto de recesión profunda, evaluando distintas reglas fiscales. En el segundo capítulo, estudio la política fiscal óptima cuando un país experimenta un aumento abrupto de los ingresos fiscales debido a una ganancia inesperada de recursos naturales no renovables. El Capítulo 3 explora el impacto del gasto público en el bienestar de los ciudadanos en distintas áreas de acción del gobierno. Juntos, estos capítulos aportan una contribución a un amplio espectro de debates sobre política fiscal. Al evaluar las distintas reglas fiscales y sus implicaciones para las decisiones de política, exploro la relevancia de abrir el espacio fiscal para que un gobierno implemente una política contracíclica, incluso encontrando evidencia de que esta política no es deseable como regla general. Además, al estudiar las políticas óptimas cuando se trata de una ganancia inesperada de recursos naturales, muestro la importancia del comportamiento de ahorro gubernamental responsable para desafiar la incertidumbre en la gestión de la riqueza intergeneracional. Finalmente, al estudiar el impacto del gasto público en el bienestar de las personas, se destaca que tal vez los gobiernos no estén utilizando de manera eficiente los pagos de impuestos de los ciudadanos. ; In this thesis, I work on three independent essays concerning fiscal policy. Even though the motivation relates to the Brazilian challenges, the results serve as references to other developing economies. In the first chapter, I discuss policy responses in a deep recession context, assessing distinct fiscal rules. In the second chapter, I study optimal fiscal policy when a country experiences an abrupt increase in fiscal revenues due to a nonrenewable natural resource windfall. Chapter 3 explores the impact of public expenditures on citizens' well-being in distinct government action areas. Together, these chapters bring a contribution to an ample spectrum of fiscal policy discussions. In assessing distinct fiscal rules and their implications for policy decisions, I explore the relevance to open fiscal space to a government implement a countercyclical policy, even finding evidence that this policy is not desirable as a general rule. In addition, by studying optimal policies when dealing with a natural resource windfall, I show the importance of responsible government savings behavior to challenge uncertainty in intergenerational wealth management. Finally, studying the impact of public expenditures on people's well-being highlights that maybe governments are failing to use in an efficient way citizens' tax payments.
Macroeconomists often prefer monetary policy to fiscal policy as a tool to stabilize business cycles. Fiscal policy is typically only effective with a lag, and results in permanent deficits with higher nominal interest rates and distortionary taxes. In addition, a high marginal propensity to save out of temporary tax cuts might result in low fiscal multipliers with empirical estimates often below 1 (see Ramey (2011b) and Barro and Redlick (2011)). The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, however, constrains the effectiveness of monetary policy during liquidity traps. Large stocks of sovereign debt limit the scope of fiscal stimulus, and inflated central bank balance sheets constrain asset-purchase programs as forms of unconventional monetary policy. The unclear effectiveness of several measures of monetary policy - both conventional and unconventional - after the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis calls for alternative mechanisms to increase aggregate demand and hence promote growth. This issue is especially relevant for several major developed economies that, years after the end of the Great Recession in the United States, are still experiencing sluggish growth. In particular, southern European countries are still facing the contractionary effects of the austerity measures they implemented to abate their debt-to-GDP ratios during the Euro sovereign-debt crisis. Many economists argue structural reforms are necessary to improve the competitiveness of these countries in the long run, but promoting a short-run increase in aggregate demand to jump start the economy is also a compelling objective for policy makers. The conundrum the Euro area has faced since the start of the Great Recession is to generate inflation and ultimately stimulate consumption and economic growth in a setting in which traditional monetary policy measures were not viable and governments could not generate growth with fiscal stimulus because of their large debt-to-GDP ratios. This challenge was so compelling that in his Marjolin lecture on February 4, 2016, the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, asserted that "there are forces in the global economy that are conspiring to hold inflation down." (Draghi, 2016).
While the ECB helped mitigate the euro crisis in the aftermath of Lehman, it has stretched its monetary mandate and moved into fiscal territory. This text describes and summarizes the crucial role played by the ECB in the intervention spiral resulting from its bid to manage the crisis. It also outlines ongoing competitiveness problems in southern Europe, discusses the so-called austerity policy of the Troika, comments on QE and presents two alternative paths for the future development of Europe.