Suchergebnisse

This article question what are the causes of inaccuracies in opinion polls, and what is the political impact of opinion polls and their inherent risk of inaccuracies. Examples are provided of opinion polls that failed to predict the outcome of the 2008 Democratic primary elections. The author considers the strong US traditions of polling and ties to the academic community, and examines special issues present in American politics and the nomination process for the 2008 election to explain low polling accuracy. Statistical and methodological premises of opinion polls are discussed. It is suggested that the issue of race had an impact on respondents' willingness to answer truthfully questions about their candidate of choice in primary election opinion polls. A discussion of media presentation of polling results is included and it is argued that media organizations are increasingly ordering exclusive polls as opposed to reporting aggregate results from multiple polls conducted by independent sources. The bandwagon theory of the effect polling influencing results is discussed. The article refers to the American Association for Public Opinion Research special panel to shed light on pre-election polling. It is concluded that opinion polls will continue to have an important role in election reporting. References. E. Sundby

Jinping is assumed to be China's strongest leader since Deng Xiaoping - even since Mao, some argue. It might therefore be expected that Xi Jinping, at the top of a one-party state, has the power and ability to reform China. This article analyses how structural constraints limit Xi Jinping's power and freedom of action using his ability to implement a new course for the country's economic policy as case. To avoid being caught in the middle-income trap, China must adjust its investment and export-driven model to a more innovation, consumer and welfare-based development model. We use the school of historical institutionalism as framework, and examine how (i) path dependency, (ii) informal structures, norms and values, (iii) institutional autonomy, and (iv) institutional capacity in different ways limit and constrain the power and ability of Xi Jinping to implement a successful restructuring of the country's economic model. Adapted from the source document.

A roundtable discussion involving Dag Herbjornsrud, Jan Erik Snoen, and Halvard Leira that addresses general Norwegian media coverage of the USA. A mixed media picture is discussed; on one hand conservative politics are exaggerated and presented in a negative light while the underlying idea of freedom and opportunity is appealing to the media. The duality of media coverage is attributed to strong cultural and military ties with the USA contrasted by strong political differences. It is suggested that the USA is used to compare and contrast to Norwegian society in order to better understand Norwegian issues. The existence of an American attitude of exceptionalism is debated and it is suggested that this is an academic construct rather than popular opinion. It is argued that Norwegians are unable to fully appreciate the level of diversity in the United States and have a tendency to form opinions based on elitist East Coast sources and entertainment sources such as film and television. It is agreed that Norwegians have premeditated opinions about the US that are not based on political science and/or historical research or factual knowledge. E. Sundby

The Iraq War in 2003 represented a conflict of interest for the Norwegian government, as the situation called for them to choose between the relationship with the United States & international law. Being a small nation, it was in Norway's interest to protect both these interests. In the end, the government decided not to support the American-led invasion, with reference to international law. This decision has by some been interpreted as a shift away from Norway's traditional Atlanticist policy. This article illustrates how the second Bondevik Government succeeded in balancing different national interests in the decision-making process. On the one hand, it supported the UN & met the demands of the Norwegian public opinion. On the other hand, it managed to uphold its relationship with the United States. This balancing act illustrates that small states have limited room for manoeuvre in international politics, & will most likely continue to have so in the future. References. Adapted from the source document.