Suchergebnisse

The article discusses the relationship between monetary policy and price of oil, in broader sense price of commodities. Firstly it focuses on describing the relationship of key macroeconomic variables, gas prices and other commodities against oil prices. Subsequently, it discusses the existence of a "transmission channels" through which monetary policy can be propagated into oil prices (or prices of commodities). Secondly it provides further insight into the forecasting process of the CNB, in both a retrospective look back at the prospects of oil prices in the past and the analysis of transitory and permanent shock (the rise in oil prices of 30 USD/b). Simulated oil price shock is calculated from the average level of Brent oil prices in the first quarter of 2010, i.e. 77.50 USD/b. Adapted from the source document.

A review essay on a book by Martin Potucek et al, Pruvodce krajinou priorit pro CKeskou republiku ([A Guide in the Landscape of Priorities for the Czech Republic] Prague: Centre Social & Economic Strategies, 2002). This publication presents the results of a 2-year forecasting project initiated (& funded) by the Czech government & prepared by a wide circle of academic & executive experts. The review follows two aims: to (1) introduce the reader to the structure & complexity of the text & to present the reviewer's evaluation of it, & (2) outline the role of forecasting studies in modern societies & their specific evolution & current situation in the domestic (academic & political) context. The review appreciates that the preparation of the study was based on the interaction of actors in academic, executive, & political spheres who see a stake for themselves in future studies. The critical assessment focuses on the theoretical claims of the study, which suggest understanding current transformations with reference to debates about modernity.

The article identifies the most important controversies related to public opinion polls on electoral preferences, explains their substance, & discusses their impact on the possibility to use information obtained in the surveys. The article further focuses on the importance of surveys for representative democracy, the impact of the publication of opinion polls' results on public opinion, the possibilities of manipulating surveys, the risks related to the growth of research production (high non-response rate & the growth of survey costs, non-transparency of the market, incorrect application of advanced data analyses), the limits to election forecasting, & issues related to the relationship between research & journalism. Opinion polls contribute to shaping the environment for political competition. The nature of their impact is determined by their quality. Serious risks are associated with the possibility for intentional manipulation, poor quality of the survey process, & misinterpretation of results. Knowledge on research, publication of contextual information together with the survey data, & free competition in the market can help reduce the risks. The possibilities for quantification in social research do not remove the obligation to ensure sound theoretical grounding & qualified judgment, which are the prerequisites for the credibility of all conclusions drawn from the data. Tables, Graphs, References. Adapted from the source document.