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In this article the forecasting model of career planning of student of University. This model has an empirical nature and lets to control the process and the content of student learning taking into account of his individual characteristics and the predictions of his potential careers.

Based on Soviet sociologists being able to predict the fall of the USSR in the mid 1980's, the author of this article seeks to understand whether social forecasting is possible in our unstable and constantly changing modern world. Relying on the theoretical work of Russian and Western sociologists conducted in the 2000's, including his own research and his participation in three international projects, the author of this article demonstrates that to this day a dichotomous approach prevails in prognostic studies. Such an approach to analysis is preferred by most Anglo-Saxon scientists who study globalization. The article also examines the theoretical-methodological trends being developed outside the boundaries of the aforementioned dichotomous analysis by researchers from third-world countries. For example, subject to analysis is the heuristic potential of analyzing modern globalization as a self-organizing "movement of the movements", as well as the need for interdisciplinary and metabolic analysis. Special attention is devoted to changes on the micro-level, in other words, to the position and lifestyle of an individual under conditions of fluid modernization. The article is concluded by certain specific considerations on the author's part concerning the type and nature of the theory and methodology, which allow for adequately analyzing and predicting the dynamics of our modern non-equilibrium and mobile world. Analyzed are the methodological contradictions between social and physical sciences in their ideas and approaches when it comes to criteria and methods for predicting the dynamics of the globalized world.

вследствие макроэкономической нестабильности ; постоянно меняющихся тенденций на рынке и политической неопределенности значение грамотного и комплексного финансового прогнозирования в корпорации сложно переоценить. В статье отмечена возможность успешного функционирования современной корпорации при использовании наиболее востребованных и актуальных методов финансового планирования и прогнозирования. ; in accordance with macroeconomic instability ; constantly changing market tendencies and political uncertainty sufficient and complex financial forecasting in a corporation is very important. The issue also marks the possibility of successful operating of a modern corporation using the most efficient and actual methods of financial planning and forecasting.

The process of training technical personnel in a professional organization and organization of higher education must be built, primarily, in accordance with the region needs in engineering and technical staff. The task of forecasting the needs in professional human resources for the social and economic development of the Russian Federation has been set at the federal level, and regional governments have to devise measures to solve it. The article presents empirical data on the areas of technical training. Long-term forecast of the projected demand of the Chelyabinsk region in professional human resources for the basic, inertial and pessimistic scenarios of development, taking into account the potential of the vocational education system and higher education in technical areas, has been made. The results of forecasting were presented. ; Процесс подготовки технических кадров в профессиональной организации и организации высшего образования должен строиться в соответствии с потребностями, прежде всего, региона, в инженерно-технических кадрах. Задача прогнозирования потребностей в профессиональном кадровом обеспечении социально-экономического развития РФ поставлена на федеральном уровне, а в ее решении участвуют органы управления регионального уровня. В статье представлены эмпирические данные по наиболее массовым направлениями технической подготовки. Произведен долгосрочный расчет прогнозной потребности Челябинской области в профессионально-кадровом обеспечении по базовому, инерционному и пессимистическому сценарию развития с учетом потенциала системы профобразования и высшего образования по техническим направлениям. Представлены результаты прогнозирования.

Strategic Intelligence is an important management tool that focuses on solving specific issues by scanning the business environment, while highlighting risks, threats and opportunities for organizations. The growing practical application of this approach is due to the need to solve unique research problems in new subject areas for which there is no accumulated knowledge base. A number of methods originally used to solve individual planning and forecasting problems are thus combined into a single holistic concept. In this research paper, the systematization of theoretical approaches to Strategic Intelligence process is carried out, an author's definition of this concept is proposed. Besides, strategic analysis of the identified criteria: goal, method, scale, time horizon, functions, stages of the project, participants, priority level for each direction

Purpose: to establish the features of manifestation of the socio-economic cyclical pattern "The cycle of presidential elections" in the US stock market in modern conditions and to develop recommendations for the practical application of this pattern in the investment activities. Design/Method/Approach of the research: The research was carried out by statistical processing of data on the values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the period from 1887 to 2020. Findings: the research has shown that the regularities in terms of the average increase of the Dow Jones index in different years of the Presidential election cycle in the modern economy are differ from the ones that existed before 1993. At present, only one year can have the practical interest - the year before the US presidential elections, when the average growth of the index is 2-4 times higher than the growth in other years of the cycle. The previously known thesis that the US stock market grows faster under the ruling Democratic Party is also confirmed in the modern economy. Nevertheless, every year the difference between market gains for different years is smoothed out. Within the "Presidential Election Cycle", there is a consistent pattern that the Dow Jones Index grows from its minimum value in the "interim" year to the maximum value of the next, pre-election year. At the same time, in recent decades, the value of the percentage increase has a tendency to decrease, and if earlier, from 1914 to 2011 its average value was 47-48.6%, then in the period from 1993 to 2020 the percentage of growth decreased to 36.7%. Practical implications. The practical application of the research results will make it possible to improve the accuracy of forecasting the prevailing trends in the international stock markets and, accordingly, to increase the efficiency of investments. Originality/Value: This research expands knowledge about the peculiarities of manifestation and use of the cyclical pattern of the "Presidential Election Cycle", offers an updated model of its use in predicting the prevailing trend in the US stock market. The results of the study may be of interest to specialists working in the field of investment in international financial markets. Research limitations/Future Research: The research results provide a basis for conducting similar research for European and Asian financial markets, as well as identifying and researching other cyclical patterns in international financial markets in order to develop applied investment mechanisms that increase the efficiency of investment. Paper type: empirical.

The interest in planning the labor force and forecasting its key characteristics such as the education level, qualification, occupation, etc. emerged in the second half of the 20th century. Forecasts provide the basis for the macro-economic policy of the state and choosing optimal directions of development. According to the authors, the quality of the labor force is indispensable for the sustainable development of the national economy and its place in the global market. The prediction of substantial changes in this quality is an integral part of management both in developed and developing economies though in many instances they have different problems to solve. The differences are discussed through the example of forecasting and planning structural changes in the labor force in India, the UK and the USA. The authors substantiate the choice of these countries by the importance of their experience for the Russian practice. The role of international organizations in the development of the methodology for labor force surveys covering approximately 200 countries is analyzed. In the case of India the special role of IT-companies in the development of innovative education systems is revealed which is based on the forward-looking encouraging policy of the state. The analyzed experience is important for Russia, where rural schools and many regions do not have another opportunity to raise the teaching level to the modern requirements. Forecasts of the employment structure in Great Britain and the USA are made by government bodies aided by non-governmental organizations, e. g. the University of Warwick in Great Britain. In the United States government agencies use the macroeconomic model of the Data Resources, Inc. private company for making forecasts. Particular attention is paid to occupation forecasts and vocational training the analysis of which reveals their importance for structural changes in the economy. The analysis of the US forecast as of 2014 for high demand occupations in 2024 highlighted the complexity of determining key indices and methodological approaches to the prediction of employment and the economy demands for qualified personnel in certain professions. The paper assumes that without solving this problem in the Russian management system, no progress in the future growth of the national economy can be expected. ; Интерес к планированию рабочей силы и прогнозированию ее основных характеристик — уровня образования, квалификации, профессии — появился во второй половине ХХ в. Прогнозы являются основой макроэкономической политики государства и выбора оптимальных направлений развития. Главную роль, по мнению авторов, в устойчивом развитии национальной экономики и ее месте на мировом рынке играет качество рабочей силы. Прогнозирование основных изменений в этом качестве составляет неотъемлемую черту управления как в развитых, так и развивающихся экономиках. При этом они решают во многом различающиеся задачи. Эти различия рассмотрены на примере прогнозирования и планирования структурных изменений в рабочей силе Индии, Великобритании и США. Авторы обосновывают выбор этих стран важностью изучения их опыта для использования в российской практике.Проанализирована роль международных организаций в разработке методологии проведения обследований рабочей силы, охватывающих около 200 стран. На примере Индии выделена особая роль IT-компаний в развитии инновационных систем образования, которая базируется на дальновидной стимулирующей политике государства. Анализируемый в работе опыт важен для России, где сельские школы и многие регионы не имеют другой возможности повысить уровень преподавания до современных требований.Прогнозы структуры занятости в Великобритании и США осуществляются органами государственного управления с помощью неправительственных структур: в Великобритании — Уорикским университетом, в США правительственные агентства используют для прогнозов макроэкономическую модель частной компании Data Resources, Inc.Особое внимание в работе уделено прогнозам по профессиям и профессиональной подготовке, анализ которых позволяет увидеть их важное значение для структурных изменений в экономике. Анализ прогноза высоковостребованных профессий в США на 2024 г. позволил авторам прийти к выводу о сложности определения ключевых показателей и методологических подходов для прогнозирования занятости и потребностей экономики в квалифицированных кадрах и в определенных профессиях. В статье предполагается, что без решения этой задачи в российской системе управления прогресс в будущем росте национальной экономики невозможен.

The regional differentiation makes impossible the sustainable socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation without the monitoring public governance results in space and time. Despite the comprehensive approach of the current procedure, approved by the federal government, it does not adequately assess the executive authorities effectiveness. Its main problem is the impossibility to assume such important administrative function as forecasting the social and economic development of Russian territorial subjects. The authors propose an alternative methodology on the basis of the system economic theory. This technique is implemented in several consecutive stages. Firstly, we develop the system of 30 indicators. Secondly, we normalize the values of the indicators using the method of pattern. Thirdly, we calculate the index of the social and economic development of Russian regions for 2011-2015 assuming that the indicators are equal. Last, we group Russian regions into clusters according to the level of their social and economic development using neural network technologies (Kohonen self-organizing maps). Only 9 in 80 subjects of the Russian Federation (RF) had the degree of realizing the social and economic potential higher than 40 % during the period under consideration. In 2011-2015, the most of regions had a low and lower than average level of social and economic development (with an aggregate share about 64.3 %). It means that, under current conditions, the majority of the RF regions have considerable reserves for realizing their social-economic potential. In particular, the absence of the territorial subjects with a high level of social and economic development proves that. The authors have simulated the social and economic situation of the RF subjects by means of an adequate Bayesian neural networks. The obtained results can be used as the basis for further research in the field of evaluating executive authorities effectiveness and forecasting the level of social and economic development of Russian regions. ; Проанализирована действующая методика оценки эффективности деятельности органов исполнительной власти субъектов Российской Федерации. Выявлены недостатки данной методики. Предложена альтернативная методика мониторинга результатов государственного управления, с помощью которой реализуется такая важная управленческая функция, как прогнозирование. Дана оценка уровня социально-экономического развития регионов по альтернативной методике.

The article demonstrates the predictive capabilities of the previously proposed method of scientiic and technological balance. In addition to linking the scientiic sector with the real economy the equation of the scientiic and technological balance allows for relatively simple forecast calculations. For this purpose, the article considers three forecast scenarios: ''evolutionary'', ''resolute'' and ''reformatory''. Each of them was considered in two variants – with a stimulating personnel policy aimed at stabilizing the number of employed in the scientiic sector, and with an optimizing personnel policy assuming the primacy of eiciency due to the active release of ineicient scientists. As a point of reference for the forecast calculations the averaged science and technology indicators of the G7 countries were taken. These indicators include the ratio of «transmission» of scientiic articles into patents, the productivity of science, the share of the scientiic sector in the total employment, the share of government funding of science, the average price of one patent, etc. Forecast scenarios are based on the target of increasing the efectiveness of the Russian economy to the level of labor productivity of the G7 countries. The calculations have shown that the domestic economy already has positive trends in several areas. Provided they are slightly accelerated through stimulating policies, this will make it possible to successfully implement the catch-up strategy for technological development. According to the forecast scenarios, by 2022 Russia will be able not only to catch up the developed countries in the labor productivity, but even to be slightly ahead of them. However, the calculations show that this can be done only within the framework of the "reformatory" scenario with a stimulating personnel policy. ; For citation: BALATSKY, E. V., YUREVICH, M. A. (2018) Forecasting the efectiveness of the Russian economy on the basis of the scientiic and technological balance. Science. Innovations. Education. No. 2 (28). ...

Currently space industry development sets key macro-economic indicators in the country. It influences on such indicators as value and growth rates of GDP, improves competitiveness of industrial products and whole economies. The paper contains information about main areas of using space activity results in military and civilian spheres, the analysis of the current conditions and prospects of development of the world market of space services aimed at meeting peoples' needs. The authors create a mathematical model for estimating and predicting market capacity given actual trends of reducing space service cost in the world in order to assess development of equipment and technologies in the field of space activities. The paper contains the forecast of changes in the volume of purchases and capacity of space service market until 2026. ; В настоящее время уровень развития космической промышленности задает важнейшие макроэкономические показатели развития в стране, в том числе влияет на значение и темпы роста валового внутреннего продукта, определяет конкурентоспособностьвыпускаемой промышленной продукции и в целом национальной экономики. В статье определены основные области применения результатов космической деятельности, в том числе в гражданской сфере, проведен анализ современного состояния и перспектив развития мирового рынка космических услуг, направленных на удовлетворение потребностей населения. Для оценки развития техники и технологий в области космической деятельности авторами разработана математическая модель оценки и прогнозирования емкости рынка при выявленных тенденциях снижения стоимостикосмических услуг в мире. Построен прогноз изменения объема покупок и емкости рынка космических услуг до 2026 г.

The article discusses aspects of the application of extrapolation and factor approaches to epidemiological forecasting, outlines the limitations and features of their application in relation to the prediction of morbidity.It is shown that when using an extrapolation approach, it becomes possible to predict the most likely numerical characteristics of morbidity in a certain time perspective. At the same time, the accuracy of the obtained forecast depends on the length of the time series and the type of long-term dynamics of morbidity. In turn, the trends formed by the results of forecasting artificially level the critical levels of morbidity that characterize individual periods of time and are fundamentally important for understanding the real picture.The factor approach is based on the prediction of morbidity levels using a certain set of factors. The difficulty of using the factor approach is noted due to the stochasticity of the epidemic process.Based on the results of a retrospective epidemiological analysis of the personalized morbidity of cadets of the Military Medical Academy, the heterogeneity of military contingents in susceptibility to acute respiratory infections of the upper respiratory tract is shown.From the standpoint of the academician V.D .Belyakov's et al. theory of the parasitic systems self-regulation, the conclusion is made about the expediency of using a factor approach for epidemiological forecasting of morbidity in organized collectives. It is proposed to use the state of individual resistance as one of the main factors determining the epidemic well-being of organized collectives.The results of the development and testing of an electronic database that allows epidemiological surveillance of the morbidity of trainees and its linear prediction are presented. ; В статье рассмотрены аспекты применения экстраполяционного и факторного подходов к эпидемиологическому прогнозированию, изложены ограничения и особенности их применения относительно прогнозирования заболеваемости.Показано, что при использовании экстраполяционного подхода становится возможным предсказание наиболее вероятных числовых характеристик заболеваемости в определённой временной перспективе. При этом точность получаемого прогноза зависит от длины временного ряда и типа многолетней динамики заболеваемости. В свою очередь, формируемые по результатам прогнозирования тренды искусственно нивелируют критические уровни состояния заболеваемости, характеризующие отдельные периоды времени и принципиально важные для понимания реальной картины.Факторный подход базируется на прогнозировании уровней заболеваемости с использованием определенного набора факторов. Отмечена трудность использования факторного подхода в связи со стохастичностью эпидемического процесса.На основе результатов ретроспективного эпидемиологического анализа персонифицированной заболеваемости курсантов Военно-медицинской академии показана неоднородность воинских контингентов по восприимчивости к острым респираторным инфекциям верхних дыхательных путей.С позиции теории саморегуляции паразитарных систем академика В.Д. Белякова и соавторов сделан вывод о целесообразности применения факторного подхода для эпидемиологического прогнозирования заболеваемости в организованных коллективах.Предложено использовать состояние индивидуальной резистентности в качестве одного из основных факторов, определяющих эпидемическое благополучие организованных коллективов. Представлены результаты разработки и апробации электронной базы данных, позволяющей проводить эпидемиологическое наблюдение за заболеваемостью обучаемых и её линейное прогнозирование.

Models based on the application of logit regression are constructed for the prediction of bankruptcy for the construction industry and the agricultural sector on the basis of performance accounted for by Russian legislation. Models predict bankruptcy of Russian companies spanning more than 80%. According to the study it was found that such factors as return on assets, the ratio of receivables to total assets, the availability of internal funds, margin costs, liquidity in mobilizing funds are universal in predicting bankruptcy and financial assessment industries of construction and agriculture (these figures are significant at the 5% significance level for both sectors). ; На основе применения методов логит-регрессии построены модели прогнозирования банкротства для предприятий строительной отрасли и отрасли сельского хозяйства на основе показателей. учитываемых российским законодательством. Модели прогнозируют банкротство российских предприятий более чем на 80 %. По результатам исследования было выявлено, что такие показатели, как рентабельность активов, показатель отношения дебиторской задолженности к совокупным активам, обеспеченность собственными оборотными средствами, рентабельность затрат, ликвидность при мобилизации средств, являются универсальными при прогнозировании банкротства и оценке финансового состояния отраслей строительства и сельского хозяйства (данные показатели являются значимыми на 5 %-ном уровне значимости для обеих отраслей).