Die folgenden Links führen aus den jeweiligen lokalen Bibliotheken zum Volltext:
Alternativ können Sie versuchen, selbst über Ihren lokalen Bibliothekskatalog auf das gewünschte Dokument zuzugreifen.
Bei Zugriffsproblemen kontaktieren Sie uns gern.
In: Futures: the journal of policy, planning and futures studies, Band 24, Heft 10, S. 1071-1072
ISSN: 0016-3287
In: Springer Tracts in Modern Physics; Statistical Physics and Economics: Concepts, Tools and Applications, S. 207-225
In: Introduction to Business Analytics using Simulation, S. 371-418
In: Wiley and SAS Business Series
An updated new edition of the comprehensive guide to better business forecasting Many companies still look at quantitative forecasting methods with suspicion, but a new awareness is emerging across many industries as more businesses and professionals recognize the value of integrating demand data (point-of-sale and syndicated scanner data) into the forecasting process. Demand-Driven Forecasting equips you with solutions that can sense, shape, and predict future demand using highly sophisticated methods and tools. From a review of the most basic forecasting methods to the most a
SSRN
In: Defense intelligence journal: a publication of the Defense Intelligence College Foundation, Band 3, S. 3-103
ISSN: 1061-6845
SSRN
In: International journal / Canadian Institute of International Affairs, Band 62, Heft 2, S. 279-290
ISSN: 0020-7020
Discusses the juxtaposition of fate & will that was the topic of a series of seven radio lectures delivered by James Eayrs in 1966 & 1967. Fate limits human action while will directs action & supplies resolve; however, pursuing a purpose in the presence of fate requires the ability to foresee & evaluate. Eayrs's notion of informed action is examined, along with the need for policymakers to recognize what is alterable & subject to policy intervention & what is not. This recognition requires good intelligence capable of identifying likely events. Special attention is given to the "pervasive contingency" & "emergent property" that arises with complexity in the international system & is the result of multiple relationships among states. An examination of predictive accuracy, constructivism; & power transition theory notes that, although they make different basic assumptions about the sources of state action, they all maintain that states behave rationally. Poliheuristic theory, a current model of foreign policy decision-making that involves both heuristics & predictive utility, is explored. J. Lindroth