Scenario planning: a strategic alternative; challenging managers to look ahead
In: Public management: PM, Band 77, S. 4-8
ISSN: 0033-3611
In: Public management: PM, Band 77, S. 4-8
ISSN: 0033-3611
In: Journal of policy modeling: JPMOD ; a social science forum of world issues, Band 16, Heft 2, S. 215-232
ISSN: 0161-8938
In: Futuribles: l'anticipation au service de l'action ; revue bimestrielle, Heft 186, S. 73-82
ISSN: 0183-701X, 0337-307X
In: International journal of public opinion research, Band 5, Heft 2, S. 185-192
ISSN: 0954-2892
South Africa is going through a period of intense & accelerating change, which is creating considerable anxiety. In many ways the South African situation parallels events in Eastern Europe, where new structures have started to replace the old order. Here, using a new method of reviewing previous data & projecting it to the year 2000, a summary is given of recent value shifts in South African society & the changes that are likely to occur during the coming decade. Predictions are also made of the extent to which blacks will participate in the economy. 4 Tables, 1 Figure, 14 References. Adapted from the source document.
In: The annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Band 522, S. 12-24
ISSN: 0002-7162
Presented is an overview of the origins & recent developments in future studies. It is suggested that lack of imagination, coupled with inadequately examined assumptions, is responsible for the failure of many forecasts. Several key trends for the future of the world & of the US are identified, including: a greater equality for women that will have powerful effects on education, population growth, & world governance; changing relationships between nations as a result of globalization that will lead to new forms of international alliances; the emergence of population growth as a central problem confronting all nations; & development in information technology that will facilitate the global dissemination of information, but will also reveal to the world's poor what they lack in relation to the rich. 1 Figure. Adapted from the source document.
In: The annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Band 510, S. 73-86
ISSN: 0002-7162
The 1970s & 1980s fertility decline in the People's Republic of China is explored to forecast a scenario for the 1990s. In 1970, most projections for 1990 forecast a population of 1.3 billion. However, this figure proved too high due to China's successful population control measures. A broad view of the sustained fertility decline is needed that can encompass more than the conventional theories of birth planning, modernization, & community change. Here, the larger socioeconomic & sociopolitical realities of fertility policies are analyzed in relation to China's transition to socialism in the 1950s. Both explicit fertility policies ("later-longer-fewer" & "one-child") & implicit policies (economic & political) which altered the economics of childbearing & the politics of fertility decision making, interacted to create the fertility decline. It is predicted that fertility in the 1990s will be shaped by policy developments regarding birth planning & the rural economy. 1 Figure. C. Grindle
In: Silberburg Wissenschaft 282
In: Politik
These dieser Arbeit ist, daß eine Perspektive für die Hochschulen im gesellschaftlichen Forschungsverbund nur auf der Grundlage einer eindeutigen Profilbildung im Dienste eines Wissenschaftsverständnisses, das an sozialen und ökologischen Zukunftsproblemen orientiert ist, zu erreichen sein wird. Mit diesem Buch wird ein Vorschlag für eine alternative Entwicklungsvariante unterbreitet. Inhalt: 1. Hochschulnotstand als Befund: Zur aktuellen Lage im bundesdeutschen Hochschulsektor 2. Die Krise der Hochschule als historisch fortschreitender Prozeß der Vergesellschaftung des Hochschulsektors 3. Rekonstruktion und Reform - zum Vergesellschaftungskonzept der Reformphase in den 60er - 70er Jahren 4. Aktuelle Entwicklungsmerkmale im Hochschulbereich 5. Bedeutungszuwachs als Perspektive? Abschließende Bemerkungen zu Problemen und Perspektiven im Hochschulwesen. (PHF/übern.)
In: Voprosy filosofii: naučno-teoretičeskij žurnal, Band 40, Heft 5, S. 23-35
ISSN: 0042-8744
In: Public opinion quarterly: journal of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Band 50, S. 331-339
ISSN: 0033-362X
1980 U.S. election; based on conference paper.
In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity ; the journal of the Society of Policy Scientists, Band 18, S. 227-240
ISSN: 0032-2687
US policy, chiefly; also draws on the experience of other nations, particularly Japan. Uses earthquake prediction as an example of policy formulation in a case where new, unrefined technology must be used.
In: American politics quarterly, Band 11, S. 349-364
ISSN: 0044-7803
In: Public opinion quarterly: journal of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Band 32, S. 251-260
ISSN: 0033-362X
In: Social research: an international quarterly, Band 26, Heft 3, S. 347-366
ISSN: 0037-783X
In: STI Review, Heft 17, S. 71-99
SSRN