Suchergebnisse

Based on BPS data in 2019, around 90% of Indonesians consume rice as the main product of their carbohydrate needs. With the fourth most populous country in the world, Indonesia's rice consumption in 2021 will reach 31.50 million tons. Indonesia's rice production is currently not able to supply the needs of domestic rice consumption. Therefore, the Indonesian government chose to import rice for supply the needs of domestic rice consumption. Forecasting method can help the government to reduce uncertainty about the future of rice productivity. This research will discuss the comparison of the forecasting results of fuzzy timeseries using chen and cheng models in forecasting rice productivity in Indonesia. The comparison based on the percentage of eror or in this research the MAPE value is used as an indicator. The MAPE value obtained using chen model is 18% and using cheng model is 12%. The result of data analysis found that the MAPE value using cheng model is smaller than using chen model. It means that the cheng model is more appropriate used in forecasting data of Indonesia productivity rice. However the chen and cheng models both give good forecasting result because the MAPE value is less than 20%

Планирование, прогнозирование, прогноз, план, стратегия, стратегическое планирование, социально-экономическое развитие, стратегия социально-экономического развития москвы ; The article deals with the concept of «planning» and «forecasting», principles of planned economy in the Soviet period, learn about the legislative regulation system planning and forecasting of socio-economic development in the Russian Federation, as well as analysis of the strategy of socio-economic development of Moscow for the period up to 2025

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- About the Author -- Introduction -- The Political Perspective -- Notes -- Chapter 1 Understanding the Key Building Blocks of Progress -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Key Building Blocks of Data Science and AI -- 1.2.1 Data Acquisition -- 1.2.2 Data Maintenance -- 1.2.3 Analysis -- 1.2.4 Communication -- 1.2.5 Machine Learning -- 1.2.6 Artificial Intelligence -- 1.2.7 Advantages and Disadvantages -- 1.2.8 Four Key Focuses for Future AI -- 1.3 Quantum Computing -- 1.3.1 What Is Quantum Computing? -- 1.3.2 Impact on Cybersecurity -- 1.4 Proliferation of Devices -- 1.5 5G and the Impact of Advanced Communications -- 1.5.1 Global Transformation -- 1.6 Public Sectors 4.0 -- 1.7 Conclusion -- 1.8 Notes -- Chapter 2 Office of Finance -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Forecasting and Public Finance Management -- 2.3 Forecasting -- 2.3.1 Qualitative Forecasting -- 2.3.2 Quantitative Forecasting -- 2.3.3 Forecasting for Public Sector Transformation -- 2.3.4 Managing Risk and Uncertainty -- 2.3.5 Forecasting in IT Projects -- 2.3.6 The Move Toward Activity-Based Costing -- 2.3.7 Hard Benefits and Soft Benefits -- 2.3.8 Enterprise Resource Planning -- 2.3.9 AI and Governmental Administration -- 2.3.10 Global Partnership on AI -- 2.4 Conclusion -- 2.5 Notes -- Chapter 3 Public Order and Safety -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 The Future of Policing in an AI Era -- 3.2.1 Transformation of Police Work -- 3.2.2 Criminal Use of AI -- 3.2.3 Police Use of New Technologies -- 3.2.4 Case Studies in Policing -- 3.2.5 Policing in China -- 3.2.6 Forward-Looking Policing -- 3.3 AI in Policing -- 3.3.1 Impact on Police Behavior -- 3.4 The Citizen as a Key Component of Future Policing -- 3.5 Police and Location Analytics -- 3.6 Policing Summary -- 3.7 Border Security and AI -- 3.8 Customs Reform.

Прогнозирование срочной структуры процентных ставок является достаточно сложной задачей. Опыт показывает, что лишь немногие из предложенных в литературе моделей позволяют обеспечить существенно лучшую точность прогнозирования, чем простое случайное блуждание. Данная работа посвящена сравнению точности результатов прогнозирования срочной структуры процентных ставок для различных спецификаций эконометрических моделей, по российским данным за 2004-2014 гг. Модели. Для прогнозирования использовались следующие варианты формулировки эконометрических моделей: случайное блуждание, авторегрессия, авторегрессия главных компонент, обобщенные динамические модели Диболда Ли. Результаты. Сравнение по данным российского рынка государственных облигаций за период 2004-2014 гг. показало, что модели авторегрессии лучше подходят для прогнозирования краткосрочных ставок, однако динамическая спецификация модели Диболда Ли дает более точные прогнозы для среднесрочных и долгосрочных ставок. ; Forecasting the term structure of interest rates is considered to be the complex problem. The experience shows that just a few models from the proposed in science literature provide us with much better accuracy in forecasting than random walk. This paper is devoted to the comparison of forecasting results' accuracy for the different specifications of econometric models using Russian data for 2004-2014 years. Models. We use the next econometric models for the forecasting: random walk, autoregressive model, factor model, Diebold-Li model. Results. Comparison on the Russian government bond market data for 2004-2014 years shows us that autoregressive models are better for the short-term rates' forecasting, but the dynamic Diebold-Li model gives better accuracy for the mid-term and long-term rates' forecasting.

Створення інтегрованої цивільно-військової системи спостереження повітряного простору потребує розробки нових підходів до автоматизованої оцінки технічного стану зразків радіолокаційних засобів. Обговорюються напрями створення та реалізації автоматизованої системи контролю та прогнозування технічного стану засобів радіолокації радіотехнічних військ. ; Создание интегрированной гражданско-военной системы наблюдения воздушного пространства нуждается в разработке новых подходов к автоматизированной оценке технического состояния образцов радиолокационных средств. Обсуждаются направления создания и реализации автоматизированной системы контроля и прогнозирования технического состояния средств радиолокации радиотехнических войск. ; The creation of the integrated civil and military system of the air-space observation requires the construction of new approaches to the automated evaluation of the radiolocation facilities patterns technical condition. The automated control system construction and realization directions and forecasting of radio-radar troop's radiolocation technical condition of facilities are discussed.

Statistical modeling is vital in planning, forecasting and management in the fields of; Agriculture, Medicine, Engineering, Economics, Finance and many more. Stock market is the secondary capital market which gives investment opportunities to investors and liquidity to firms. Share trading affects all the stake holders; customers of the firms, employees of the firms, the government and society. As such, share trading is an important part of the economy of a country. Share market investments are considered as high risk, high return investments, but the investors are concerned about high return at low risk. Hence forecasting of risk and return are essential for share markets. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is the most commonly used model for forecasting share returns. However, CAPM has been subjected to empirical arguments over the decades. Literature gives enough evidence for the inefficiency of CAPM in forecasting returns. Yet, the Sri Lankan stock market depends on CAPM for forecasting risk and returns of securities. The study was focused to; test existing statistical models for forecasting Sri Lankan stock returns and develop suitable techniques for forecasting risk and returns. Daily closing share price data, monthly sector indices and All Share Price Index data were obtained from Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE). Monthly share returns of a random sample of companies from CSE were used for data analysis. Pattern recognition of returns was the first step of the study. It was found that the Sri Lankan stock returns are stationary type, follow wave like patterns. Then the covariance structure of Sri Lankan stock returns was identified. The central assertion of CAPM; linear relationship between individual company returns and the total market returns were not supported by the analysis, but there was a significant linear relationship between individual company returns and corresponding sector returns. Therefore individual company returns were modeled on sector returns. Thereafter, Auto Regressive Integrated ...

Forecasts of the cyclically-adjusted primary government balance are, potentially, informative as to the stance of future fiscal policies. This is sustained by the fiscal surveillance procedure for Eurozone members since the reformed Stability and Growth Pact of 2005. However, the quality of these forecasts has never been analyzed. We evaluate the properties of the December forecasts of the cyclically-adjusted primary government balance by the OECD for 19 countries. The forecasts for the current year, nowcasts, are reasonably accurate; the quality of the one-year-ahead and the two-year-ahead forecasts deteriorates however sharply when the forecast horizon increases. Despite their poor quality, forecasts are mostly unbiased and efficient and thus rational. Simple alternative forecasts for the cyclically-adjusted primary government balance do not systematically outperform the forecasts by the OECD. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The methodology to approach the field of education depends on the quality analysis and, above all, on its impact on the internal performance of the system and on the evaluation of different development policies. Meanwhile, it is important to take into account the macroeconomic and budgetary aspects that determine and resources available to reinforce the education system and the constraints as well. Hence, this analysis should focus on indicators that are assimilated into a methodological repertoire of several parameters that intentionally affect political decisions. The main objective of this article relies on valuing the use of analyses and econometric techniques in the field of social sciences. In particular for the realization of an analytical study and a forecasting study, in an attempt to measure and evaluate the impact of public financing of elementary education in Morocco and its impact on performance indicators, from a longitudinal perspective of 40 years, covering the period from 1979 to 2018.

The methodology to approach the field of education depends on the quality analysis and, above all, on its impact on the internal performance of the system and on the evaluation of different development policies. Meanwhile, it is important to take into account the macroeconomic and budgetary aspects that determine and resources available to reinforce the education system and the constraints as well. Hence, this analysis should focus on indicators that are assimilated into a methodological repertoire of several parameters that intentionally affect political decisions. The main objective of this article relies on valuing the use of analyses and econometric techniques in the field of social sciences. In particular for the realization of an analytical study and a forecasting study, in an attempt to measure and evaluate the impact of public financing of elementary education in Morocco and its impact on performance indicators, from a longitudinal perspective of 40 years, covering the period from 1979 to 2018.

L'intervista indaga le evoluzioni del mondo della rilevazione demoscopica in un Paese come l'Italia che, negli ultimi anni, ha visto emergere nuovi soggetti politici ed in cui i social network stanno assumendo un valore sempre maggiore. Partendo dalla presunta "morte del sondaggio" e arrivando ad analizzare i nuovi metodi di rilevazione demoscopica offerti dalla rete, Paolo Natale spiega come e perché il sondaggio stesso resta, all'interno del dibattito politico, uno strumento di studio molto rilevante, seppur perfettibile. L'intervista tratta e contestualizza anche gli errori recenti commessi dai sondaggi.The interview analyses the role and efficacy of the political survey in an environment that is facing conspicuous changes, in particular with reference to the role of the social media. Starting from the hypothesis of the death of the survey and discussing new methods to test political opinion and electoral behavior, Natale explains why the survey is still a valuable method and tool to analysis the citizens' preferences. The interview discusses also some recent failures in forecasting the electoral results.

In this paper we develop a comprehensive short-term fiscal forecasting system, useful for real-time monitoring of government's borrowing requirement in Spain, a country that has been at the center of the recent European sovereign debt crisis, not least because of sizeable failures to meet public deficit targets. The system is made of a suite of models, with different levels of disaggregation (bottom-up vs top-down; general government vs sub-sectors) suitable for the automatic processing of the large amount of monthly/quarterly fiscal data published nowadays by Spanish statistical authorities. Our tools are instrumental for ex-ante detection of risks to official projections, and thus can help in reducing the ex-post reputational costs of budgetary deviations. On the basis of our results, we discuss how official monitoring bodies could expand, on the one hand, their toolkit to evaluate regular adherence to targets (moving beyond a legalistic approach) and, on the other, their communication policies as regards sources of risks of (ex-ante) compliance with budgetary targets.

The article is devoted to the analysis of the main development trends and the specifics of the formation of entrepreneurship on the example of the town of Dunaivtsi at the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries. A retrospective analysis of the formation of foreign entrepreneurship in Ukraine was conducted. On the basis of the dialectical method of scientific knowledge, the systematic approach to the study of the processes of the evolution of the domestic economic environment, the importance of foreigners in the development of entrepreneurship during the second half of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries was revealed. in the town of Dunaivtsi, Podilsk province. The needs of production development and modernization of the economy required significant investments. Due to the lack of large private capitals, the government attracted foreign investments, which is why there were many foreigners among the entrepreneurs. This gave impetus to the development of industry in the town of Dunaivtsi at the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries. Representatives of foreign entrepreneurship played a positive role in the industrial transformation of the region's economy. The dominant factor in the development of entrepreneurship and the attraction of foreign specialists was the personal interest of the town's owners. Foreign entrepreneurs contributed to the inflow of capital, the attraction of the latest technologies, advanced management models, and the establishment of business relations with Western European partners. The activity of German colonists was of particular importance for the development of cloth production. Positive transformations were facilitated by legislative norms regulating business activities. The influence of foreigners on the change of the cultural landscape of the town and the formation of a modern social space is revealed. The role of foreign manufacturers in the formation of local chains of processing of local products and the development of foreign economic ties is revealed. The authors argued for the expediency of using historical experience taking into account the current state and problems of the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine's economy.

1.2.7 Caveat augur1.2.8 Worked examples; 1.2.9 Useful Microsoft Excel functions and facilities; 1.2.10 References to authoritative sources; 1.2.11 Chapter reviews; 1.3 Overview of chapters in this volume; 1.4 Elsewhere in the 'Working Guide to Estimating & Forecasting' series; 1.4.1 Volume I: Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling; 1.4.2 Volume II: Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff; 1.4.3 Volume III: Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations; 1.4.4 Volume IV: Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves

AbstractTo assist policymakers in making adequate decisions to stop the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, accurate forecasting of the disease propagation is of paramount importance. This paper presents a deep learning approach to forecast the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases using bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) network applied to multivariate time series. Unlike other forecasting techniques, our proposed approach first groups the countries having similar demographic and socioeconomic aspects and health sector indicators using K-means clustering algorithm. The cumulative case data of the clustered countries enriched with data related to the lockdown measures are fed to the bidirectional LSTM to train the forecasting model. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by studying the disease outbreak in Qatar and the proposed model prediction from December 1st until December 31st, 2020. The quantitative evaluation shows that the proposed technique outperforms state-of-art forecasting approaches.