Africa
In: Strategic survey: the annual assessment of geopolitics, S. 271-302
ISSN: 0459-7230
The path to stability and democracy in Africa faced challenges across the continent in the year to mid-2012. Coups d'etat in Mali and Guinea Bissau were particular reminders of the chronic difficulties faced by African nations, as were the tensions that surrounded electoral processes in countries such as Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Liberia and Zimbabwe. Islamist violence in Nigeria underlined the vulnerability to extremist influences of areas afflicted by poverty and inequality. Also pointing to the region's fragility were the spillover effects in sub-Saharan Africa of unrest in the Arab world, which had toppled three North African regimes in 2011. Among these effects were destabilising flows of returnees, and protests inspired by the Arab uprisings. Overall, events in the 12-month period suggested that, while the continent as a whole has been making significant economic progress, continuation of this positive trend remained vulnerable to political and ethnic disputes, authoritarian governance and in some places to extremism -- as well as to natural disasters such as drought and famine. The brightest development was unexpected progress towards a long-hoped-for political settlement in Somalia, backed by military advances against the al-Shabaab militia group in which several countries participated. Adapted from the source document.