Suchergebnisse

"The International Crisis Behavior Project" published on by Oxford University Press.

Systemism and social mechanisms, as articulated by Bunge, are concepts with great potential for application to assessment of research progress. This study will use the conceptual tools made available by systemism and social mechanisms to evaluate the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project as a scientific effort toward the greater understanding of crises in world politics. Systemism and social mechanisms are articulated as key concepts in the quest for scientific progress. The goals and basic characteristics of the ICB Project as a scientific venture then are described. The ICB Project is assessed in terms of how well it lives up to standards for scientific progress. Finally, conclusions and ideas about future research are presented. The basic finding of this study is that the ICB Project is quite successful in meeting the standards for scientific progress entailed by the concepts of systemism and social mechanisms.

"International Crises Interrogated: Modeling the Escalation Process with Quantitative Methods" published on by Oxford University Press.

14 slides.-- Presentation showed at the Final Workshop FLEDGED Project: flexible Sorption Enhanced processes for biomass to DME conversion, 27-28-29 October 2020. ; Assess the performance of the Sorption Enhanced Gasification process in a 30 kWth bubbling fluidized bed reactor (BFB) placed at the Instituto de Carboquímica (CSIC) (Zaragoza, Spain). ; This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 727600. ; Peer reviewed

O objetivo deste trabalho foi comparar os três padrões tradicionais de gerenciamento de projetos, no caso, Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), Competence Baseline (ICB - IPMA) e Projects In Controlled Environments (PRINCE2), e verificar se os padrões deverão ser utilizados separadamente ou poderão ser utilizados em conjunto. Mostrou-se os conceitos do PMBOK, suas dez áreas de conhecimentos (Riscos, Recursos humanos, Escopo, Custo, Qualidade, Partes interessadas, Tempo, Integração, Comunicação, Aquisições), seus cinco grupos de processos (Iniciação, Planejamento, Execução, Monitoramento e controle e Encerramento) e seus 47 processos. Apresentou-se o ICB, o olho da competência, as três competências (Técnicas, Comportamentais e Contextuais) e seus 46 elementos. Descreveram-se os sete princípios do PRINCE2 (Justificativa de negócio, Aprender a partir da experiência, Papéis e Responsabilidades, Gerenciamento por estágios, Gerenciamento por exceção, Foco no produto), os sete temas (Business Case, Organização, Qualidade, Plano, Risco, Mudança, Progresso), e seus sete processos. Compararam-se os três padrões e dessa comparação concluiu-se que os três padrões podem ser utilizados de acordo com o entendimento do gerente do projeto, podendo usá-los de forma complementar.

This study uses a visualization technique, systemism, to integrate ICB Project findings about crisis, escalation and war in particular. The domain of the analysis, 1999–2017, is the period following the authoritative review of research in Michael Brecher (1999; International studies in the twentieth century and beyond: Flawed dichotomies, syntheses, cumulation, International Studies Quarterly 43: 213–264) up to the present. Systemism is used to combine, in graphic form, substantively significant results from ICB Project research. Insights about cause and effect for escalation processes are obtained that would not readily be available in the absence of graphic representation. This learning is made possible through application of systemism, a visualization technique, to convey a network of variables leading into war.

[ES] El presente Trabajo Fin de Máster tiene como objetivo analizar el área de Gestión de riesgos de la dirección de proyectos considerando y comparando los principales estándares y metodologías para la Dirección y Gestión de Proyectos, como son el Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBoK) del Project Management Institute, PRojects IN Controlled Environments 2 (PRINCE2) de la Office of Government Commerce (OGC-UK), el Open Project Management Methodology (PM2) de la Comisión Europea, la Individual Competence Baseline (ICB 4) de la International Project Management Association (IPMA) y Project Risk Analysis and Management (PRAM) de la Association for Project Management (APM-UK) Para ello se hará una revisión bibliográfica de los marcos de referencia anteriormente mencionados, centrando la atención en los procesos de gestión de riesgos, analizando las etapas de dichos procesos, las herramientas de análisis de riesgo y las estrategias de gestión de riesgo propuestas. Tras la revisión teórica es necesario realizar una comparación de la aplicación de estos enfoques. Para ello se ha decidido elegir como caso de estudio un proyecto del que se dispusiera abundante información y de envergadura suficiente para sufrir riesgos de diferente origen y tipología, seleccionando el Proyecto de Diseño y Construcción del Tercer Juego de Esclusas, perteneciente al Programa de Ampliación del Canal de Panamá. Por tanto, se ha realizado un plan de gestión del riesgo para dicho proyecto, utilizando los diferentes estándares y metodologías considerados y seguidamente se ha elaborado como conclusión un análisis comparativo de las analogías y diferencias, beneficios, carencias y limitaciones de cada uno de los enfoques. ; [EN] The main goal of the current thesis is to analyse the Risk Management of Project Management considering and comparing the main standards and methodologies in Project Management, such as Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBoK) by Project Management Institute, PRojects IN Controlled Environments 2 (PRINCE2) by ...

The Ellison Model Executive Mentoring Inclusive Community Building Model (The Ellison Model) is used in training people to initiate and implement inclusive community building (ICB) projects using executives and professionals from a variety of fields and industries to mentor university and pre-college students, all serving as mentors at each succeeding level of function. The model promotes ethical values and inclusion in community development. Participants at ICB conferences receive conflict resolution, relationship management and cultural sensitivity/diversity training through interactive and dramatic techniques. This essay examines the theoretical premises upon which The Model bases its philosophies. Theories examining the nexus between culture and conflict are also explored. Conflict resolution as a unitary process (from the individual perspective) is also discussed within the context of relationship management.

An essential, but often overlooked, role of concepts lies in how they constitute or define populations. Explicit choices made by researchers about concept structure are tied inextricably to the selection rule for identifying cases to include in analyses. Concept construction issues are absolutely crucial because the concept structure used interacts in various, usually hidden, ways with theories & hypotheses that researchers want to test. The concepts used to select cases may be correlated with common dependent variables hence producing selection bias. We illustrate this potential by exploring international crises as they have been conceptualized by the ICB Project. We show that two alternative conceptualizations of "crisis" produce populations that correlate with common ICB dependent variables. Our empirical analyses pay particular attention to variables related to power because they are particularly susceptible to being influenced by these selection effects. 4 Tables, 1 Figure, 44 References. Adapted from the source document.

Crisis escalation to war is a subject of longstanding interest. Case studies, formal models and statistical analysis offer compelling explanations for why some crises escalate to war while others do not. Much less can be said in answer to the following question: where do crises come from in the first place? In this paper, we first introduce the concept of a near crisis following the approach taken over the course of more than four decades by the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. A near crisis is just below a crisis as defined by ICB with regard to intensity, as it lacks one essential condition for a crisis—higher likelihood of military hostilities. Second, we present a newly developed dataset that contains information on 86 cases in which actors perceived a threat to one or more basic values, along with an awareness of finite time for response to the value threat. We also present simple statistical models comparing (a) near crisis to crisis and (b) crisis to war that show that analyses based on the Near Crisis dataset will contribute to advancement of knowledge.

Crisis escalation to war is a subject of longstanding interest. Case studies, formal models and statistical analysis offer compelling explanations for why some crises escalate to war while others do not. Much less can be said in answer to the following question: where do crises come from in the first place? In this paper, we first introduce the concept of a near crisis following the approach taken over the course of more than four decades by the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. A near crisis is just below a crisis as defined by ICB with regard to intensity, as it lacks one essential condition for a crisis—higher likelihood of military hostilities. Second, we present a newly developed dataset that contains information on 86 cases in which actors perceived a threat to one or more basic values, along with an awareness of finite time for response to the value threat. We also present simple statistical models comparing (a) near crisis to crisis and (b) crisis to war that show that analyses based on the Near Crisis dataset will contribute to advancement of knowledge.

This study reports the results of a project to construct dyadic-level data from the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) project data collection. The project defines coding rules used in identifying crisis dyads and applies them to identify 766 crisis dyads for the period from 1918 to 1994. This research makes it possible to perform a careful comparison of crisis dyads to dyads involved in militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). The comparison indicates that conflicts that qualify as both a MID and a crisis are significantly more severe than conflicts that do not pass both thresholds. The study offers a robustness analysis of Russett and Oneal's Triangulating Peace (2001) and finds that two of the three Kantian variables theorized to inhibit conflict involvement maintain a relationship similar to the onset of international crises as they do for MIDs. The analysis indicates that economic interdependence is a somewhat weaker inhibitor of crises than MIDs.

Underlying the emerging interest in the role of rivalry processes as antecedents to interstate conflict is the simple idea that conflict within the constraints of rivalry works differently than conflict outside of rivalry. In this article, we inspect the concepts of protracted conflict, as developed within the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) project, and rivalry, and discuss some of their applications to crisis escalation. The protracted conflict and rivalry concepts are not identical, but they do overlap in terms of their emphases on historical context, serious goal incompatibilities, and stakes that might be resolved coercively. Developing an argument for the concept of rivalry possessing fewer limitations than protracted conflict, we proceed to analyze and test the interaction between rivalry and other variables, again making use of an ICB escalation model, when predicting crisis escalation to war. Throughout, our basic question concerns what role interstate rivalry plays in crisis behavior. Are the crises of rivals more lethal than those of non-rivals? If so, can we pinpoint why that is the case? We find that rivalry not only makes escalation more likely, but also significantly interacts with more traditional predictors of conflict, such as capability ratios, the number of actors in a crisis, democracy, and the issues under contention.