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Cover -- TABLE DES MATIÈRES -- CONTEXTE -- ÉVOLUTION RECENTE, PERSPECTIVES ET RISQUES -- ENTRETIENS -- A. Politique budgétaire pour la fin de l'année 2019 -- B. Réforme des administrations fiscale et douanière -- C. Renforcer l'efficience des dépenses publiques et améliorer la gestion des finances publiques -- D. Autres réformes structurelles -- E. Renforcement des capacités -- MODALITES DU PROGRAMME -- ÉVALUATION PAR LES SERVICES DU FMI -- ENCADRES -- 1. Le nouveau Cadre stratégique pour la relance économique et le développement durable (CREDD) -- 2. Situation financière d'EDM-SA -- 3. Mobilisation des recettes fiscales, investissements publics et croissance du PIB -- 4. Mali : Matrice d'évaluation des risques -- 5. Stratégie envisagée par la Banque mondiale pour EDM SA -- GRAPHIQUES -- 1. Mali: Macroeconomic Developments, 2014-21 -- 2. Mali: Fiscal Developments, 2014-21 -- TABLEAUX -- 1. Mali: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2016-23 -- 2. Mali: National Accounts, 2016-23 -- 3. Mali: Monetary Survey, 2015-20 -- 4. Mali: Balance of Payments, 2015-23 -- 5. Mali: Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2015-19 -- 6a. Mali: Consolidated Fiscal Transactions of the Government, 2017-23 (Billions of CFAF) -- 6b. Mali: Consolidated Fiscal Transactions of the Government, 2017-23 (Percent of GDP) -- 6c. Mali: Central Government Consolidated Financial Operations, 2019 -- 7. Mali: External Financing Requirements, 2018-2023 -- 8. Mali: Proposed Schedule of Disbursements Under Three-year ECF Accord, 2019-22 -- 9. Mali: Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2019-33 -- ANNEXES -- I. External Sector Assessment for Mali -- II. Capacity Building Framework Strategy -- III. Economic Impact of the Fragile Security Situation in -- APPENDICES -- Appendix I. Letter of Intent -- Attachment I. Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- Glossary -- THE COST OF INSECURITY -- A. A Fragile State -- B. The Context of the 2012 crisis -- C. Impact of the Crisis -- FIGURES -- 1. Sequence of Important Events -- 2. Consolidated Public Sector Deficit, -- 3. Security Spending, 2010-17 -- 4. Real GDP Growth, 2011-22 -- 5. Real Sectoral GDP Growth, 2011-22 -- 6. Distribution of Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons -- References -- TAX REVENUE MOBILIZATION IN MALI -- A. Background and Recent Developments -- B. Benchmarking of Mali's Revenue Performance -- C. Estimating Potential Tax Revenue -- D. Conclusion and Main Recommendations -- BOX -- 1. Stochastic Frontier Analysis -- FIGURES -- 1. Tax Revenue and GDP Growth -- 2. Tax Revenue in Mali (percent of GDP) -- 3. WAEMU: Evolution of Total Tax Revenue -- 4. Tax Revenue Collection and Budget -- 5. Tax Revenue and Income Level in Low-Income Countries -- 6. Mali's Total Tax Revenue and Sub-categories with Comparators -- 7. CIT and VAT Rates in Mali and Other WAEMU Countries, 2013-16 -- 8. Income and VAT Productivity in Mali and Other WAEMU Countries, 2013-16 -- 9. Tax Performance in Mali and Predicted Values Relative to WAEMU Countries -- 10. Efficiency in Mali by Category -- ANNEXES -- I. Determinants of Tax Potential in Mali -- II. Mali's Tax Gap Indicators -- References -- PROFIT-SHIFTING IN MALI: RISKS AND POLICY RESPONSES -- A. Introduction -- B. Mali's International Tax System -- C. Exposure To Tax Avoidance -- D. Strengthening Transfer Pricing Rules -- BOXES -- 1. Key Features of the Malian Corporate Income Tax -- 2. An Example of Profit Shifting Through Excessive Interest Deductions -- FIGURES -- 1. World Gold Reserves -- 2. Share of the Mining Sector in Mali's Exports, Revenue and GDP -- THE EXPENDITURE SIDE: MAKING PUBLIC INVESTMENT MORE EFFICIENT -- A. Introduction.

Cover -- TABLE OF CONTENTS -- ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS -- PREFACE -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- I. PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN MALI: CONTEXT -- A. Patterns of Public Investment and Fixed Capital Stock -- B. Quality, Efficiency, and Impact of Public Investment -- II. PUBLIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT -- A. Pillar I: Planning -- B. Pillar II: Allocating -- C. Pillar III. Implementing -- D. Cross-Cutting Issues and Capacities -- III. RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN -- BOXES -- 1. Public Investment Management Assessment Framework (PIMA) -- 2. Definition of Payment Arrears on Capital Expenditure -- 3. Players Involved in Execution Processes -- FIGURES -- 1. Mali and Comparable Countries: Institutional Framework for Public Investment Management -- 2. Institutional Framework and its Effectiveness -- 3. Total, Public, and Private Investment -- 4. Public Investment and GDP Growth -- 5. Financing Sources for Capital Expenditure (billions of CFAF) -- 6. Share of Capital Expenditure in the Budget (percentage of GDP) -- 7. Stock of Public Capital and Public Debt -- 8. Stock of Public Capital Stock Per Capita (2015) -- 9. Indicators of Access to Public Infrastructures -- 10. Perception of the Quality of Infrastructures -- 11. Efficiency Threshold (hybrid indicator) -- 12. Efficiency Indicator (PIE-X) -- 13. Efficiency Indicator (PIE-X), Quality Component -- 14. Efficiency Indicator (PIE-X), Physical Component -- 15. Comparative Developments in Public Debt and Capital Expenditure -- 16. Composition of Investment Resources in Local Governments -- 17. Share of Operating and Capital Expenditure in Local Budgets -- 18. Stock of Capital in Connection with PPPs in Mali as Compared with Other Countries of Francophone Africa -- 19. Distribution of Capital Expenditure, 2015-2017 -- 20. Composition of the Special Capital Budget with Domestic Financing, 2017

This paper reviews Maliâ??s 2012â??2017 Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper. Maliâ??s GDP was CFAF 1,741.89 billion in 2012; real growth was ?1.2 percent, that is, excluding inflation (2.7 percent in 2011). The decline of 3.9 points in growth between 2011 and 2012 was finally stemmed, despite the major shocks that Mali had to face in 2012. The dual security and institutional shock had a negative impact on the entire economy, and more particularly on certain subsectors such as construction and public works, the hotel industry, and commerce. The GDP growth rate was ?1.2 percent in 2012

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, OUTLOOK, AND RISKS -- POLICY DISCUSSIONS -- A. Fiscal Policy for the Rest of 2019 -- B. Tax and Customs Reforms -- C. Enhancing Spending Efficiency and Improving PFM -- D. Other Structural Reforms -- E. Capacity Development -- PROGRAM MODALITIES -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. New Strategic Framework for Economic Recovery and Sustainable Development (CREDD) -- 2. The Financial Situation of EDM-SA -- 3. Revenue Mobilization, Public Investment, and GDP Growth -- 4. Risk Assessment Matrix -- 5. World Bank's EDM-SA Envisaged Strategy -- FIGURES -- 1. Macroeconomic Developments, 2014-21 -- 2. Fiscal Developments, 2014-21 -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2016-23 -- 2. National Accounts, 2016-23 -- 3. Monetary Survey, 2015-20 -- 4. Balance of Payments, 2016-23 -- 5. Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2015-19 -- 6a. Consolidated Fiscal Transactions of the Government, 2017-23 (Billions of CFAF) -- 6b. Consolidated Fiscal Transactions of the Government, 2017-23 (Percent of GDP) -- 6c. Central Government Consolidated Financial Operations, 2019 -- 7. External Financing Requirements, 2018-2023 -- 8. Proposed Schedule of Disbursements Under Three-year ECF Arrangement, 2019-22 -- 9. Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2019-33 -- ANNEXES -- I. External Sector Assessment for Mali -- II. Capacity Building Framework Strategy -- III. Economic Impact of the Fragile Security Situation in Mali -- APPENDICES -- Appendix I. Letter of Intent -- Attachment I. Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies -- Attachment II. Technical Memorandum of Understanding.

In spite of the implementation of measures to strengthen public financial management during the last quarter of 2014, the performance criteria (PC) for end-2014 relating to gross tax revenue and bank and market financing of the government were not met owing to administrative weaknesses at the customs administration and a conflict with importers. However, following the increase in oil product taxation and steps to implement results-based management at the tax and customs administration, tax revenue was back on track at end-March 2015

Cover -- CONTENTS -- BACKGROUND AND PROGRAM PERFORMANCE -- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- A. Recent Developments -- B. Outlook -- C. Risks -- POLICY DISCUSSIONS -- A. Addressing Recent Revenue Shortfalls -- B. Preserving Fiscal Sustainability and Controlling Fiscal Risks -- C. Deepening Structural Reforms to Promote the Private Sector and Inclusive Growth -- D. Improving Governance and Reducing Corruption -- PROGRAM AND OTHER ISSUES -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. EDM's Difficult Financial Situation -- 2. Fiscal Risks -- 3. Fuel Pricing Mechanism in the Context of Increasing International Fuel Prices -- FIGURES -- 1. Macroeconomic Developments, 2011-19 -- 2. Fiscal Developments, 2005-19 -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2013-23 -- 2. National Accounts, 2012-18 -- 3. Consolidated Fiscal Transactions of the Government, 2013-23 (Billions of CFA francs) -- 4. Consolidated Fiscal Transactions of the Government, 2018 (Billions of CFA francs) -- 5. Consolidated Fiscal Transactions of the Government, 2013-23 (Percent of GDP) -- 5. Consolidated Fiscal Transactions of the Government, 2013-23 -- 6. Balance of Payments, 2013-23 -- 7. Monetary Survey, 2013-19 -- 8. Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2009-18 -- 9. Schedule of Disbursements Under the ECF Arrangement, 2013-18 -- 10. Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2018-27 -- 11. Performance Criteria and Indicators for 2018 -- 12. Summary of External Borrowing Program -- 13. Proposed Structural Benchmarks for 2018 -- APPENDIX -- I. Letter of Intent

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT: FRAGILITY AND SECURITY CHALLENGES -- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION -- A. Recent Developments -- B. Performance under the Program -- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- POLICY DISCUSSIONS -- A. Near-Term Challenge: Preserving Macroeconomic Stability in an Election Year with Security Challenges and Lower External Financing -- B. Medium-Term Challenge 1: Creating Fiscal Space -- C. Medium-Term Challenge 2: Promoting Sustainable Growth and Competitiveness -- D. Medium-Term Challenge 3: Strengthening Financial Sector Development and its Contribution to Growth -- E. Medium-Term Challenge 4: Enhancing Economic Governance and Fighting Corruption -- PROGRAM ISSUES -- OTHER ISSUES -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- A. Introduction -- B. Economic Developments in 2017 and Prospects for 2018 -- C. Performance compared to ECF-supported policies -- D. Technical assistance and capacity building -- E. Program Monitoring -- A. Definitions -- B. Performance criteria -- C. Indicative Targets -- D. Structural Benchmarks -- BOXES -- 1. Insecurity and Fragility -- 2. External Sector Assessment -- 3. Developments in Mineral Taxation -- 4. International Taxation -- 5. The Efficiency of Public Investment -- 6. The Electricity Sector -- FIGURES -- 1. Government Spending and Economic Classification -- 2. Macroeconomic Developments, 2011-19 -- 3. Fiscal Developments, 2010-18 -- 4. Social and Development Indicators -- 5. Growth Performance -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2013-23 -- 2. National Accounts, 2012-17 -- 3. Consolidated Fiscal Transactions of the Government, 2013-23 (Billions of CFA francs) -- 4. Consolidated Fiscal Transactions of the Government, 2017 (Billions of CFA francs) -- 5. Consolidated Fiscal Transactions of the Government, 2013-23 (Percent of GDP).

Cover -- CONTENTS -- BACKGROUND, RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, AND OUTLOOK -- PROGRAM PERFORMANCE -- POLICY DISCUSSIONS -- A. Fiscal Policy and Reforms -- B. Debt Sustainability -- C. Financial Sector Issues -- D. Other Structural Reforms and Issues -- E. Technical Assistance and Capacity Building -- PROGRAM ISSUES -- STAFF APRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Recent Revenue Performance -- 2. Reforming the Mechanism of Domestic Fuel Price Setting -- FIGURES -- 1. Macroeconomic Developments, 2011-19 -- 2. Fiscal Developments, 2010-17 -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2013-21 -- 2. National Accounts, 2012-16 -- 3. Consolidated Fiscal Transactions of the Government, 2013-21 (in billions of CFAF) -- 4. Central Government Consolidated Financial Operations, 2016 (in billions of CFAF) -- 5. Consolidated Fiscal Transactions of the Government, 2013-21 (percent of GDP) -- 6. Central Government Consolidated Financial Operations, 2017 (in billions of CFAF) -- 7. Balance of Payments, 2013-21 -- 8. Monetary Survey, 2013-21 -- 9. Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2009-15 -- 10. Schedule of Disbursements Under the ECF Arrangements, 2013-17 -- 11. Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2015-22 -- APPENDIX -- I. Letter of Intent -- Attachment I. Memorandum on Economic and Financial Policies -- Attachment II. Technical Memorandum of Understanding.

Cover -- Table of Contents -- ACRONYMS -- PREFACE -- SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS -- I. REVIEW OF DECENTRALIZATION IN MALI -- A. Institutional Anchoring of Decentralization in Mali -- B. Tight Control over Local Governments' Freedom of Administration -- C. Insufficient Decentralized Resources -- II. APPROPRIATE SCOPE AND OBJECTIVE OF FINANCIAL DECENTRALIZATION -- A. Local Government Financial Needs to Fulfill Their Responsibilities -- B. Revenues Available in the Regions -- C. Threshold for Triggering a Development Dynamic -- III. APPROPRIATE APPROACH AND LEVELS OF FINANCIAL DECENTRALIZATION -- A. Protecting the Stability of the Macro fiscal Framework -- B. Optimizing Own Resources -- C. Ensuring a Just and Transparent Allocation of Transfers to Local Governments -- D. Regionalization: A Priority -- E. Conclusions and Recommendations -- IV. BEST FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION APPROACH FOR ENSURING LOCAL GOOD GOVERNANCE -- A. Review of Local Governance in Mali and its Risks -- B. Necessary Consolidation of the Local Civil Service -- C. Establish a Framework Favorable to Good Fiscal and Financial Governance -- D. Introducing an Accountability Framework -- E. Conclusions and Recommendations -- BOXES -- 1. The Legal Framework for Decentralization -- 2. Regionalization: a New Phase in Decentralization in Mali -- 3. Approach Based on Responsibilities - Limitations and Caveats -- 4. Revenue-Based Approach - Limitations and Caveat -- 5. Decentralization Threshold - Limitations and Caveat -- 6. Assumptions Underlying the Calculation of the Cost of Financial Decentralization -- 7. Areas for Improvement of Local Taxation -- 8. Optimization of Own Resources Will Not Cover Needs -- 9. ANICT Mechanism for the Allocation of Capital Grants -- 10. Levels of Decentralization in the WAEMU Countries -- 11. Central Government-Region Value-for-Performance Contracts -- CHARTS.

PREFACEAt the request of the Malian Ministry of Finance, a technical assistance mission visited Bamakoduring August 12?21, 2013. The purpose of the mission was to identify issues and options thatneed to be considered when adopting an automatic petroleum product pricing mechanism. Themission was led by Mr. Mark De Broeck and also comprised Mr. Kangni Roland Kpdodar(both from the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department).The mission met with Mr. Mamadou Traoré, Minister of Economy and Humanitarian Action,Mr. Abdel Karim Konaté, Minister of Finances, Mr. Makan Tounkara, Minister of Energy andWater, Mr. Ib