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Lietuvos agrarinio sektoriaus veiklos rezultatų prognozės ; Lithuanian agrarian sector profit activity results forecast
Profitable agricultural activity provides a stable self-sufficiency with agricultural and food products. Positive structural production changes have been reached in the Lithuanian agrarian sector while implementing EU common agricultural policy measures. However, due to both external and internal factors influence differences, profitability of separate agricultural branches and products vary a lot and may have a negative impact on the rational agricultural production changes. The aim of the research is to provide the rational decisions of profitability increase in agrarian sector using mathematical model. The tasks of the research are: to perform comparative analysis of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector; to prepare mathematical model for agrarian sector profit forecasting and formulate assumptions for the model application; to evaluate factors influencing agrarian sector profit and provide their forecast up to the year 2013. Results of the research: evaluation of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector economic indicators show that Lithuanian agrarian sector, having unequal level of competitive abilities, stands behind. Therefore it is necessary to use efficiently available external (support, prices) and internal (costs) reserves. Mathematical model has been prepared for agrarian sector profit and its scenarios forecasting, in consideration with different assumptions (actual and normative production costs, different direct payments levels) up to the year 2013. Forecasting results and scenario analysis show that optimization of production costs leads to higher profit, prices and direct payments increase profitability of the agricultural production at different level. Recommendations for the sustainable development of agricultural sector and policy measures improvements are proposed.
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Lietuvos agrarinio sektoriaus veiklos rezultatų prognozės ; Lithuanian agrarian sector profit activity results forecast
Profitable agricultural activity provides a stable self-sufficiency with agricultural and food products. Positive structural production changes have been reached in the Lithuanian agrarian sector while implementing EU common agricultural policy measures. However, due to both external and internal factors influence differences, profitability of separate agricultural branches and products vary a lot and may have a negative impact on the rational agricultural production changes. The aim of the research is to provide the rational decisions of profitability increase in agrarian sector using mathematical model. The tasks of the research are: to perform comparative analysis of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector; to prepare mathematical model for agrarian sector profit forecasting and formulate assumptions for the model application; to evaluate factors influencing agrarian sector profit and provide their forecast up to the year 2013. Results of the research: evaluation of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector economic indicators show that Lithuanian agrarian sector, having unequal level of competitive abilities, stands behind. Therefore it is necessary to use efficiently available external (support, prices) and internal (costs) reserves. Mathematical model has been prepared for agrarian sector profit and its scenarios forecasting, in consideration with different assumptions (actual and normative production costs, different direct payments levels) up to the year 2013. Forecasting results and scenario analysis show that optimization of production costs leads to higher profit, prices and direct payments increase profitability of the agricultural production at different level. Recommendations for the sustainable development of agricultural sector and policy measures improvements are proposed.
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Lietuvos agrarinio sektoriaus veiklos rezultatų prognozės ; Lithuanian agrarian sector profit activity results forecast
Profitable agricultural activity provides a stable self-sufficiency with agricultural and food products. Positive structural production changes have been reached in the Lithuanian agrarian sector while implementing EU common agricultural policy measures. However, due to both external and internal factors influence differences, profitability of separate agricultural branches and products vary a lot and may have a negative impact on the rational agricultural production changes. The aim of the research is to provide the rational decisions of profitability increase in agrarian sector using mathematical model. The tasks of the research are: to perform comparative analysis of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector; to prepare mathematical model for agrarian sector profit forecasting and formulate assumptions for the model application; to evaluate factors influencing agrarian sector profit and provide their forecast up to the year 2013. Results of the research: evaluation of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector economic indicators show that Lithuanian agrarian sector, having unequal level of competitive abilities, stands behind. Therefore it is necessary to use efficiently available external (support, prices) and internal (costs) reserves. Mathematical model has been prepared for agrarian sector profit and its scenarios forecasting, in consideration with different assumptions (actual and normative production costs, different direct payments levels) up to the year 2013. Forecasting results and scenario analysis show that optimization of production costs leads to higher profit, prices and direct payments increase profitability of the agricultural production at different level. Recommendations for the sustainable development of agricultural sector and policy measures improvements are proposed.
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Lietuvos agrarinio sektoriaus veiklos rezultatų prognozės ; Lithuanian agrarian sector profit activity results forecast
Profitable agricultural activity provides a stable self-sufficiency with agricultural and food products. Positive structural production changes have been reached in the Lithuanian agrarian sector while implementing EU common agricultural policy measures. However, due to both external and internal factors influence differences, profitability of separate agricultural branches and products vary a lot and may have a negative impact on the rational agricultural production changes. The aim of the research is to provide the rational decisions of profitability increase in agrarian sector using mathematical model. The tasks of the research are: to perform comparative analysis of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector; to prepare mathematical model for agrarian sector profit forecasting and formulate assumptions for the model application; to evaluate factors influencing agrarian sector profit and provide their forecast up to the year 2013. Results of the research: evaluation of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector economic indicators show that Lithuanian agrarian sector, having unequal level of competitive abilities, stands behind. Therefore it is necessary to use efficiently available external (support, prices) and internal (costs) reserves. Mathematical model has been prepared for agrarian sector profit and its scenarios forecasting, in consideration with different assumptions (actual and normative production costs, different direct payments levels) up to the year 2013. Forecasting results and scenario analysis show that optimization of production costs leads to higher profit, prices and direct payments increase profitability of the agricultural production at different level. Recommendations for the sustainable development of agricultural sector and policy measures improvements are proposed.
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Mokesčių ir darbo rinkos sąveika
The imposition of labour market policy measures have significant social and economic consequences. Changes in taxes and social contributions can influence labour market processes significantly. The analysed literature displays the conclusions based on mathematical research models that determine the impact of the tax policy on employment and on different segments of labour market. The variety of mathematical methods that is applied to the analysis of the dependence between labour market and taxes is explained by the particuliarity of the object and aim of the research. For the research in the Lithuanian labour market the compatibility of categories in the application of the mathematical models adapted to other countries is needed. In the monograph influence of taxes and social insurance payments on employment, unemployment and policy of labour market is discussed. In the first part mathematical models that are used in EU for quantitative evaluation of relation between labour market and taxes are analyzed. In the second part tax system, its structure, influence of taxes on state finance, their relation with economic and social processes are analyzed. The main tendencies of Lithuanian tax development, the basic factors and their influence on economic and social processes are revealed. In the third part the essential elements of Lithuanian labour market, its role and changes determined by laws of labour market and state regulations are evaluated. In the fourth part econometric model of relation between taxes and social payments is presented. Quantitative relations of these processes are revealed. The monograph is devoted to scientific workers, students, creators of tax and labour policy who are interested in problems of taxes and labour market.
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Mokesčių ir darbo rinkos sąveika
The imposition of labour market policy measures have significant social and economic consequences. Changes in taxes and social contributions can influence labour market processes significantly. The analysed literature displays the conclusions based on mathematical research models that determine the impact of the tax policy on employment and on different segments of labour market. The variety of mathematical methods that is applied to the analysis of the dependence between labour market and taxes is explained by the particuliarity of the object and aim of the research. For the research in the Lithuanian labour market the compatibility of categories in the application of the mathematical models adapted to other countries is needed. In the monograph influence of taxes and social insurance payments on employment, unemployment and policy of labour market is discussed. In the first part mathematical models that are used in EU for quantitative evaluation of relation between labour market and taxes are analyzed. In the second part tax system, its structure, influence of taxes on state finance, their relation with economic and social processes are analyzed. The main tendencies of Lithuanian tax development, the basic factors and their influence on economic and social processes are revealed. In the third part the essential elements of Lithuanian labour market, its role and changes determined by laws of labour market and state regulations are evaluated. In the fourth part econometric model of relation between taxes and social payments is presented. Quantitative relations of these processes are revealed. The monograph is devoted to scientific workers, students, creators of tax and labour policy who are interested in problems of taxes and labour market.
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Evaluation of road investment project effectiveness ; Investicinių automobilių kelių projektų efektyvumo įvertinimas
Roads in Lithuania are financed only from collected road taxes; however, this funding is not sufficient for road maintenance and improvement. Lithuanian Road Administration under the Ministry of Transport and Communications allocates the funding received from European Regional Development Fund as follows: improvement of pavement of regional roads, implementation of traffic safety and environmental measures, and implementation of Gravel Roads Paving Programme. Since 2004 road projects in Lithuania have been financed from European Union funds. Unfortunately these financial resources are not sufficient for the implementation of all road investment projects in Lithuania. The problem of selecting the most effective road investment projects is becoming more and more acute. Road investment project alternatives have to be appraised in an integrated manner using mathematical models in addition to economic, social and environmental criteria. Scientific problem – road investment projects are often appraised from economic, social and environmental viewpoints separately by applying different mathematical models and without using the principle of sustainable development and multi-criteria appraisal methods for integrated analysis of road investments. [.]
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Evaluation of road investment project effectiveness ; Investicinių automobilių kelių projektų efektyvumo įvertinimas
Roads in Lithuania are financed only from collected road taxes; however, this funding is not sufficient for road maintenance and improvement. Lithuanian Road Administration under the Ministry of Transport and Communications allocates the funding received from European Regional Development Fund as follows: improvement of pavement of regional roads, implementation of traffic safety and environmental measures, and implementation of Gravel Roads Paving Programme. Since 2004 road projects in Lithuania have been financed from European Union funds. Unfortunately these financial resources are not sufficient for the implementation of all road investment projects in Lithuania. The problem of selecting the most effective road investment projects is becoming more and more acute. Road investment project alternatives have to be appraised in an integrated manner using mathematical models in addition to economic, social and environmental criteria. Scientific problem – road investment projects are often appraised from economic, social and environmental viewpoints separately by applying different mathematical models and without using the principle of sustainable development and multi-criteria appraisal methods for integrated analysis of road investments. [.]
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Evaluation of road investment project effectiveness ; Investicinių automobilių kelių projektų efektyvumo įvertinimas
Roads in Lithuania are financed only from collected road taxes; however, this funding is not sufficient for road maintenance and improvement. Lithuanian Road Administration under the Ministry of Transport and Communications allocates the funding received from European Regional Development Fund as follows: improvement of pavement of regional roads, implementation of traffic safety and environmental measures, and implementation of Gravel Roads Paving Programme. Since 2004 road projects in Lithuania have been financed from European Union funds. Unfortunately these financial resources are not sufficient for the implementation of all road investment projects in Lithuania. The problem of selecting the most effective road investment projects is becoming more and more acute. Road investment project alternatives have to be appraised in an integrated manner using mathematical models in addition to economic, social and environmental criteria. Scientific problem – road investment projects are often appraised from economic, social and environmental viewpoints separately by applying different mathematical models and without using the principle of sustainable development and multi-criteria appraisal methods for integrated analysis of road investments. [.]
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Evaluation of road investment project effectiveness ; Investicinių automobilių kelių projektų efektyvumo įvertinimas
Roads in Lithuania are financed only from collected road taxes; however, this funding is not sufficient for road maintenance and improvement. Lithuanian Road Administration under the Ministry of Transport and Communications allocates the funding received from European Regional Development Fund as follows: improvement of pavement of regional roads, implementation of traffic safety and environmental measures, and implementation of Gravel Roads Paving Programme. Since 2004 road projects in Lithuania have been financed from European Union funds. Unfortunately these financial resources are not sufficient for the implementation of all road investment projects in Lithuania. The problem of selecting the most effective road investment projects is becoming more and more acute. Road investment project alternatives have to be appraised in an integrated manner using mathematical models in addition to economic, social and environmental criteria. Scientific problem – road investment projects are often appraised from economic, social and environmental viewpoints separately by applying different mathematical models and without using the principle of sustainable development and multi-criteria appraisal methods for integrated analysis of road investments. [.]
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Energijos tiekimo saugumo trikdžių scenarijų modeliavimas ; Modelling of disturbance scenarios of energy security supply
The main objective of this paper is to develop a mathematical model of energy supply disturbances for modelling energy supply disturbance scenarios. The level of energy supply disturbance depends on the impact it does to energy security of supply. The level of energy supply disturbance expressible with points: from 0 points (no impact) to 5 points (very heavy impact). It is analysed impact of this disturbance to different sectors of state: economical, social and political. The impact and caused damage of energy supply disturbance to economical, social and political sectors is understandable like a different scenario. Energy supply disturbance depends on different parameters. Scenarios of disturbances were modeled considering three parameters. For comparison there were developed 100 different long term energy supply disturbance scenarios. There were selected most common, most heavy (critical) and easiest scenarios, evaluated such scenarios probabilities and energy supply disturbance probabilities. In thia paper was used Markov chains and processes, probability distributions.
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Energijos tiekimo saugumo trikdžių scenarijų modeliavimas ; Modelling of disturbance scenarios of energy security supply
The main objective of this paper is to develop a mathematical model of energy supply disturbances for modelling energy supply disturbance scenarios. The level of energy supply disturbance depends on the impact it does to energy security of supply. The level of energy supply disturbance expressible with points: from 0 points (no impact) to 5 points (very heavy impact). It is analysed impact of this disturbance to different sectors of state: economical, social and political. The impact and caused damage of energy supply disturbance to economical, social and political sectors is understandable like a different scenario. Energy supply disturbance depends on different parameters. Scenarios of disturbances were modeled considering three parameters. For comparison there were developed 100 different long term energy supply disturbance scenarios. There were selected most common, most heavy (critical) and easiest scenarios, evaluated such scenarios probabilities and energy supply disturbance probabilities. In thia paper was used Markov chains and processes, probability distributions.
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Energijos tiekimo saugumo trikdžių scenarijų modeliavimas ; Modelling of disturbance scenarios of energy security supply
The main objective of this paper is to develop a mathematical model of energy supply disturbances for modelling energy supply disturbance scenarios. The level of energy supply disturbance depends on the impact it does to energy security of supply. The level of energy supply disturbance expressible with points: from 0 points (no impact) to 5 points (very heavy impact). It is analysed impact of this disturbance to different sectors of state: economical, social and political. The impact and caused damage of energy supply disturbance to economical, social and political sectors is understandable like a different scenario. Energy supply disturbance depends on different parameters. Scenarios of disturbances were modeled considering three parameters. For comparison there were developed 100 different long term energy supply disturbance scenarios. There were selected most common, most heavy (critical) and easiest scenarios, evaluated such scenarios probabilities and energy supply disturbance probabilities. In thia paper was used Markov chains and processes, probability distributions.
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Žemės ūkio gamybinio efektyvumo vertinimas: samprata, modeliai ir taikymai ; Analysis of the productive agricultural efficiency: concept, models and applications
The agricultural sector is the primary economic sector. Therefore, the production factors released form the agricultural production process can be employed in the remaining economic sectors, thus generating additional gross value added. In addition, substantial public support is allocated for the agricultural sector. As in the European Union, these processes are regulated by the Common Agricultural Policy. Consequently, researches in the agricultural efficiency are of great importance from the economic standpoint. Indeed, the conventional methods of the efficiency analysis suffer from certain caveats. Accordingly it is important to employ the robust mathematical - statistical methods. This paper aims to establish a methodology for analysis of the productive agricultural efficiency, based on the robust frontier and econometric methods. The paper discusses the following methodological issues: the measures of efficiency and models for efficiency analysis, methodology of the agricultural efficiency analysis. Some state-of-the art frontier methods are presented, namely partial frontiers, double bootstrap, conditional measures of efficiency, multi-directional efficiency analysis. As a result, the proposed methodology for the analysis of Lithuanian family farm efficiency enables to estimate both aggregate efficiency along with its determinants and the input-specific efficiencies. The aggregate efficiency was estimated by the means of the double bootstrap, whereas the multi-directional efficiency analysis was employed to estimate the input-specific efficiencies. The proposed methodology was employed to a sample of Lithuanian family farms.
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