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The first book to be published on the Theta method, outlining under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods This book is the first to detail the Theta method of forecasting - one of the most difficult-to-beat forecasting benchmarks, which topped the biggest forecasting competition in the world in 2000: the M3 competition. Written by two of the leading experts in the forecasting field, it illuminates the exact replication of the method and under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods. Recent developments such as multivariate models are also included, as are a series of practical applications in finance, economics, and healthcare. The book also offers practical tools in MS Excel and guidance, as well as provisional access, for the use of R source code and respective packages. Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications includes three main parts. The first part, titled Theory, Methods, Models & Applications details the new theory about the method. The second part, Applications & Performance in Forecasting Competitions, describes empirical results and simulations on the method. The last part roadmaps future research and also include contributions from another leading scholar of the method - Dr. Fotios Petropoulos. First ever book to be published on the Theta Method Explores new theory and exact conditions under which methods would outperform most forecasting benchmarks Clearly written with practical applications Employs R - open source code with all included implementations Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications is a valuable tool for both academics and practitioners involved in forecasting and respective software development.

Die Beschäftigung mit Metaphern ist ein klassisches Thema der Linguistik, das jedoch bisher in der Psychologie mit wenigen Ausnahmen keine Beachtung gefunden hat. In diesem Beitrag wird die Analyse von Metaphern, – so wie Metaphern in neueren Ansätzen der Kognitiven Linguistik verstanden werden – aus mehreren Gründen als qualitative Forschungsmethode für die Psychologie vorgeschlagen. Zum einen sind Metaphern sozial und kulturell definiert, gleichzeitig ist die Verwendung von Metaphern jedoch eine grundlegende kognitive Strategie und ein Beispiel für analoges Problemlösen. Metaphern sind kontextabhängig, gleichzeitig repräsentieren Metaphern aber abstrakte Modelle der Wirklichkeit und entsprechen damit weitgehend dem Verständnis von mentalen Modellen und Schemata in der kognitiven Psychologie. Diese vielschichtigen Eigenschaften von Metaphern ermöglichen die Untersuchung der Mikrointeraktionen von Kultur und Kognition in offenen und qualitativen Forschungsansätzen. Ebenso ermöglicht die Analyse von Metaphern eine Verbindung von quantitativ-experimentellen und qualitativen Ansätzen in der Psychologie. Die hohe Plausibilität von Metaphern in der alltäglichen Erfahrung macht die Metaphernanalyse zudem zu einem geeigneten Medium für Interventionen in angewandten Forschungsfeldern wie beispielsweise der Arbeits- und Organisationspsychologie.

AbstractAudiolingual Method (ALM) emerged in 1950s on the shake of military purposes and its popularity declined in 1970s, criticized by linguists and practitioners in the aspect of language and learning theory as well as learning outcomes, together with the rise of communicative approach and other language teaching methods. The practice is still exist nowadays especially in teaching pronunciation, recorded materials and language labs. In general, this method based on structural linguistics and psychological behaviorism; purposed to enable students to speak target language like native speakers do; develops oral communication through drills and repetition; teaches grammar inductively followed by filling gaps exercises; teaches new vocabulary through mimicry; puts listening and speaking in the top priority then develop reading and writing on spoken basis; and allows the further writing and translation in teaching students at advanced level. This paper discussed these features as guidance for teacher to teach English by using this method. Key words: audio-lingual, aural-oral, drill, and repetition

This paper articulates a methodological strategy for creating a "conceptual home" whose aim is the enabling and promotion of Latin American feminist philosophy in the context of Latin American feminist theory's concern for the relationship between theory and practice. The author argues that philosophy as a discipline is still too compromised by masculine‐dominant, Anglocentric, and Eurocentric ways of representing knowledge such that discursive and ideological impediments make it difficult to conceive and develop ways of feminist theorizing that arise from an interpellation of the philosopher by the Latin American conditions affecting her social and cultural life. The author offers a fourfold approach to grounding knowledge, based on the principles of pursuing a critical approach to knowledge, a concern for the relationship of theory and practice, an orientation toward progressive political projects of freedom and liberation in the context of Latin American history and politics, and a transformative politics of culture. It is argued that through such specific methodological concerns, Latin American feminist philosophy can attain a distinct identity and stop depending for its articulation on paradigms of knowledge whose premises are not necessarily best attuned to understand the issues it must confront in its sociocultural practice.

This edited collection provides a comprehensive overview of ethical issues associated with visual research methods. Considering the work of researchers across a range of disciplines using visual methods in research, it offers practical and thoughtful discussions of emerging methodological and ethical dilemmas in innovative projects using visual methods, either in combination with other methods or as a stand-alone method to answer new kinds of research questions. Both synthesizing central themes and addressing ethical issues particularly relevant to specific research topics, in various settings and from various disciplinary perspectives, it considers how researchers navigate and conceptualise ethical issues. With contributions discussing research conducted in Australia, Argentina, Canada, India, Korea, Norway and the United Kingdom, the book's international scope, disciplinary breadth and the range of methods and research contexts addressed will notably appeal to those seeking to understand the value, and potential ethical risks, of visual methodologies for social research

Researching Life Stories critically and pragmatically reflects upon the use of life stories in social and educational research. Using four life stories as examples, the authors apply four different, practical approaches to demonstrate effective research and analysis. As well as examining in detail the four life stories around which the book is written, areas covered include: * Method and methodology in life story research * Analysis * Reflections on analyses * Craft and ethics in researching life * Policy, practice and theory in life story research. Throughout the book the authors demystify the issues surrounding life story research and demonstrate the significance of this approach to understanding individual and social worlds. This unique approach to life story research will be a valuable resource for all social science and education researchers at undergraduate and postgraduate level.

This essay looks at the parallels between Artaud's (1958) Theatre of Cruelty and Timothy Speed Levitch's (1998) Cruise through the lens of Derrida's (1978) understanding of Artaud. The essay also engages Kristeva's (1984) psychoanalytic framework for understanding the relation between language and subjectivity as an allied effort to address the same kind of ethical commitments and ineffable qualities expressed in Artaud's Theatre of Cruelty. KeywordsArtaud, Derrida, Kristeva, Levitch, Theatre of Cruelty.

Chapter 1. Introduction of NFI and LULUCF -- Chapter 2. Definition and uncertainty of forests -- Chapter 3. Tree and its measurement -- Chapter 4. Design of sample plots methods -- Chapter 5. Forest statistics preparation and calculation -- Chapter 6. Remeasurement of sample plots -- Chapter 7. Remote sensing data and methods in NFI -- Chapter 8. Continuous NFI design of a sample plot -- Chapter 9. NFI as open data method -- Chapter 10. Analysis of forest dynamics with NFI data -- Chapter 11. Sustainable forestry analysis method based on sample plot data.