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Cover -- CONTENTS -- FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN MEXICO -- A. Inferring Fiscal Multipliers from State-Level Public Spending -- B. Estimation Results -- C. State-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers -- D. Growth Implications from the Fiscal Consolidation -- E. Conclusions -- References -- TRADE AND FINANCIAL SPILLOVERS TO MEXICO -- A. Introduction -- B. Trade Linkages -- C. Financial Linkages -- D. The Impact of Foreign and Domestic Factors on GDP -- E. A Closer Look at Changes in Monetary Conditions in the U.S. -- F. Conclusions -- References -- FIGURE -- 1. Response to a 100-bps Shock in 10-Year U.S. Bond Yield -- APPENDICES -- I. Historical Decomposition of Real GDP Growth -- II. Impulse Responses (Section D) -- II. Impulse Responses (Section E) -- CORPORATE VULNERABILITIES AND IMPACT ON THE REAL ECONOMY -- A. Rising Corporate Debt -- B. Vulnerabilities -- C. Stress Tests -- D. Impact on the Banking Sector -- E. Impact on the Real Economy -- F. Summary and Conclusion -- References -- APPENDIX -- I. Methodology for Corporate Sensitivity Analysis -- FIGURES -- 1. Corporate Debt -- 2. Corporate Leverage -- 3. Corporate Credit Metrics -- 4. Corporate Sensitivity Analysis -- 5. Impact on the Banking Sector -- BOX -- 1. Interest Coverage Ratio and Debt at Risk -- A CARBON TAX PROPOSAL FOR MEXICO -- A. Introduction -- B. Mexico's Current Excise Taxes on Fossil Fuels -- C. In Search for a New Energy Taxation Mechanism -- D. Estimating Optimal Carbon Tax Rates on Fossil Fuels for Mexico -- E. Impact of Imposing Carbon Tax Rates -- F. Conclusions -- References -- STRENGTHENING MEXICO'S FISCAL FRAMEWORK -- A. Introduction -- B. Mexico's Fiscal Framework: Recent Improvements and Pending Tasks -- C. Dealing with Exceptional Circumstances -- D. A New Nominal Anchor -- E. Fiscal Council -- F. Conclusions -- References -- FIGURE.

Cover Page -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Appendix -- Appendix Figures -- Boxes -- Figures -- Tables -- A. Current Challenges in the Energy Industry -- B. Most Significant Reform Effort in 75 Years -- C. Impact on Energy Production -- D. Resource Blessed -- E. How Long Does it Take? -- F. Production Scenarios -- 1. Illustrative Baseline Scenarios -- 2. Illustrative Downside Scenarios -- G. How Much Investment and FDI? -- H. Natural Gas Imports and Transport -- I. Electricity Reform -- J. Conclusion -- References -- The Impact of Mexico's Energy Reform on Hydrocarbons Production -- A. Introduction -- B. The Mexican Manufacturing Sector Since NAFTA -- C. The Energy Reform: How Much of a Boost for Mexican Manufacturing? -- 1. Energy Consumption (in Petajoules) of the Industrial Sector -- 2. Estimates of Elasticities of Manufacturing Output to Energy Prices. -- 3. Estimates of Elasticities When Energy Inputs Enter Separately -- 4. Differential Effects Across Subsectors -- D. Are There Additional Indirect Effects Through Spillovers? -- E. Concluding Remarks and Policy Implications -- I. Panel VAR model -- 1. Impulse Response Functions to a Rise in Electricity Prices with Subsector Spillovers -- 2. Impulse Response Functions to a Rise in Electricity Prices with Regional Spillovers -- References -- Made In Mexico: The Energy Reform and Manufacturing Output -- A. Introduction -- B. Recent Episodes of Extreme Capital Movements in Mexico -- 1. Mexico: Extreme Capital Flow Episodes -- C. Behavior of Foreign and Domestic Mutual Funds in Mexico -- 2. Evidence of Herding (net sellers as a percent of total funds) -- 3. Evidence of Herding (based on the herding index) -- 1a. Bond Funds: Evidence of Positive Feedback Trading Behavior -- 1b. Equity Funds: Evidence of Positive Feedback Trading Behavior.

Cover -- Contents -- THE IMPACT OF MEXICO'S ENERGY REFORM ON HYDROCARBONS PRODUCTION -- A. Current Challenges in the Energy Industry -- B. Most Significant Reform Effort in 75 Years -- C. Impact on Energy Production -- D. Resource Blessed -- E. How Long Does it Take? -- F. Production Scenarios -- G. How Much Investment and FDI? -- H. Natural Gas Imports and Transport -- I. Electricity Reform -- J. Conclusion -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Illustrative Baseline Scenarios -- 2. Illustrative Downside Scenarios -- MADE IN MEXICO: THE ENERGY REFORM AND MANUFACTURING OUTPUT -- A. Introduction -- B. The Mexican Manufacturing Sector Since NAFTA -- C. The Energy Reform: How Much of a Boost for Mexican Manufacturing? -- D. Are There Additional Indirect Effects Through Spillovers? -- E. Concluding Remarks and Policy Implications -- References -- TABLES -- 1. Energy Consumption (in Petajoules) of the Industrial Sector -- 2. Estimates of Elasticities of Manufacturing Output to Energy Prices -- 3. Estimates of Elasticities When Energy Inputs Enter Separately -- 4. Differential Effects Across Subsectors -- APPENDIX -- I. Panel VAR model -- APPENDIX FIGURES -- 1. Impulse Response Functions to a Rise in Electricity Prices with Subsector Spillovers -- 2. Impulse Response Functions to a Rise in Electricity Prices with Regional Spillovers -- CAPITAL FLOW VOLATILITY AND INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR IN MEXICO -- A. Introduction -- B. Recent Episodes of Extreme Capital Movements in Mexico -- C. Behavior of Foreign and Domestic Mutual Funds in Mexico -- D. Does Foreign Participation Amplify External Shock? A Time-Series Analysis of Mexican Sovereign Bond Market -- E. Concluding Remarks -- References -- BOXES -- 1. OLS and Multivariate GARCH Models -- 2. Data on Foreign Mutual Funds -- FIGURES -- 1. Mexico: Extreme Capital Flow Episodes.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- MEXICO'S STRUCTURAL REFORM AGENDA: EARLY SIGNS OF SUCCESS -- A. Introduction -- B. Energy Reform -- C. Telecommunications Reform -- D. Other Reforms -- E. Conclusion -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Real GDP Per Capita Growth -- 2. Worsening External Environment -- 3. Oil Production Forecast Vintages -- 4. Electricity Generation by Source in 2016 -- 5. Transmission and Distribution Losses -- 6. Electricity Prices for Industrial End-Users -- 7. Oil vs. Gas in Electricity Generation -- 8. Investment in the Energy Sector -- 9. FDI in Telecommunications Sector -- 10. Evolution of Market Shares in Mexico's Telecoms Market -- 11. Telecommunications Prices -- 12. Access to Telecommunication Services -- 13. Telecom Sector Growth -- 14. Fiscal Revenue -- 15. Employment -- 16. Credit Depth and Financial Inclusion -- STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES AND RESOURCE MISALLOCATION IN MEXICO -- A. Introduction -- B. Theoretical Background -- C. Data -- D. TFP Gains from Reducing Resource Misallocation in Mexico -- E. Regression Analysis -- F. Conclusion -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Potential TFP Gains from Reducing Resource Misallocation by State and Sector -- 2. Variation in Resource Misallocation across Mexican States -- TABLES -- 1. Baseline and Robustness -- 2. Alternative Controls -- ANNEX -- I. Variable Definitions and Sources.

Political, economic, and social issues; 7 articles.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND POLICIES -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- THE FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE AND REVIEW OF QUALIFICATION -- SAFEGUARDS ASSESSMENT -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Trade and Financial Linkages Between Mexico and the United States -- 2. The Updated External Economic Stress Index -- FIGURES -- 1. Evolution of Selected Financial Market Indicators -- 2. Real Sector -- 3. Labor Market Indicators -- 4. Prices and Inflation -- 5. Financial Sector -- 6. Fiscal Sector -- 7. External Sector -- 8. Reserve Coverage in an International Perspective, 2016 -- 9. Nonfinancial Corporate Sector -- 10. Banking System -- 11. Qualification Criteria -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic, Financial, and Social Indicators -- 2. Statement of Operations of the Public Sector, Authorities' Presentation -- 3. Statement of Operations of the Public Sector, GFSM 2001 Presentation -- 4. Summary Balance of Payments -- 5. Financial Soundness Indicators -- 6. Financial Indicators and Measures of External Vulnerabilities -- 7. Baseline Medium-Term Projections -- 8. Capacity to Repay Indicators -- APPENDICES -- I. External Debt Sustainability Analysis -- II. Public Debt Sustainability Analysis.