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Cover -- CONTENTS -- FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN MEXICO -- A. Inferring Fiscal Multipliers from State-Level Public Spending -- B. Estimation Results -- C. State-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers -- D. Growth Implications from the Fiscal Consolidation -- E. Conclusions -- References -- TRADE AND FINANCIAL SPILLOVERS TO MEXICO -- A. Introduction -- B. Trade Linkages -- C. Financial Linkages -- D. The Impact of Foreign and Domestic Factors on GDP -- E. A Closer Look at Changes in Monetary Conditions in the U.S. -- F. Conclusions -- References -- FIGURE -- 1. Response to a 100-bps Shock in 10-Year U.S. Bond Yield -- APPENDICES -- I. Historical Decomposition of Real GDP Growth -- II. Impulse Responses (Section D) -- II. Impulse Responses (Section E) -- CORPORATE VULNERABILITIES AND IMPACT ON THE REAL ECONOMY -- A. Rising Corporate Debt -- B. Vulnerabilities -- C. Stress Tests -- D. Impact on the Banking Sector -- E. Impact on the Real Economy -- F. Summary and Conclusion -- References -- APPENDIX -- I. Methodology for Corporate Sensitivity Analysis -- FIGURES -- 1. Corporate Debt -- 2. Corporate Leverage -- 3. Corporate Credit Metrics -- 4. Corporate Sensitivity Analysis -- 5. Impact on the Banking Sector -- BOX -- 1. Interest Coverage Ratio and Debt at Risk -- A CARBON TAX PROPOSAL FOR MEXICO -- A. Introduction -- B. Mexico's Current Excise Taxes on Fossil Fuels -- C. In Search for a New Energy Taxation Mechanism -- D. Estimating Optimal Carbon Tax Rates on Fossil Fuels for Mexico -- E. Impact of Imposing Carbon Tax Rates -- F. Conclusions -- References -- STRENGTHENING MEXICO'S FISCAL FRAMEWORK -- A. Introduction -- B. Mexico's Fiscal Framework: Recent Improvements and Pending Tasks -- C. Dealing with Exceptional Circumstances -- D. A New Nominal Anchor -- E. Fiscal Council -- F. Conclusions -- References -- FIGURE.

Cover Page -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Appendix -- Appendix Figures -- Boxes -- Figures -- Tables -- A. Current Challenges in the Energy Industry -- B. Most Significant Reform Effort in 75 Years -- C. Impact on Energy Production -- D. Resource Blessed -- E. How Long Does it Take? -- F. Production Scenarios -- 1. Illustrative Baseline Scenarios -- 2. Illustrative Downside Scenarios -- G. How Much Investment and FDI? -- H. Natural Gas Imports and Transport -- I. Electricity Reform -- J. Conclusion -- References -- The Impact of Mexico's Energy Reform on Hydrocarbons Production -- A. Introduction -- B. The Mexican Manufacturing Sector Since NAFTA -- C. The Energy Reform: How Much of a Boost for Mexican Manufacturing? -- 1. Energy Consumption (in Petajoules) of the Industrial Sector -- 2. Estimates of Elasticities of Manufacturing Output to Energy Prices. -- 3. Estimates of Elasticities When Energy Inputs Enter Separately -- 4. Differential Effects Across Subsectors -- D. Are There Additional Indirect Effects Through Spillovers? -- E. Concluding Remarks and Policy Implications -- I. Panel VAR model -- 1. Impulse Response Functions to a Rise in Electricity Prices with Subsector Spillovers -- 2. Impulse Response Functions to a Rise in Electricity Prices with Regional Spillovers -- References -- Made In Mexico: The Energy Reform and Manufacturing Output -- A. Introduction -- B. Recent Episodes of Extreme Capital Movements in Mexico -- 1. Mexico: Extreme Capital Flow Episodes -- C. Behavior of Foreign and Domestic Mutual Funds in Mexico -- 2. Evidence of Herding (net sellers as a percent of total funds) -- 3. Evidence of Herding (based on the herding index) -- 1a. Bond Funds: Evidence of Positive Feedback Trading Behavior -- 1b. Equity Funds: Evidence of Positive Feedback Trading Behavior.

Cover -- Contents -- THE IMPACT OF MEXICO'S ENERGY REFORM ON HYDROCARBONS PRODUCTION -- A. Current Challenges in the Energy Industry -- B. Most Significant Reform Effort in 75 Years -- C. Impact on Energy Production -- D. Resource Blessed -- E. How Long Does it Take? -- F. Production Scenarios -- G. How Much Investment and FDI? -- H. Natural Gas Imports and Transport -- I. Electricity Reform -- J. Conclusion -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Illustrative Baseline Scenarios -- 2. Illustrative Downside Scenarios -- MADE IN MEXICO: THE ENERGY REFORM AND MANUFACTURING OUTPUT -- A. Introduction -- B. The Mexican Manufacturing Sector Since NAFTA -- C. The Energy Reform: How Much of a Boost for Mexican Manufacturing? -- D. Are There Additional Indirect Effects Through Spillovers? -- E. Concluding Remarks and Policy Implications -- References -- TABLES -- 1. Energy Consumption (in Petajoules) of the Industrial Sector -- 2. Estimates of Elasticities of Manufacturing Output to Energy Prices -- 3. Estimates of Elasticities When Energy Inputs Enter Separately -- 4. Differential Effects Across Subsectors -- APPENDIX -- I. Panel VAR model -- APPENDIX FIGURES -- 1. Impulse Response Functions to a Rise in Electricity Prices with Subsector Spillovers -- 2. Impulse Response Functions to a Rise in Electricity Prices with Regional Spillovers -- CAPITAL FLOW VOLATILITY AND INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR IN MEXICO -- A. Introduction -- B. Recent Episodes of Extreme Capital Movements in Mexico -- C. Behavior of Foreign and Domestic Mutual Funds in Mexico -- D. Does Foreign Participation Amplify External Shock? A Time-Series Analysis of Mexican Sovereign Bond Market -- E. Concluding Remarks -- References -- BOXES -- 1. OLS and Multivariate GARCH Models -- 2. Data on Foreign Mutual Funds -- FIGURES -- 1. Mexico: Extreme Capital Flow Episodes.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- MEXICO'S STRUCTURAL REFORM AGENDA: EARLY SIGNS OF SUCCESS -- A. Introduction -- B. Energy Reform -- C. Telecommunications Reform -- D. Other Reforms -- E. Conclusion -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Real GDP Per Capita Growth -- 2. Worsening External Environment -- 3. Oil Production Forecast Vintages -- 4. Electricity Generation by Source in 2016 -- 5. Transmission and Distribution Losses -- 6. Electricity Prices for Industrial End-Users -- 7. Oil vs. Gas in Electricity Generation -- 8. Investment in the Energy Sector -- 9. FDI in Telecommunications Sector -- 10. Evolution of Market Shares in Mexico's Telecoms Market -- 11. Telecommunications Prices -- 12. Access to Telecommunication Services -- 13. Telecom Sector Growth -- 14. Fiscal Revenue -- 15. Employment -- 16. Credit Depth and Financial Inclusion -- STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES AND RESOURCE MISALLOCATION IN MEXICO -- A. Introduction -- B. Theoretical Background -- C. Data -- D. TFP Gains from Reducing Resource Misallocation in Mexico -- E. Regression Analysis -- F. Conclusion -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Potential TFP Gains from Reducing Resource Misallocation by State and Sector -- 2. Variation in Resource Misallocation across Mexican States -- TABLES -- 1. Baseline and Robustness -- 2. Alternative Controls -- ANNEX -- I. Variable Definitions and Sources.

Political, economic, and social issues; 7 articles.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND POLICIES -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- THE FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE AND REVIEW OF QUALIFICATION -- SAFEGUARDS ASSESSMENT -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Trade and Financial Linkages Between Mexico and the United States -- 2. The Updated External Economic Stress Index -- FIGURES -- 1. Evolution of Selected Financial Market Indicators -- 2. Real Sector -- 3. Labor Market Indicators -- 4. Prices and Inflation -- 5. Financial Sector -- 6. Fiscal Sector -- 7. External Sector -- 8. Reserve Coverage in an International Perspective, 2016 -- 9. Nonfinancial Corporate Sector -- 10. Banking System -- 11. Qualification Criteria -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic, Financial, and Social Indicators -- 2. Statement of Operations of the Public Sector, Authorities' Presentation -- 3. Statement of Operations of the Public Sector, GFSM 2001 Presentation -- 4. Summary Balance of Payments -- 5. Financial Soundness Indicators -- 6. Financial Indicators and Measures of External Vulnerabilities -- 7. Baseline Medium-Term Projections -- 8. Capacity to Repay Indicators -- APPENDICES -- I. External Debt Sustainability Analysis -- II. Public Debt Sustainability Analysis.

The challenges faced by Mexico's rural areas are significant. Mexico's countryside is home to a large population (more than the overall population of many OECD countries) that is highly dispersed and largely living in poverty. The potential of these areas is however significant, as their vast (and young) human resources, their natural, cultural and physical assets could provide, in a more diversified economy, a greater contribution to national development. This review shows that the challenges and potential of rural areas are spatially differentiated and therefore require a place-based policy

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK -- THE ROLE OF THE FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE -- A. Access Considerations -- B. Adverse Scenario -- C. Exit Strategy -- ASSESSMENT OF QUALIFICATION -- IMPACT ON FUND FINANCES, RISKS, AND SAFEGUARDS -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. The Calculation of the External Economic Stress Index -- 2. Illustrative Adverse Scenario -- FIGURES -- 1. Recent Economic Developments -- 2. Recent Financial Developments -- 3. Qualification Criteria -- 4. External Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests -- 5. Reserve Coverage in an International Perspective, 2015

Cover -- CONTENTS -- POLICYMAKING IN A NEW POLITICAL LANDSCAPE -- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- ENSURING MACRO STABILITY AND EMBARKING ON A NEW WAVE OF STRUCTURAL REFORMS -- A. Fiscal Policy: Create Fiscal Space to Accommodate Infrastructure Needs and Enhance Progressivity -- B. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies: Continue to Strive for Stability -- C. Macro-Financial Policies: Remain Vigilant and Strengthen the Regulatory Framework -- D. Macro-Structural Policies: A New Wave of Reforms to Move to a Higher Income Status, and Reduce Poverty and Inequality -- E. Safeguards Procedures -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Mexico's Defined-Contribution Pension System -- 2. Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) -- 3. Corporate Stress Tests -- 4. AML-CFT Assessment -- 5. Crime and Economic Activity -- 6. Female Labor Force Participation -- FIGURES -- 1. Real Sector -- 2. Labor Market -- 3. Prices and Inflation -- 4. External Sector -- 5. Reserve Coverage in an International Perspective, 2017 -- 6. Fiscal Sector -- 7. Financial Sector -- 8. Banking Sector -- 9. Nonfinancial Corporate Sector -- 10. Social Indicators -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic, Financial, and Social Indicators -- 2. Statement of Operations of the Public Sector, Authorities' Presentation -- 3. Statement of Operations of the Public Sector, GFSM 2014 Presentation (In percent of GDP) -- 4a. Summary Balance of Payments (In billions of U.S. dollars) -- 4b. Summary Balance of Payments (In percent of GDP) -- 5. Financial Soundness Indicators -- 6. Financial Indicators and Measures of External Vulnerabilities -- 7. Baseline Medium-Term Projections -- 8. Monetary Indicators -- ANNEXES -- I. Risk Assessment Matrix -- II. External Sector Assessment -- III. Debt Sustainability Analysis -- IV. Staff GDP and Inflation Forecast Errors -- V. Tax Revenue Mobilization.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- KEY POLICY ISSUES -- A. Fiscal Policy -- B. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies -- C. Financial Stability -- D. Raising potential output and fostering inclusive growth -- SAFEGUARDS ASSESSMENT -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Exchange Rate Pass-through Estimates -- 2. Pemex: Key Reforms and Recent Developments -- 3. Pension Issues -- 4. Evaluating Mexico's Monetary Policy Stance -- 5. Household and Corporate Sector Balance Sheets: A Health Check -- 6. Results from stress tests of the financial system from the 2016 FSAP -- 7. Female Labor Force Participation -- FIGURES -- 1. Real Sector -- 2. Prices and Inflation -- 3. Financial Sector -- 4. External Sector -- 5. Reserve Coverage in an International Perspective, 2015 -- 6. Banking System -- 7. Labor Market Indicators -- 8. Nonfinancial Corporate Sector -- 9. Fiscal Sector -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic, Financial and Social Indicators -- 2a. Financial Operations of the Public Sector, Authorities' Presentation -- 2b. Financial Operations of the Public Sector, GFSM 2001 Presentation -- 3. Public Sector Financial Balance Sheet -- 4. Summary Balance of Payments -- 5. Financial Soundness Indicators -- 6. Financial Indicators and Measures of External Vulnerabilities -- 7. Baseline Medium-Term Projections -- 8. Net Intersectoral Asset and Liability Positions, 2015 -- ANNEXES -- I. Risk Assessment Matrix -- II. External Sector Assessment -- CONTENTS -- FUND RELATIONS -- RELATIONS WITH THE WORLD BANK -- STATISTICAL ISSUES.