There is no historical precedent for the institutional set-up of the eurozone. However, it is an arrangement that could not and cannot escape the universal laws and principles of economics. This paper tries to look generally at the consequences of this integration project from the perspective of the former monetary hegemon, Germany, whose hegemony largely ended as a result of the monetary integration method chosen. Those consequences are of course more apparent in bad times than they were in good times. We then specifically examine the problem of convergence and divergence within a currency area and discuss the issue of competitive devaluation. In the conclusion we try to formulate the fundamental dilemma faced by the former monetary hegemon. Its solution will affect those inside and outside the integration project. Adapted from the source document.
Paper deals with the European Monetary Union from perspective of Post Keynesian school of economic thought. It discusses separately arguments often proposed by mainstream economists. After the brief introduction, which highlights main differences between mainstream & Post Keynesian economic theory, work deals in sequence with trade argument often found in discussion about monetary unification, monetary issues mainly with the role of European Central Bank & lastly, work appraises European Monetary Union from international monetary arrangement perspective proposed by Post Keynesian economists. Based on this evaluation, work concludes stating that Post Keynesian economists are more likely not to be overenthusiastic with European monetary unification. References. Adapted from the source document.
Slovak Republic entered the ERM II in the end of 2005 whereby it came nearer to its strategic objective -- joining the euro area. In this paper we try to answer two questions. Section 1 examines the features and risks of the EMU. Is EMU an optimum currency area and what is the OCA scorecard of euro area? We conclude that euro area -- in spite of its indisputable benefits -- is rather a premature monetary union with asymmetric monetary policy effects and other policy asymmetries. Section 2 analyzes possible effects of the EMU on the Slovak economy. We examine the experience of other countries and compare their real convergence to average level of euro area before and after joining the EMU. The readiness of Slovak economy for euro adoption, possible obstacles on this uneasy way and the connection between income level, price level and real convergence are analysed at the end of the paper. Adapted from the source document.
The main purpose of this article is to show by selected case studies to what extent the euro has already managed to establish itself as one of the key international currencies from the point of view of various aspects, to what extent it fulfills the functions of an important international currency, and what are the prospects of the euro's position in the future. Various signals indicate that the euro already fulfills some conditions which would allow it to become a serious competitor to the dollar in a relatively short period of time. The article is also taking notice of some obstacles and drawbacks that the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has to and will have to deal with.First of all, the author deals with the question of whether the eurozone is an optimum currency area. This is one of the principal theoretical problems which has been accompanying the EMU since the very beginning. Then he shifts his attention to the question, concerning what role does the euro play in the world economy at present from the point of view of the share of the eurozone on the world GDP, trade, officialforeign exchange reserves, selected indicators offinancial markets etc. Then he deals with the role of the euro in the world monetary system -- one of the main subsystems of the world economy. Here is presented a survey of countries which have accepted the euro as its single or main currency, and also countries whose currencies are narrowly linked to the euro by means of various exchange rate mechanisms. The next part of the article outlines the potential of the euro in its "conquest" offurther regions of the world. Both those where the euro is becoming or will become the number one currency (e.g. in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe) in a foreseeable future, and those where it will compete with the American dollar (e.g. in Latin America, in the Middle East etc.). In the final part, the author attemptes (use the same tense) to point out some problems which can influence what?missing subject, if and to what extent the euro really will become a strong and stable currency. At the moment, it is not yet possible to answer concisely and clearly the question of whether the euro will become an equivalent competitor to the American dollar. It is important whether the EMU will or will not break up in the course of the coming years or decades. So far, there have not appeared any signals of this kind. It will be substantial how the member countries of the eurozone will be able to handle the first serious crisis, e.g. analogical to that of 1992-1993. At that time, the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) was abandonned temporarily by the 1talian lira and permanently by the British pound. This crisis of the European monetary system has shown the difficulty or even incapacity to set such a monetary policy which would be simultaneously advantageous for all member countries of a certain monetary system. The question is whetlLer it is possible considering there are usually big differences in economical standing between individual countries. A similar or even a more serious crisis could emerge in a longer time horizon. The EMU thus stays a long term project and a long distance run. It is, however, possible to assume that within the next ten years, it could become totally clear whether the EMU project is a great success or a great error. Adapted from the source document.
The paper deals with the monetary policy of the European Central Bank & its effects on economic development of the Czech economy & other new members of EU from the perspective of Post-Keynesian monetary economics. In the first part the basic principles of contemporary Post-Keynesian monetary theory of relative endogeneity of money are shortly presented. The second part concentrates on the Post-Keynesian criticism of the institutional arrangement of the ECB & its monetary policy. The closing part treats issues concerning potential effects of the policy of the ECB in the given institutional framework on economic development of the Czech economy & economies of other less developed members of EU after joining the Eurozone. Possible adverse effects on the process of real convergence are discussed & alternative policies eliminating this danger are presented. Adapted from the source document.
The paper evaluates some policy dilemmas the Czech monetary policy will face on the way towards adopting common currency. The assessment of the inflation criterion concentrates on the potential clash with so called real convergence showing that alleged negative influences on the catching-up process seem to be exaggerated. The reasons leading to some scepticism about the ERM-II arrangement are further explained with distinction placed on eligibility & regime selection motives when applying for the ERM-II membership. Finally, the pros & cons of inflation targeting are discussed from the perspective of promoting the fulfilment of Maastricht requirements. Attention is paid to the issue of optimal exit form inflation targeting having in mind the priority of entering Eurozone with a proper conversion rate. Tables, Graphs, References. Adapted from the source document.
In this contribution, we compare the correlation of supply & demand shocks for the countries of the euro zone & the acceding countries in Central Europe. Demand & supply shocks are recovered from estimated structural VAR models of output growth & inflation in individual countries. We find that Poland & Hungary face already a comparably high similarity with the countries of the current euro zone. However, the remaining countries show still significant differences in business cycles as compared to the euro zone. This is likely to indicate that the loss of monetary sovereignty may be costly. In turn, the integration is expected to align the business cycles of these countries in the medium run. We document a similar development for the countries of the European Union in the 1990s. 4 Figures, 22 References. Adapted from the source document.
The article is concerned with analysis of independence of central banks of the EU Member States within the framework of the ESCB, as well as independence & responsibility of the ECB, & suggests an alternative institutional embodiment of its position, reflecting the specific framework of the EMU. The system of selection of members of the ECB's Executive Board blurs a real collective responsibility towards Member States, which opens possibilities for nontransparent lobbyism. Modified system is suggested so that national banks governors have a symbolic relationship to the political representation, i.e. that they reflect a national economic policy in some way, without being bound & restricted by its formation whatsoever. Tables, References. Adapted from the source document.
2004, which was also the year of EU entry, was quite successful for the Czech economy. Economic growth accelerated, driven in particular by the investment demand & exports. After 10 years of permanent deficits, the trade balance deficit diminished significantly. The effects of EU entry, which opened new chances to the exporters, accompanied the positive impact of FDI inflows from the past. Due to acceleration of exports, industrial output registered a record high growth within the last decade. Accelerating economic growth did not provoke inflationary pressures. Two waves of VAT increase (in January & May) were absorbed until the end of the year. A strong increase in PPI resulting from high world prices of oil & gas had no spillover effect to consumer prices due to strong competition between both the producers & traders. At the beginning of 2005, economic growth continued with the same pace as in 2004, driven by investment demand & exports. Consumer demand kept on weakening, consumption of households registered the weakest growth since the end of 1998. Both the industrial production & exports reported a slowdown due to sluggish economic activity in the euro area, especially in Germany. Tables, Graphs. Adapted from the source document.
