Suchergebnisse

The development potential of the pulp and paper industries sector of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was analysed by the Pulp and Paper Industries Development Programme of FA0 in two stages: an indicative investigation in 1977 and a more intensive analysis in 1978-79. The 1978-79 analysis resulted in a decision by the econonmic ministers of ASEAN to implement the next investigative phase: that of feasibility studies. The approach to the analysis and subsequent strategy development was technical/political. This required that political aspirations and priorities by ASEAN member countries and the Association as a whole were considered in the selection of scenarios to be considered for evaluation and that the final choice of strategy was politically based. The analysis was made with the help of a linear/integer programming model designed to derive optimal allocation of paper manufacturing activities, geographically as well as over time. This allocation involved resource utilization, industry location, industry type and size, choice among optional manufacturing processes and product qualities, trade with non-ASEAN countries and intra-ASEAN product distribution. The results of the analysis indicate that ASEAN has a cost competitive advantage which allows the Association to manufacture and supply up to 90 percent of the projected internal requirement of the major grades of industrial and cultural papers in competition with the world market, without fiscal protection of the industry. All member countries of the Association, except Singapore, who has limited raw material resources, have a role to play in this intra-ASEAN supply of paper. An attempt to critically evaluate the approach and assess the implementability of the development strategy was made.

Environmental conflicts of interest are important to account for when environmental policies are designed. This paper explores the quantitative connection between urban waste water treatment, coastal eutrophication, and fish biomass in the mesotrophic Gulf of Riga (northern Europe). The probable effect on the water quality from one clearly defined abatement measure, improved urban sewage treatment has been studied. Furthermore, the implementation cost and the likely effect on total fish biomass have also been assessed. Computer simulations using the previously published model CoastMab suggested that good water quality according to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive could be achieved if urban sewage treatment would be upgraded to Nordic and German standards, and not only around the Gulf of Riga but in the whole Baltic Sea drainage basin. The Secchi depth would double according to these simulations while total phosphorus and summer chlorophyll concentrations would decrease by 54% and 53%, respectively. The total fish biomass should be expected to decrease by about 42% if "good" water quality (as defined in European Union directives) should be achieved. However, changes in total fish biomass could also be offset by changes in other important determinants such as climate related variables or fishing pressure. The study estimated that it could take about 20-40 years after abatement action for the trophic state in the Gulf to stabilise again. Upgrading urban sewage treatment to this extent would cost 468-1,118 million euros per year. Treatment could have substantial positive effects on the water quality of the Gulf but could also have adverse side effects on the total fish biomass.