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This article describes a generalization to a model of recidivism proposed earlier by Maltz and McCleary (1977). This modification allows the model to better fit data on recidivism that the earlier authors presented. The mathematical and logical derivation of the new model are presented as are two methods of parameter estimation. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated on Taylor's (1971) data set and is compared with earlier efforts. It is found that the old model's fit is more than 16 times worse than that ofthe new model.

AbstractSeventy‐one studies are reviewed which present data on the relationship between biographical predictors and recidivism in 177 independent samples of offenders. A summary table lists the number of samples in which a particular predictor was found to be related to recidivism and the number of samples in which that predictor was found to be unrelated to recidivisim. Detailed summaries of the relation between "type of instant offense" and recidivism and "age at first arrest" and recidivism are also included.

This paper presents a general solution for the estimation of the recidivism rate and the proportion of persons who will ultimately recidivate (assuming that some persons will never recidivate) based on the model proposed by Maltz and McCleary (1977). In addi tion, tests of significance for these estimates are presented. These tehniques are illustrated using data from a follow-up study of former drug abuse treatment clients.