Suchergebnisse

This comprehensive review of investment policy in Romania assesses the untapped growth potential for foreign investment, measures the significant progress recently made by Romania to improve its business environment, and identifies the most significant remaining policy challenges. This review was conducted by the OECD prior to inviting Romania to adhere to the OECD Declaration on International Investment and Multinational Enterprises.--Publisher summary

Before 1989 Romania was among the most authoritarian regimes of those in the Socialist East Bloc. Nicolae Ceauçescu's secret police was among the most active, and the dictator ruled with impunity until the wave of popular revolutions that swept Eastern Europe in the autumn of 1989 reached Romania. An internal coup deposed Ceaçescu (whose body was shown on television after he was shot), but Romania did not move immediately to liberal politics as in Poland or Hungary. Democracy took time to develop, although success appears on the horizon after joining the North Atlantic Treat Organisation (NATO) in 2004 and possible inclusion in the European Union by 2007.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- Glossary -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- BANKING SECTOR SOLVENCY STRESS TESTS -- A. Macroeconomic Scenarios -- B. Top-Down Solvency Stress Test of Banks -- C. Credit Risk Estimation -- D. Market Risk -- E. Solvency Stress Test Results -- F. Solvency Tests Based on Sensitivity Analysis -- LIQUIDITY STRESS TESTS -- A. Funding Structure -- B. LCR-Based Liquidity Stress Test -- C. NSFR-Based Liquidity Stress Test -- D. Cashflow-Based Liquidity Stress Test -- STRESS TEST OF NONBANK FINANCIAL LENDERS -- A. Introduction to the Sector -- B. Results -- INTERCONNECTEDNESS ANALYSIS AND CONTAGION RISKS -- A. Domestic Contagion Analysis -- B. Cross-Border Contagion Risks -- CONCLUSION -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Summary of Romania FSAP Risk Analysis -- 2. Macroeconomic Baseline and Stress Scenarios -- 3. Balance Sheet Characteristics -- 4. Projected Default Rates Under the Baseline Scenario -- 5. Projected Default Rates Under the Adverse Scenario -- 6. Credit Losses Under the Adverse Scenario -- 7. Composition of Securities Portfolios -- 8. Stress Test Results -- 9. Single Factor Sensitivity Tests -- 10. Structure of Funding and HQLA Composition -- 11. LCR Ratio, December 2016 -- 12. NSFR ASF and RSF Factors -- 13. NBFLs-Composition of the Balance Sheet and Credit Portfolio -- 14. NBFLs-NPLs, Coverage and Capital Ratios -- 15. NBFLs-Results of the Sensitivity Test -- 16. Domestic Interbank Exposure -- 17. Bank-NBFL Exposures -- 18. Direct Exposures of Parent Banks to NBFLs -- 19. Cross-Border Exposure -- TABLES -- 1. Recommendations from Stress Testing and Risk Assessment -- 2. FSAP Stress Test Adverse Scenario -- 3. FSAP Stress Test Baseline and Adverse Scenarios -- 4. Hurdle Rates for the Banking Sector Solvency Stress Tests -- 5. Banking Sector Solvency Stress Test Results -- 6. Banking Sector LCR Stress Test Results

Cover -- CONTENTS -- Glossary -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- BACKGROUND -- A. Introduction -- B. Institutional Arrangements -- C. Scope -- FOUNDATIONS OF ROMANIA'S CRISIS MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK -- A. Resolution Regime -- B. Deposit Insurance -- C. Liquidity Assistance -- D. Liquidation Regime -- AREAS FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING -- A. Institutional Arrangements for Bank Resolution and Crisis Preparedness -- B. Deposit Insurance Policies and Operations -- C. Emergency Liquidity Assistance Policies -- D. Involvement of NBR in Liquidation Regime -- BOXES -- 1. Implementation of the 2010 FSAP Key Recommendations in the Area of Crisis Management -- 2. Key Elements of the Bank Resolution and Recovery Directive -- TABLES -- 1. Main Recommendations -- 2. FGDB: Key Indicators -- ANNEXES -- I. Key Regulatory and Organizational Measures Since 2010 -- II. The Simulation Exercise of 2013

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- POLICY DISCUSSIONS -- A. Lower Fiscal Deficit, Better Budget Composition, and Quality Measures -- B. Tighter Monetary Stance and More Flexible Exchange Rate -- C. More Resilient Financial Sector -- D. Reforms to Stimulate Investment and Growth -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. The Current Account Deterioration -- 2. Potential Consequences of the New Pension Law -- FIGURES -- 1. Consumption-Led Growth and Imbalances -- 2. Real Sector, 2007-19 -- 3. External Sector, 2007-19 -- 4. Labor Market, 2007-19 -- 5. Monetary Sector, 2007-19 -- 6. Fiscal Operations, 2008-20 -- 7. Financial Sector, 2007-18 -- 8. Financial Developments, 2013-19 -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2013-20 -- 2. Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework, Current Policies, 2015-24 -- 3. Balance of Payments, 2015-24 -- 4. Gross External Financing Requirements, 2015-20 -- 5a. General Government Operations, 2015-2024 (In percent of GDP) -- 5b. General Government Operations, 2015-2024 (In percent of lei) -- 5c. Consolidated General Government Balance Sheet, 2012-2017 -- 6. Monetary Survey, 2014-20 -- 7. Financial Soundness Indicators, 2010-18 -- ANNEXES -- I. Summary and Evolution of December 2018 GEO 114 Policy Measures -- II. Potential Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities -- III. Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM) -- IV. Implementation of the 2018 Article IV Key Recommendations -- V. Debt Sustainability Analysis -- VI. External Sector Assessment -- VII. Implementation of FSAP 2018: Key Recommendations -- CONTENTS -- FUND RELATIONS -- COLLABORATIONS WITH OTHER INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS -- STATISTICAL ISSUES.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- Glossary -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY -- A. Information and Methodology Used for Assessment -- INSTITUTIONAL AND MARKET STRUCTURE -- PRECONDITIONS FOR EFFECTIVE BANK SUPERVISION -- A. Sound and Sustainable Macroeconomic Policies -- B. Framework for Financial Stability Policy Formulation -- C. A Well-Developed Public Infrastructure -- D. Framework for Crisis Management, Recovery, and Resolution -- E. Public Safety Net -- F. Effective Market Discipline -- MAIN FINDINGS -- A. Responsibilities, Objectives, Powers, Independence, and Accountabilities (CPs 1-2) -- B. Ownership, Licensing, and Structure (CPs 4-7) -- C. Ongoing Supervision (CPs 8-10, 12) -- D. Corrective and Sanctioning Powers (CP 11) -- E. Cooperation and Cross-Border Banking Supervision (CPs 3, 13) -- F. Corporate Governance, Risk Management, Internal Control and Audit (CPs 14, 15, 26) -- G. Capital Adequacy and Liquidity Risk (CPs 16, 24) -- H. Credit Risk, and Problem Assets (CPs 17-18) -- I. Related Parties Transactions, Concentration, and Country risks (CPs 19-21) -- J. Market Risk, Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book, and Operational Risk (CPs 22, 23, 25) -- K. Financial Reporting, Auditing and Disclosure (CPs 26-28) -- L. Abuse of Financial Services (CP 29) -- DETAILED ASSESSMENT -- A. Supervisory Powers, Responsibilities, and Functions -- B. Prudential Regulations and Requirements -- SUMMARY COMPLIANCE OF BASE CORE PRINCIPLES -- RECOMMEDED ACTIONS AND AUTHORITIES' COMMENTS -- A. Recommended Actions -- B. Authorities' Response to the Assessment -- BOX -- 1. The 2012 Revised Core Principles -- TABLE -- 1. Overview of the Structure of the Banking System (As of end-2016).

KEY ISSUESStand-by Arrangement (SBA): A 24-month SBA with access of SDR 1,751.34 million (about ?1.98 billion, 170 percent of quota) was approved by the Executive Board on September 27, 2013. The second and third tranches of SDR 194.7 million each (cumulative SDR 584.1 million) would be made available upon completion of the first and second reviews. Balance-of-payments assistance of ?2 billion is also available from the European Union (EU). The authorities treat both arrangements as precautionary.Program status: Four of five end-December 2013 quantitative performance criteria and four of five