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"November 2002." ; Includes bibliographical references (p. 63-69). ; Introduction -- Political personality profile -- Saddam's psychological characteristics: malignant narcissism -- Saddam at the crossroads -- Threats to Saddam's survival after the conflict -- Fault lines in the family -- Strengthening international support -- Buying off superpowers: Russia as an example -- A "return" to Islam as a survival technique -- Why weapons of mass destruction -- Use of international crises: sustaining power and weakening internal threats -- Conclusion. ; Mode of access: Internet.

The implications of Saddam Hussein's capture for the US-led coalition's Iraqi policy are considered. Rather than delineate Hussein's incarceration as a tremendous accomplishment for the forces of democracy and anti-terrorism, it is suggested that the US military could have captured Hussein at any time since 1992. Indeed, it is stressed that Hussein's capture raises several questions, eg, will Iraq's political situation now explode and will coalition forces produce evidence that Iraq was manufacturing weapons of mass destruction. It is subsequently asserted that the US should receive blame for economic and political problems that emerge within post-Hussein Iraq. In addition, it is speculated that further violence may erupt throughout Iraq and that the country could be divided into smaller Arab and Kurdish states unless the United Nations plays a greater role in Iraq's reconstruction.

If Saddam Hussein is overthrown by an internal coup, his regime could be succeeded by something similar, albeit with softer edges. A US-led invasion, however, could cause the United States to embark on an ambitious plan for "state reconstruction". In doing so, the stamina of the United States will be severely tested by the resistance of the "shadow state", the lure of communal politics, the indispensability of the security forces and the temptations of massive oil revenues. Faced by regional states determined to play a "spoiler" role, the United States may reduce its exposure and accept much of the status quo in Iraq. Saddam would have gone, but the Iraqis would be left a government little more representative than they have at present. (Survival / SWP)

Saddam Hussein inicia su carrera militar como miembro del Partido BAAS (Partido del Renacimiento Árabe Socialista) de ideología nacionalista y revolucionaria. En 1959 organiza un ataque en contra del primer ministro Abdel Karim Kassem de la primera república de Irak y, al fracasar el intento, se ve obligado al exilio en Egipto, donde Gamal Abdel Nasser lo toma bajo su protección y le facilita la entrada a la Universidad de El Cairo; ahí cursa estudios de derecho.

Enthüllungen der Sekretärin des irakischen Präsidenten Saddam Husain. (Unibibl. Tü)