nternational tobacco smuggling remains an important concern for governments, tobacco manufactur-ers and health experts alike. While often linked to other forms of illegal activities, it also directly impacts govern-ment tax and health policies. Knowledge of factors that contribute to illicit tobacco trade and the existence of smug-gling routes is strongly hampered by the lack of reliable data on bilateral flows of illicit tobacco. Therefore, recon-structing the trafficking routes and estimating the size of cross-border illicit flows are crucial steps for gaining bet-ter understanding of these crimes and enforcing actions aimed at countering them. This study is the first to use grav-ity estimation techniques to decompose aggregate illicit cig-arette inflows for which data are available into their bilat-eral components. Our approach is a simple and effective method that can serve as a complement to other methods of pinpointing international trafficking flows such as empty discarded pack data or network analysis to help in the fight against illicit tobacco flows. Policymakers, customs officials as well as law enforcement can employ the presented meth-ods as an additional tool in the fight against illicit trade. Keywords: bilateral illicit cigarette trade, gravity model, predictive estimation
Magistrsko delo raziskuje dejavnike uspešnosti mednarodnih režimov, ki jih preverjam na primeru preprečevanja tihotapljenja ljudi v času migrantske krize. Ta režim je bil med leti 2015 in 2018 na največji preizkušnji v svoji zgodovini, saj je zaradi migrantske krize število migrantov, ki so nezakonito prečkali meje Evropske unije preraslo njene zmogljivosti. Ljudje so se v želji po osnovnih človekovih pravicah začeli množično zatekati k nezakonitim in mnogokrat smrtno nevarnim načinom migriranja. Režim proti tihotapljenju migrantov je prejemal vse več kritik, vendar ga niso razvijali z namenom regulacije problema tako velikih razsežnosti. Zaradi pomanjkanja interesa je njegov namen povečanje državnega nadzora nad migracijami in meddržavnega sodelovanja. Režim je namreč lahko najuspešnejši takrat, ko vsi akterji upoštevajo vse njegove sestavine: norme, načela, pravila in pravila odločanja. V delu preverjam upoštevanje teh sestavin na primeru štirih mednarodnih organizacij: Organizacija za varnost in sodelovanje v Evropi, Evropski policijski urad, Mednarodna organizacija kriminalistične policije in Urad Združenih narodov za droge in kriminal ter petih držav: Nemčija, Madžarska, Grčija, Francija in Slovenija. Trenutne politike, usmerjene k povečevanju povpraševanja po tihotapskih storitvah, je treba preoblikovati tako, da bodo identificirani dejavniki uspešnosti zaobjeli tudi izvorne države, ki bodo lahko začele prispevati svoj delež. ; This master's thesis explores the factors of effectiveness of international regimes that I test on the case of smuggling of migrants during the migrant crisis. This regime had its greatest trial in its history between the years 2015 and 2018 why because the migrant crisis increased the number of migrants that could legally cross the borders of the European Union. People, in the desire for basic human rights, began to massively resort to illegal and many times deadly ways of smuggling. The regime against the smuggling of migrants has begun to receive increasing criticism. However, it was not established with the aim to regulate the smuggling problem of such large proportions. Due to the lack of states' interest, its aim was to increase state control over migration and interstate cooperation. The regime can be most effective when all actors are concerned with all its components: norms, principles, rules and rules of decision-making. In the thesis I test the upkeeping of these components on four international organizations: Organization for security and cooperation in Europe, European union agency for law enforcement cooperation, International criminal police organization and United nations office on drugs and crime, and five countries: Germany, Hungary, Greece, France and Slovenia. Current policies are formed to increase the demand for smuggling services and need to be transformed in order for identified factors of effectiveness to capture countries of origin and make them contribute their share as well.
Evropska unija se je na pragu leta 2011 začela srečevati s prvimi begunci, ki so pribežali z bojnih območjih Sirije in drugih držav Bližnjega vzhoda ter islamskih držav Severne Afrike in skušali ujeti svojo svobodo, osebno varnost in prihodnost prav v državah članicah Evropske unije. Politična kriza in vojna na Bližnjem vzhodu nista pojenjali, še več, vsak dan je na tisoče ljudi po sredozemskih in balkanski poti skušalo prebežati v Evropo. Evropska unija je leta 2015 z vrhuncem migracijskih tokov v Evropo doživljala najhujšo begunsko krizo po drugi svetovni vojni. Znašla se je pred hudim migracijskim vprašanjem, na katerega pa je sama našla odgovor v pomoči in sodelovanju Turčije – države, ki je pred 69 leti zaprosila za članstvo v Evropski uniji, vendar do danes še ni postala njena polnopravna članica. Turčija danes gosti največji delež sirskih beguncev na svetu – 3,6 milijona. Z Evropsko unijo sta po mnogih letih njunega intenzivnega političnega delovanja in diplomacije odprli novo poglavje sodelovanja, lahko bi ga poimenovala kar migracijsko sodelovanje, skovali sta skupno migracijsko politiko, le ta pa je bila ovekovečena 18. marca 2016 s podpisom izjave EU-Turčija, katere namen je bil ustaviti tok nedovoljenih migracij preko balkanske poti iz Turčije v Evropsko unijo in ga nadomestiti z organiziranimi, varnimi in zakonitimi potmi v Evropo. Seveda ni ostalo zgolj in samo pri turški uslugi Evropski uniji, le-ta je bila za to pripravljena dobro plačati, skupno je Turčiji namenila tri milijarde evrov in ji obljubila še druge ugodnosti, med drugim vizumsko liberalizacijo. V Evropski uniji se danes nahaja več kot 1,8 milijona beguncev. Mnoge Evropejce skrbi za osebno varnost, Evropsko unijo pa za nacionalno in mednarodno, med najbolj rizične varnostne implikacije, ki so jih s seboj prinesli begunci, se najpogosteje uvrščata terorizem in organiziran kriminal - tihotapljenje migrantov. ; At the beginning of 2011, the European Union faced the first refugees fleeing from the war-torn areas of Syria, other Middle East countries and Islamic countries of North Africa, trying to secure their freedom, personal safety and future in the member states of the European Union. The political crisis and war in the Middle East did not subside, on the contrary, every day thousands of people took the Mediterranean and Balkan routes to reach Europe. In 2015, when migration flows into Europe peaked, the European Union experienced the worst refugee crisis after the Second World War. The EU had to face a grave migration issue and eventually settled it with the help and in cooperation with Turkey – country that 69 years ago applied for the membership in the European Union but has not become its full member to this day. Turkey today hosts the largest share of Syrian refugees in the world – 3,6 million, and after many years of intensive political activity and diplomacy, it started a new chapter of cooperation with the European Union, we could call it migration cooperation. Together, they forged a common migration policy by signing the EU-Turkey Statement on 18th March 2016. Its aim was to put a halt to the irregular migration flows on the Balkan route from Turkey to the European Union and to replace it with organised, safe and legal ways to enter Europe. Of course, Turkey was not merely doing a favour to the European Union and the EU was ready to pay well in exchange, sending 3 billion euros to Turkey and promising other benefits, including visa liberalisation. Today, there are more than 1,8 million refugees in the European Union. Many Europeans worry about their personal safety and the European Union is concerned about the national and international security. As the riskiest security implications brought by refugees are most often mentioned terrorism and organised crime – smuggling of migrants.
