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Varnostne implikacije migracijske krize na Evropsko unijo in njen odnos s Turčijo ; Security implications of refugee crisis on European Union and its relation with Turkey
Evropska unija se je na pragu leta 2011 začela srečevati s prvimi begunci, ki so pribežali z bojnih območjih Sirije in drugih držav Bližnjega vzhoda ter islamskih držav Severne Afrike in skušali ujeti svojo svobodo, osebno varnost in prihodnost prav v državah članicah Evropske unije. Politična kriza in vojna na Bližnjem vzhodu nista pojenjali, še več, vsak dan je na tisoče ljudi po sredozemskih in balkanski poti skušalo prebežati v Evropo. Evropska unija je leta 2015 z vrhuncem migracijskih tokov v Evropo doživljala najhujšo begunsko krizo po drugi svetovni vojni. Znašla se je pred hudim migracijskim vprašanjem, na katerega pa je sama našla odgovor v pomoči in sodelovanju Turčije – države, ki je pred 69 leti zaprosila za članstvo v Evropski uniji, vendar do danes še ni postala njena polnopravna članica. Turčija danes gosti največji delež sirskih beguncev na svetu – 3,6 milijona. Z Evropsko unijo sta po mnogih letih njunega intenzivnega političnega delovanja in diplomacije odprli novo poglavje sodelovanja, lahko bi ga poimenovala kar migracijsko sodelovanje, skovali sta skupno migracijsko politiko, le ta pa je bila ovekovečena 18. marca 2016 s podpisom izjave EU-Turčija, katere namen je bil ustaviti tok nedovoljenih migracij preko balkanske poti iz Turčije v Evropsko unijo in ga nadomestiti z organiziranimi, varnimi in zakonitimi potmi v Evropo. Seveda ni ostalo zgolj in samo pri turški uslugi Evropski uniji, le-ta je bila za to pripravljena dobro plačati, skupno je Turčiji namenila tri milijarde evrov in ji obljubila še druge ugodnosti, med drugim vizumsko liberalizacijo. V Evropski uniji se danes nahaja več kot 1,8 milijona beguncev. Mnoge Evropejce skrbi za osebno varnost, Evropsko unijo pa za nacionalno in mednarodno, med najbolj rizične varnostne implikacije, ki so jih s seboj prinesli begunci, se najpogosteje uvrščata terorizem in organiziran kriminal - tihotapljenje migrantov. ; At the beginning of 2011, the European Union faced the first refugees fleeing from the war-torn areas of Syria, other Middle East countries and Islamic countries of North Africa, trying to secure their freedom, personal safety and future in the member states of the European Union. The political crisis and war in the Middle East did not subside, on the contrary, every day thousands of people took the Mediterranean and Balkan routes to reach Europe. In 2015, when migration flows into Europe peaked, the European Union experienced the worst refugee crisis after the Second World War. The EU had to face a grave migration issue and eventually settled it with the help and in cooperation with Turkey – country that 69 years ago applied for the membership in the European Union but has not become its full member to this day. Turkey today hosts the largest share of Syrian refugees in the world – 3,6 million, and after many years of intensive political activity and diplomacy, it started a new chapter of cooperation with the European Union, we could call it migration cooperation. Together, they forged a common migration policy by signing the EU-Turkey Statement on 18th March 2016. Its aim was to put a halt to the irregular migration flows on the Balkan route from Turkey to the European Union and to replace it with organised, safe and legal ways to enter Europe. Of course, Turkey was not merely doing a favour to the European Union and the EU was ready to pay well in exchange, sending 3 billion euros to Turkey and promising other benefits, including visa liberalisation. Today, there are more than 1,8 million refugees in the European Union. Many Europeans worry about their personal safety and the European Union is concerned about the national and international security. As the riskiest security implications brought by refugees are most often mentioned terrorism and organised crime – smuggling of migrants.
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Analiza turške zunanje politike do Zahodnega Balkana: večanje turškega normativnega vpliva zaradi plitke evropeizacije? ; Analysis of Turkish Foreign Policy towards the Western Balkans: an Increase of Turkish Normative Influence due to Shallow Europeanization?
Nasprotno prevladujoči obravnavi Turčije kot najstarejše kandidatke za članstvo v Evropski uniji (EU) in turški zunanjepolitični strategiji do Zahodnega Balkana, ki predvideva delovanje kot partnerica EU, to delo analizira Turčijo kot neodvisnega zunanjepolitičnega akterja. Na podlagi dveh raziskovalnih vprašanj o normativnih elementih turške zunanjepolitične strategije preverjam hipotezo, da zaradi t. i. plitke evropeizacije na Zahodnem Balkanu po letu 2009 prihaja do večanja turškega normativnega vpliva v tej regiji. Kot kontrolno spremenljivko obravnavam deklaratorni odmik EU od širitve na Zahodni Balkan leta 2014. V teoretskem delu naloge konceptualiziram normativni zunanjepolitični vpliv in izdelam lasten analitični model normativnih elementov zunanjepolitične strategije. Po opisu zgodovinskega konteksta zunanjepolitičnega delovanja EU in Turčije na Zahodnem Balkanu v empiričnem delu sledi največji doprinos naloge k znanosti: analiza in interpretacija primarnega dokumenta – zunanjepolitične strategije Turčije (Disisleri Bakanligi, 2018), za katero sem zagotovil prvi prevod v angleščino. Nato še identificiram in analiziram zunanjepolitične akcije Turčije, pri katerih merim normativni vpliv na družbe, trge in države regije in ga kritično ovrednotim. Ugotavljam, da ni mogoče sklepati na večji normativni vpliv Turčije v regiji zaradi plitke evropeizacije. Normativni vpliv Turčije na države je bil namreč največji med leti 2009–2012, ko je z mediacijo v srbskem delu Sandžaka in vzpostavitvijo tripartitne platforme dosegla željen ugled velike sile iz otomanskih časov. Vendar pa po letu 2013 ta vpliv upade, saj nekatere države regije izražajo večja nasprotovanja turškim zunanjepolitičnim vrednotam ali uporabljenim sredstvom. Normativni vpliv na trge in na družbe regije je sicer konstanten ; prek agencije TIKA, inštituta Yunus Emre, verske institucije Diyanet in TV nadaljevank Turčija promovira svoje družbene vrednote: muslimanska vera, diaspora, patriarhalnost in ugled velike sile. ; Contrary to the dominant consideration of Turkey as the oldest candidate for membership in the European Union (EU) and Turkey's foreign policy strategy towards the Western Balkans, which envisions acting as the EU's partner, this work analyzes Turkey as an independent foreign-policy actor. On the basis of two research questions on the normative elements of the Turkish foreign policy strategy, I am testing a hypothesis that after 2009, due to the shallow Europeanization in the Western Balkans, one observes an increase of the Turkish normative influence in this region. As a control variable, I consider the declaratory withdrawal of the EU from Western Balkans enlargement efforts in 2014. In the theoretical part of the thesis, I conceptualize the normative foreign policy influence and construct my own analytical model of the normative elements of the foreign policy strategy. Following the description of the historical context of the EU and Turkey's foreing policy in the Western Balkans, the empirical part is followed by the biggest contribution of this thesis to science: analysis and interpretation of the primary document - Turkey's foreign policy strategy (Disisleri Bakanligi, 2018), for which I provided the first translation into English. I then identify and analyze Turkey's foreign policy actions, where I measure the normative influence on societies, markets and countries of the region, and offer its critical evaluation. Findings show that it is not possible to ascertain that shallow Europeanization causes greater normative influence of Turkey in the region. Turkey's normative influence on the countries was the largest between 2009-2012, when, through mediation in the Serbian part of Sandžak and the establishment of a tripartite platform, when the state achieved the desired reputation of a great power from Ottoman times. However, after 2013, this impact declined, as some countries in the region are more likely to oppose Turkey's foreign policy values or application of instruments. The normative impact on the markets and on the societies of the region is constant ; through TIKA Agency, Yunus Emre Institute, religious institution Diyanet and TV series Turkey promotes its social values: Muslim faith, diaspora, patriarchate and reputation of great power.
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EVROPSKA SOSEDSKA POLITIKA V ODNOSIH Z AZERBAJDŽANOM, ARMENIJO IN GRUZIJO ; European Neighbourhood Policy in relations with Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia
In: S. l.
Evropska sosedska politika (v nadaljevanju ESP) je politika urejanja odnosov s sosednjimi državami EU, ki jim ni bilo ponujeno članstvo v EU. Na Južnem Kavkazu, kjer so po letu 1991 nastale države Azerbajdžan, Gruzija, Armenija, se je sosedska politika okrepila po letu 2003, ko se je spremenila politična struktura v Gruziji in, ko se je s pridružitvijo Romunije in Bolgarije EU širila še bolj proti vzhodu. Velik del »evropeizacije« te regije temelji na širjenju pojma EU »kot edino pravega« razvoja družbe s pomočjo človekovih pravic in svoboščin, demokracije, liberalizacije, urejenega pravnega reda in prostovoljnega skupnega sodelovanja ter na postopni integraciji teh držav v politični, pravni in gospodarski red EU. V magistrski nalogi iščem odgovor na vprašanje ali je ta način promocije evropskih vrednot učinkovit za povezovanje z vsemi sosednjimi državami ali pa utegne imeti negativne posledice v odnosih z njimi. S pravno, gospodarsko in politično analizo evropske sosedske politike v Armeniji, Gruziji in Azerbajdžanu, spoznavanjem njenih prednosti in slabosti, ugotavljam perspektive za prihodnji razvoj. Za oblikovanje ključnih vidikov povezovanja je pomembno poznavanje zgodovinskih, etničnih, geografskih, kulturnih in političnih razlik ter poznavanje problematike območij z velikim varnostnim tveganjem kot so Gorski Karabah, Južna Osetija in Abhazija. Države Armenija, Azerbajdžan in Gruzija se nahajajo na pomembnem območju, kjer se prepletajo geostrateški interesi Rusije, ZDA, Turčije, Irana in v zadnjem času tudi Kitajske. EU se srečuje z novimi izzivi, med katerimi vedno večjo vlogo igra njena sosedska politika do tretjih držav. Ker je v primeru Južnega Kavkaza splošno zaznati obširnost evropskih virov, t. j. dogovorov in politik (pridružitveni sporazumi, sporazumi o partnerstvu in sodelovanju, finančni instrumenti, Vzhodno partnerstvo, Sinergija Črnega morja, sporazumi po sektorjih), v nalogi ugotavljam, ali bi bilo potrebno vzpostaviti enotnejšo in s tem preglednejšo sosedsko politiko do vsake posamezne države. ; The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) is an instrument for governing relations with the EU's neighbourhood countries which are not to become members of the EU. In the South Caucasus, where Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia declared independence in 1991, the ENP was strengthened after 2003 with change of political structure in Georgia and after EU's enlargement further to the east with joinder of Romania and Bulgaria. A big part of Europeanisation of this region is based on promotion of the EU's values as being »the only right way« of developing societies, through strengthening human rights and liberties, democracy, liberalisation, the rule of law, voluntary cooperation and gradual integration of these countries into the EU's political, legal and economic framework. In this master's thesis I am looking for an answer to a question whether such way of promoting European values will result in cooperation with all the neighbouring countries or whether it might bring negative consequences in the EU's relationship with them. With legal, economic and political analysis of the ENP in Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan and with identification of the ENP's advantages and disadvantages, I am trying to find possibilities for its further development. Understanding historic, ethnic, geographic, cultural and political differences and understanding problems coming from areas considered major security risks, such as Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, is important for developing key areas of cooperation. Countries Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are located in the important area where geostrategic interests of Russia, USA, Turkey, Iran and recently China intersect. The EU has been facing new challenges, one of them being the increasing importance of its policy towards the neighbouring countries. As there has been a significant amount of European sources, such as arrangements and politics (e.g. association agreements, partnership and cooperation agreements, financial instruments, Eastern Partnership, Black Sea Synergy, sectoral agreements) in the South Caucasus, I am discussing in this thesis whether there should be a more unified and consequently more transparent neighbourhood policy for each partner country.
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