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DOES ECONOMIC ADVERSITY AFFECT WHETHER PEOPLE VOTE? DATA FROM THE NOVEMBER 1974 CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY ARE USED TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECT THAT UNEMPLOYMENT, POVERTY, AND A DECLINE IN FINANCIAL WELL-BEING HAVE ON VOTER TURNOUT. THESE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL FINDINGS ARE CORROBORATED WITH AGGREGATE TIME-SERIES DATA FROM PRESIDENTIAL AND MIDTERM ELECTIONS SINCE 1896.

THIS RESEARCH EXAMINES THE EFFECTS OF ELECTION CALENDARS AND BALLOT FORMS ON VOTER TURNOUT. THE BALLOT ATTRACTIVENESS HYPOTHESIS PREDICTS THAT CONCURRENT SENATORIAL AND GUBERNATORIAL RACES ON A PRESIDENTIAL-YEAR BALLOT INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT CITIZENS WILL VOTE. THE EVIDENCE IN 1980 IS THAT THIS HYPOTHESIS IS TRUE WITH RESPECT TO GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS. THE ELECTION FREQUENCY HYPOTHESIS PREDICTS THAT THE MORE FREQUENTLY ELECTIONS ARE SCHEDULED, THE LESS LIKELY IT IS THAT CITIZENS WILL VOTE IN ANY OF THEM. PRESIDENTIAL AND STATE PRIMARIES ARE A MAJOR SOURCE OF FREQUENT ELECTIONS. IN 1980, PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES, IN PARTICULAR THOSE INSTITUTED SINCE 1968, DID DEPRESS TURNOUT. RUNOFF PRIMARIES DEPRESSED TURNOUT AS WELL. STATE PRIMARIES HELD SEPARATELY FROM PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES DID NOT DEPRESS TURNOUT BY AN ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. THESE FINDINGS ARE BASED ON VALIDATED TURNOUT IN THE 1980 CPS ELECTION STUDY.

Despite relatively favorable citizen attitudes, voter turnout in American national elections is far below the average of 80% of the eligible electorate that votes in other industrialized democracies. The American institutional setting—particularly the party system and the registration laws—severely inhibits voter turnout, and probably also accounts for the unusual degree to which education and other socioeconomic resources are directly linked to voting participation in the United States.Using a combination of aggregate and comparative survey data, the present analysis suggests that in comparative perspective, turnout in the United States is advantaged about 5% by political attitudes, but disadvantaged 13% by the party system and institutional factors, and up to 14% by the registration laws. The experience of other democracies suggests that encouraging voter participation would contribute to channeling discontent through the electoral process. Even a significantly expanded American electorate would be more interested and involved in political activity than are present voters in most other democracies.

This research examines the effects of election calendars and ballot forms on voter turnout. The ballot attractiveness hypothesis predicts that concurrent senatorial and gubernatorial races on a presidential-year ballot increase the likelihood that citizens will vote. The evidence in 1980 is that this hypothesis is true with respect to gubernatorial elections. The election frequency hypothesis predicts that the more frequently elections are scheduled, the less likely it is that citizens will vote in any of them. Presidential and state primaries are a major source of frequent elections. In 1980, presidential primaries, in particular those instituted since 1968, did depress turnout. Runoff primaries depressed turnout as well. State primaries held separately from presidential primaries did not depress turnout by an additional significant amount. These findings are based on validated turnout in the 1980 CPS Election Study.

Declining levels of participation in elections and especially presidential elections, have prompted greater interest among academics and policy makers in the sources and practical consequences of low turnout. This article shows that although nonvoters have many characteristics which mark them as Democratic voters, there is no reason to believe that high turnout elections, especially at the presidential level, would benefit Democratic candidates. The lower levels of involvement and commitment which characterize chronic nonvoters and peripheral voters would simply promote greater interelection oscillation if these voters began to turn out.

We examine the characteristics of a largely ignored low-turnout group—people who have recently moved. We find that neither demographic nor attitudinal attributes explain their lower turnout. Instead, the requirement that citizens must register anew after each change in residence constitutes the key stumbling block in the trip to the polls. Since nearly one-third of the nation moves every two years, moving has a large impact on national turnout rates. We offer a proposal to reduce the effect of residential mobility on turnout and estimate that turnout would increase by nine percentage points if the impact of moving could be removed. The partisan consequences of such a change would be marginal.

United States; based on conference paper. "Ballot attractiveness hypothesis," in terms of concurrency of senatorial and gubernatorial races on a presidential year ballot; "election frequency hypothesis."