Negative advertisements and voter turnout: the evidence from Mexico
In: Colombia internacional, Heft 92, S. 135-156
ISSN: 1900-6004
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In: Colombia internacional, Heft 92, S. 135-156
ISSN: 1900-6004
World Affairs Online
Este texto es una invitación a la reflexión sobre la participación política, específicamente sobre una de sus manifestaciones: la participación electoral. La aproximación a este fenómeno, que cada día es más común como instrumento de legitimación de las democracias, reales y formales, se ha querido hacer en un nivel teórico-conceptual con el objetivo de ahondar en las discusiones que se presentan frente al concepto, para poder entenderlo de una mejor manera y, de esta forma, avanzar hacia análisis más coherentes y profundos del mismo. ; The present text is an invitation to think about political participation, but specifically to one of its manifestation: electoral participation. The study to this phenomenon, that every day is more common to legitimate the democracies, real and formal ones, has been made in a theoretical and conceptual level, looking to explain all the conceptual discussions that exist about this concept, with the final objective to understand it, as well as possible, and to be able to make a more coherent and profound analysis.
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In: RLCS: revista latina de comunicación social, 72, 629-648.
Introducción. Esta investigación pretende explorar la relación entre la abstención electoral y las nuevas formas de participación de los jóvenes chilenos y españoles, así como la percepción acerca de la política y las formas de participación en la misma más relevantes para ellos. Metodología. Para ello se realiza un análisis comparado entre Chile y España, encuestando a una muestra de 928 universitarios entre 18 y 24 años. Resultados. Los datos muestran cierta desconfianza con el actual sistema democrático. Asimismo, mientras la participación electoral disminuye en ambos países, crecen otras actividades no convencionales –offline y online–. Conclusiones. En definitiva, los jóvenes solicitan una mayor participación en los asuntos políticos. Igualmente, aunque muchos utilizan las redes sociales como canales para informarse de la actividad de los políticos, este uso sigue siendo menor comparado con el seguimiento que se hace de otros personajes públicos ; Introduction. The objective of this research is to explore the relationship between the voter turnout and the new forms of participation of young Chileans and Spaniards, as well their perception about politics and the forms of participation which seem most relevant to them. Methodology. In order to do this, a comparative analysis between the two countries, with a sample of 928 university students between the ages of 18 and 24 is realized. Results. The data showed some distrust of the current democratic system. Additionally, while voter turnout decreases in Chile and Spain, other unconventional –offline and online– political activities increase. Conclusions. Definitively, young people are seeking greater participation as citizens in political affairs. Likewise, although many students use social networks as channels to keep abreast of the activities of politicians, this use is still low compared to that of other public figures.
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In: Revista española de ciencia política, Heft 18, S. 9-27
ISSN: 1575-6548
Why is turnout higher in some countries &/or in some elections than in others? Why does it increase or decrease over time? To address these questions, I start with the pioneer studies of Powell & Jackman & then review more recent research. This essay seeks to establish which propositions about the causes of variations in turnout are consistently supported by empirical evidence & which ones remain ambiguous. I point out some enigmas & gaps in the field & suggest directions for future research. Most of the research pertains to established democracies, but analyses of nonestablished democracies are also included here. References. Adapted from the source document.
In: Revista española de ciencia política, Heft 18, S. 67-93
ISSN: 1575-6548
Meanwhile too much attention is focused in economic voting, a previous question has been hardly addressed: how the economy affects turnout rates. Does economic adversity raise the level of turnout? Or contrary: Do macroeconomic drops demobilize voters? In this paper I analyses the relationship between some macroeconomic variables & levels of turnout in Latina America between 1980 & 2000. I do it through the study of aggregated variables. Results challenge the main findings of the literature for developing countries: hard times are not related with higher turnout, though unemployment seems to have a particular relationship. In addition, the data shows political demobilization as a by product of voters disaffection. Such findings involve critical implications for accountability issues, democratic representation, & the electoral strategies of political parties. Tables, Figures, Appendixes, References. Adapted from the source document.
En este artículo se examina críticamente el saber convencional sobre la relación positiva entre la participación electoral y los resultados electorales del PSOE en las elecciones generales en España. Subrayamos la existencia de tres mecanismos causales en juego, que dan lugar a predicciones distintas sobre esta correlación y que impiden, por lo tanto, sostener una tesis tan parsimoniosa como la existente. Algunos de nuestros argumentos se comprueban empíricamente con datos agregados en el nivel de distrito de las diez elecciones generales que se han celebrado hasta el momento. ; This paper critically reviews the conventional wisdom on the positive relationship between turnout and the electoral results of the PSOE in general elections in Spain. We highlight the existence of three causal mechanisms that give rise to different predictions about this correlation and therefore undermine the existing parsimonious thesis. Some of our arguments are empirically tested with aggregate district-level data corresponding to the ten general elections held to date. ; La ayuda financiera del Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (SEJ 2006-10073 CPOL) y de la Comunidad de Madrid y Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (CCG 08-UAM/HUM-4446), y las excelentes facilidades para la investigación proporcionadas por la Biblioteca del Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencias Sociales, del Instituto Juan March.
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In: Política y gobierno, Band 14, Heft 1, S. 5-42
ISSN: 1665-2037
The 2003 mid-term federal elections in Mexico reveal that municipalities whose populations score higher on educational attainment also exhibit lower voter turnout rates, thus contradicting an empirical regularity found in Mexico and in democracies, more generally. This article uses data from the 2000 and 2003 Latinobarometro surveys and panel data from the 2001-2003 National Survey of Political Culture and Citizen Practices (ENCUP) to explore the individual determinants of this aggregate finding. It argues that this municipal-level result is a product of the fact that more highly educated citizens reduced their levels of trust in political institutions. This study shows that declining levels of trust were themselves a result of a drop in citizen assessments of institutional performance, where performance is operationalized as citizen evaluations of the political class and of the results of its actions. Adapted from the source document.
In: Revista española de ciencia política, Heft 23, S. 31-57
ISSN: 1575-6548
This article applies framing effects theories to the study of voter participation. It more specifically points to cultural frame as the critical variable in accounting for voter turnout in Catalonia -- over other variables such as age, income or education. Based on our results, the article revisits & reconsiders the so-called "differential" abstention hypotheses (that so many scholars have used to explain lower turnouts in local & regional elections than in the Spanish legislatives ones). Bayesian inference & a multilevel model are used to build up the statistical model. Adapted from the source document.
Theoretically, a voluntary vote results in low voter turnout and a stronger tendency to vote among the rich than the poor, generating what the literature calls class bias. So what leads politicians to opt for a voluntary voting regime? The object of this article is to identify the reasons that led to the reform in Chile. In methodological terms, we used three sources of information: legislative discussion, opinion polls and an unpublished survey applied to 100% of deputies some months after the reform was passed. Our results indicate that the reform was passed as a result of interaction between the strategic interests of the (center-left) government coalition and the opposition. While the coalition pushed for reform thinking that new voters would be primarily center-left, the right wing supported the proposal in the belief that their new voters would be more likely to vote given their higher income. To this was added broad citizen support for the reform expressed in opinion polls, which may have pressured the deputies. We found that in the center-left there were quick signs of repentance, since in a survey carried out some months after the reform 70% of the deputies were in favor of compulsory voting. ; Teóricamente, con voto voluntario baja la participación electoral y tienden a votar más los ricos que los pobres, generando lo que la literatura denomina como sesgo de clase. Entonces, ¿qué lleva a los políticos a optar por un régimen de voto voluntario? Considerando el caso de Chile, nuestro objetivo es identificar las razones que impulsaron la reforma. Metodológicamente, utilizamos tres fuentes de información: discusión legislativa, encuestas de opinión y una inédita encuesta aplicada al 100% de los diputados luego de aprobada la reforma. Nuestros resultados indican que la reforma se aprobó producto de la interacción entre intereses estratégicos de la coalición de gobierno (de centro-izquierda) y de la oposición. Mientras el gobierno impulsó la reforma creyendo que los nuevos votantes serían principalmente de centro-izquierda, la derecha lo hizo pensando en que sus nuevos electores tendrían mayor probabilidad de votar dado su mayor nivel de ingresos. A esto se sumó un amplio apoyo ciudadano a la reforma expresado en las encuestas, lo que pudo presionar a los diputados. Constatamos que en la centro-izquierda hubo rápidas señales de arrepentimiento, pues el 70% de los diputados –en una encuesta hecha a meses de la reforma– se mostró partidario del voto obligatorio.
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In: Revista española de ciencia política, Heft 24, S. 33-52
ISSN: 1575-6548
This article applies framing effects theories to the study of voter participation. It more specifically points to cultural frame as the critical variable in accounting for voter turnout in Catalonia -- over other variables such as age, income or education. Based on our results, the article revisits and reconsiders the so-called "differential" abstention hypotheses (that so many scholars have used to explain lower turnouts in local and regional elections than in the Spanish legislatives ones). Bayesian inference and a multilevel model are used to build up the statistical model. Adapted from the source document.
In: Revista española de ciencia política, Heft 27, S. 69-90
ISSN: 1575-6548
This article takes over, from an empirical perspective, one of the classic concerns of normative theories of democracy: political community size and citizen participation. Although it focuses on voter turnout, this paper makes a simple question: why and how the political body size can influence the political behaviour of its residents. For this purpose, we examine, from an aggregate approach, the relationship between "size" and turnout in different types of elections in Andalusia, in the period 1999-2011. Our ecological analysis of participation, by using multi-regression techniques, shows that population size is the main "civic" characteristic of localities. However, other characteristics of local contexts, such as income and subsidized agrarian population, are positively related to participation. Our results suggest that individual theories of voting behaviour should also take into account the contextual factor when offering their conclusions. Adapted from the source document.
In: Colombia internacional, Heft 64, S. 194-205
ISSN: 0121-5612
In: Revista de estudios políticos, Heft 154
ISSN: 0048-7694
The development of the pattern of territorial organization established in the Spanish Constitution of 1978 creates non-statewide institutions with legislative powers, and regional elections are held in order to choose non-national deputies. Turnout in these contests is usually lower than the one registered in the national congressional elections. The paper argues that some special groups of voters are particularly prone to vote in national but not in regional elections. This phenomenon, that is called differential turnout, is studied in the 2005 Basque Country and 2006 Catalonia regional elections. Econometric models show a relationship between voters' judgements on the performance of the regional incumbent and the quality of non-national candidates, on one side, and the propensity of differential turnout, on the other. Adapted from the source document.
The article's objective is to demonstrate that the phenomenon of abstention expressed in the 2003 federal election in Mexico was determined by four variables: disinterest in politics, to profess the Protestant religion, do not give importance to God, and prefer the government responsibility to the individual. For the author, the influence of these variables on voter turnout is not only isolated but is applied in whole; in the same way he express that the variables mentioned above are peculiar to the society that participated in that moment, and allow to think in a expression of protest, but not apathy. ; El objetivo del artículo es demostrar que el fenómeno de abstención manifestado en las elecciones federales de 2003 en México fue determinada por cuatro variables: desinterés por la política, profesar la religión protestante, no dar importancia a Dios, y preferir la responsabilidad gubernamental a la individual. Para el autor, la influencia de esas variables en la abstención electoral no es sólo aislada sino se aplica en conjunto; del mismo modo, expresa que las variables antes mencionadas son distintivas de la sociedad que participó en ese momento, y permiten pensar en una expresión de protesta, más no de apatía.
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